11/21/2008 Farm Bureau Market

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Grain & Soybean Date: November 21, 2008 Soybeans Local Elevators: (Nov) EAST AR:  770 to 810 (NC) Summ. 816 to - - - River Elevators: (Nov) MISS: 770 to 840 ; AR & White 775 to 780 (NC) Summ. 814 to 850 Ark. Processor Bids: (Nov) 770 to 800  (NC) 829 to 830 Memphis:  (Nov) 845 to - - - (NC)  n/a to - - - Riceland Foods:  (Nov) Stuttgart 800 ; Pendleton 786 ; West Memphis 840 Chicago Futures: Jan '09 down 16 at  840   Mar '09  down  15 1/2  at  847 1/4   May '09 down 15 3/4  at  855 3/4   Jul '09 down 15 1/4  at  863 3/4   Nov '09 down 15 1/4  at  854 1/4   Today's Arkansas LDP rate for soybeans is: 0¢ Soybean Comment Soybeans closed lower but managed to hold above the mid-October low. This is key support which looks vulnerable. A close below this level would open the market to the next support around $7.90. A strengthening dollar and the continued downtrend in crude oil are overpowering fundamentals which appear positive. Smaller plantings in Brazil and fairly tight projected stocks in the U.S. are long term supportive. However, like corn, index funds hold substantial positions which may have to be liquidated if oil continues to slide. Corn dropped below trading range support and closed near the next level at $3.35. A decline to $3.08 is possible if outside factors don’t show a positive undertone soon. Wheat Cash bid for November at Memphis  357 to 399; Bids to farmers at Local Elevators 386-421; River Elevators 421-466; Chicago Futures: Dec down  12 3/4  at  499    Mar '09 down 13  at  518    May '09 down  13  at  531 3/4    Jul '09 down  12 1/2  at  545 3/4    Sep '09 down  13 1/4  at  567 3/4    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for wheat is: 0¢ Grain Sorghum Cash bid for November at Memphis  390 to 433; Bids to farmers at River Elevators 311-391; Today's Arkansas LDP rate for sorghum is: 0¢ Corn Cash bid for November at Memphis   308 1/2 to 312 1/2;   new crop at Memphis   321 3/4 to 326 3/4; Bids to farmers at River Elevators  264 to 304 Chicago Futures: Dec down  25 1/4  at  338 1/2    Mar '09 down  25 3/4  at  354 1/4    May '09 down  25 1/2  at  365 1/2    Dec '09 down  25 1/4  at  400 3/4    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for corn is: 0¢ Grain Comment Wheat futures were lower again today with December moving through support at $5. This market continues to follow crude oil lower since the index funds still hold many of the long positions on the market. Wheat also has bearish fundamentals to deal with, of course. Cotton & Rice  Date: November 21, 2008 Cotton Spot Price, Grade 41 Staple 34: Memphis down 189 at  3805   Greenwood down  189 at 3805 New York Futures: Dec up  115  at  4079    Mar '09 up  160  at  4151    May '09 up  71  at  4128    Jul '09 up  84  at  4250    Dec '09 up  65  at  4650  This week's LDP rate for cotton is  17.36 cents   The estimate for next week is  19.10 cents Cotton Comment Cotton ended the week on a positive note and closed with solid gains. However, this market remains mired in the expanding economic recession. This could be the thing that puts the bottom in, and allows the market to make significant rebound at some point. Current levels would favor further acreage reduction in ’09. That would allow for reduced stocks and improving prices down the line. March support is the recent low of 39.23 cents. Producers have an opportunity to take a big LDP or POP, if they are willing to hold on to cotton and wait for the market to rally. Rice Long Grain Cash Bid for  n/a - - -  to  - - -   n/a - - -  to  - - - Chicago Futures: Jan '09 down  10  at  1331 1/2    Mar '09 down  4 1/2  at  1355    May '09 down  4 1/2  at  1377    Jul '09 down  1  at  1401    - - -   - - -  at  - - -  Today's Arkansas LDP rate for long grain rice is  0¢ medium grain rice is  0¢ Rice Comment Rice dropped down to touch the next level of support at $13.12, the 62% retracement objective. While the market managed to close above this level, it doesn’t appear to have any real “oomph” left. Vietnam continues to move rice but at values well below established MEP (Minimum Export Price). Thailand confirmed big intervention stocks sale at $460 per metric tonne. That is also below established quotes of $525 to $540. U.S. mills may also face down time in the near future if new export sales aren’t confirmed. Cattle & Hogs  Date: November 21, 2008 Cattle As reported by Federal-State Market News, receipts were 12,950 head at sales in Arkansas this week.  Compared with last week, feeder steers sold $3-6 lower, instances $10 lower on weights under 450 lbs . Steers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 101.50 to - - -   500 to 550 lbs. 93 to - - -   600 to 650 lbs. 81.50 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 87.25 to - - - Heifers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 85.50 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 76.50 to - - - Slaughter Cows, Boners 38   to   45 Light Weight 25 to 33 Bulls, Yield Grade   1   1000   to   2100 lbs.   50   to   56, high dressing 56.50-61 Midwest Steers   were steady to $1 higher   at   87   to   88 Panhandle Steers   were $1 higher   at   88   to   - - - Oklahoma City Feeders Steers 500 to 550 lbs. 91 to 115.50   600 to 650 lbs. 84 to 100.10 Heifers 500 to 550 lbs. 67.50 to 91.50   600 to 650 lbs. 78.50 to 94 Chicago Futures: Live Cattle: Dec down 90 at 8490   Feb '09 down 102 at 8550 Feeders: Jan '09 down 35 at 8940   May '09 up 5 at 9095 Cattle Comment Cattle were lower today. Despite the fact that the market is heavily oversold and trading at a deep discount to cash, the technical outlook is now quite bearish. General economic concerns continue to weigh on the market as traders worry about beef demand. Sharp losses in crude oil were a negative factor as well. Hogs Peoria: were     steady   at   32.50   to   - - - Chicago Futures: Dec down 7 at 5687   Feb '09 down 57 at 6410 Sheep St. Paul sheep shorn slaughter lambs   at   n/a   to   - - - Hogs Comment Hogs were mostly lower with nearby December trading a bit higher. Improving pork and cash hog values were supportive, but general economic concerns and lower crude oil are keeping a lid on upside potential. Poultry  Date: November 21, 2008 Eggs New York:  Ex. Lg. 124-128; Lg. 122-126; Med. 103-107; Chicago:  Ex. Lg. 114-122; Lg. 112-120; Med. 99-107; Eastern Region Turkeys Hens: 8-16 lbs. 83.50-87 Toms: 16-24 lbs. 83.50-86   Delmarva Broilers U.S. Grade A Trade sentiment was firm. Demand entering the weekend was seasonally fair to moderate, and trading limited to regular commitments as the holiday approaches. Supplies were at least sufficient to satisfy current trade needs. In production areas, live supplies were moderate at mostly desirable weights. ---------------------------------------- HOW TO UNSUBSCRIBE You are receiving this newsletter because you requested that your e-mail address be added to the Arkansas Farm Bureau Market Report. To unsubscribe or change your subscription information, go to http://www.arfb.com/commodity_marketing/email/ ---------------------------------------- QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS? If you have any comments or questions about this e-newsletter please e-mail us at mktrpt@arfb.com Arkansas Farm Bureau 10720 Kanis Road Little Rock, AR 72211 501-224-4400 Copyright 2008 Arkansas Farm Bureau, Inc. All rights reserved Terms of Use