11/17/2008 Farm Bureau Market Report

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Grain & Soybean Date: November 17, 2008 Soybeans Local Elevators: (Nov) EAST AR:  832 to 862 (NC) Summ. 862 to - - - River Elevators: (Nov) MISS: 822 to 894 ; AR & White 831 to 842 (NC) Summ. 876 to 913 Ark. Processor Bids: (Nov) 818 to 862  (NC) 887 to 889 Memphis:  (Nov) 891 1/2 to 896 1/2 (NC)  n/a to - - - Riceland Foods:  (Nov) Stuttgart 862 ; Pendleton 848 ; West Memphis 879 Chicago Futures: Jan '09 up 10 1/2 at  906 1/2   Mar '09  up  10 1/2  at  915 1/2   May '09 up 10 1/2  at  926 1/4   Jul '09 up 11  at  935   Nov '09 up 11 1/2  at  931 1/2   Today's Arkansas LDP rate for soybeans is: 0¢ Soybean Comment Soybeans closed slightly higher for the day after receiving another strong export report. Exports are running a little ahead of a year ago, as opposed to a 15% decline projected by USDA in this year’s supply demand report. That is particularly surprising giving recent strength in the dollar. January continues to trade in a dollar range with resistance around $9.50 and support near $8.50. This market has upside potential, as indicated by improving cash basis levels in the Midwest, however it may be in late December or January before the market can make much headway. Corn showed a good gain today, despite continued slow export movement. Unlike soybeans, corn is running almost 50% below year ago movement. USDA is projecting a 23% decline from last year, so movement will need to pick up soon, or we will see adjustments in subsequent reports. Key resistance for December corn remains $4.20, with support around $3.60. Wheat Cash bid for November at Memphis  383 3/4 to 428 3/4; Bids to farmers at Local Elevators 413-458; River Elevators 457-473; Chicago Futures: Dec down  20 1/2  at  533 3/4    Mar '09 down 20 1/2  at  554    May '09 down  20 3/4  at  568 1/4    Jul '09 down  20 1/2  at  582 1/2    Sep '09 down  21 1/4  at  605 1/4    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for wheat is: 0¢ Grain Sorghum Cash bid for November at Memphis  891 1/2 to 896 1/2; Bids to farmers at River Elevators 396-477; Today's Arkansas LDP rate for sorghum is: 0¢ Corn Cash bid for November at Memphis   355 3/4 to - - -;   new crop at Memphis   371 to - - -; Bids to farmers at River Elevators  312 to 352 Chicago Futures: Dec up  5 1/2  at  385 3/4    Mar '09 up  6  at  403    May '09 up  6 1/4  at  414 3/4    Dec '09 up  6 1/2  at  449 1/2    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for corn is: 0¢ Grain Comment Wheat futures plunged lower today after a half-hearted attempt at a rebound last week. Fund liquidation of long positions spurred today’s selloff. Global wheat production is expected to set a record this year. Favorable winter wheat crop conditions are also a negative factor. However, support just above $5 looks firm for now. Cotton & Rice  Date: November 17, 2008 Cotton Spot Price, Grade 41 Staple 34: Memphis down 89 at  3662   Greenwood down  89 at 3662 New York Futures: Dec down  173  at  3930    Mar '09 down  105  at  4146    May '09 down  107  at  4247    Jul '09 down  63  at  4408    Dec '09 down  78  at  4752  This week's LDP rate for cotton is  15.88 cents   The estimate for next week is  17.11 cents Cotton Comment Cotton remains mired in the expanding economic recession. However, this could be the thing that puts the bottom in, and allows the market to make significant rebound at some point. Current levels would favor further acreage reduction in ’09. That would allow for reduced stocks and improving prices down the line. March support is the recent low of 39.23 cents. Rice Long Grain Cash Bid for  n/a - - -  to  - - -   n/a - - -  to  - - - Chicago Futures: Jan '09 down  25 1/2  at  1402    Mar '09 down  25  at  1430 1/2    May '09 down  26  at  1458 1/2    Jul '09 down  26  at  1485 1/2    - - -   - - -  at  - - -  Today's Arkansas LDP rate for long grain rice is  0¢ medium grain rice is  0¢ Rice Comment Rice gave back late week gains as the market closed lower. Tight farmer holding is a positive, but general tone of the market remains somewhat negative. Asian growths have continued to work lower with Vietnam confirming sales at levels well below the established Minimum Export Price of $500 per tonne. Thai offerings are somewhat higher but they recently offered old intervention stocks, and indicated offers were too low. With new crop harvest and a new intervention program near, they could be looking at problems. U.S. mills may also face down time in the near future if new export sales aren’t confirmed. January futures could still move lower with the 62% retracement objective of $13.12 on the long term charts one possibility. Cattle & Hogs  Date: November 17, 2008 Cattle As reported by Federal-State Market News, receipts were 1,999 head at sales in Ash Flat.  Compared with last week, feeder steers mostly steady to $3 lower . Steers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 111.75 to - - -   500 to 550 lbs. 103.75 to - - -   600 to 650 lbs. 87 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 103.75 to - - - Heifers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 86.75 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 79 to - - - Slaughter Cows, Boners 38   to   44 Light Weight 27 to 31 Bulls, Yield Grade   1   1000   to   2100 lbs.   50   to   55, high dressing 56-57.50 Midwest Steers   were $3 lower to steady   at   90   to   93 Panhandle Steers   were $3 lower to steady   at   90   to   93 Oklahoma City Feeders Steers 500 to 550 lbs. 105 to 114.50   600 to 650 lbs. 99 to 102.50 Heifers 500 to 550 lbs. 84 to 88.75   550 to 600 lbs. 85 to 89.50 Chicago Futures: Live Cattle: Dec down 175 at 8830   Feb '09 down 165 at 8902 Feeders: Jan '09 down 137 at 9390   May '09 down 180 at 9535 Cattle Comment Cattle futures were lower across the board. Economic weakness is keeping the market under pressure as overall demand for beef is expected to remain weak. December has support at the recent low of $87.10 and is trading at a steep discount to cash prices, which should limit the downside. Hogs Peoria: were     steady   at   32   to   32.5 Chicago Futures: Dec down 27 at 5530   Feb '09 down 52 at 6205 Sheep St. Paul sheep shorn slaughter lambs   at   n/a   to   - - - Hogs Comment Hogs also posted losses. The rising dollar is limiting pork exports, while ample hog numbers will weigh on long term values. Poultry  Date: November 17, 2008 Eggs New York:  Ex. Lg. 124-128; Lg. 122-126; Med. 107-111; Chicago:  Ex. Lg. 114-122; Lg. 112-120; Med. 99-107; Eastern Region Turkeys Hens: 8-16 lbs. 87-94 Toms: 16-24 lbs. 87-93   Delmarva Broilers U.S. Grade A Trade sentiment was steady to fully steady. Demand following the weekend was fair to moderate with limited trading. Supplies were at least adequate to satisfy current trade needs. In production areas, live supplies were moderate at mostly desirable weights. ---------------------------------------- HOW TO UNSUBSCRIBE You are receiving this newsletter because you requested that your e-mail address be added to the Arkansas Farm Bureau Market Report. To unsubscribe or change your subscription information, go to http://www.arfb.com/commodity_marketing/email/ ---------------------------------------- QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS? If you have any comments or questions about this e-newsletter please e-mail us at mktrpt@arfb.com Arkansas Farm Bureau 10720 Kanis Road Little Rock, AR 72211 501-224-4400 Copyright 2008 Arkansas Farm Bureau, Inc. All rights reserved Terms of Use