11/20/2008 Farm Bureau Market Report

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Grain & Soybean Date: November 20, 2008 Soybeans Local Elevators: (Nov) EAST AR:  786 to 826 (NC) Summ. 832 to - - - River Elevators: (Nov) MISS: 781 to 856 ; AR & White 791 to 796 (NC) Summ. 830 to 865 Ark. Processor Bids: (Nov) 786 to 816  (NC) 845 to 846 Memphis:  (Nov) 861 to - - - (NC)  n/a to - - - Riceland Foods:  (Nov) Stuttgart 816 ; Pendleton 802 ; West Memphis 856 Chicago Futures: Jan '09 down 41 at  856   Mar '09  down  15 1/4  at  380   May '09 down 15 1/2  at  391   Jul '09 down 43 1/2  at  879   Nov '09 down 45 1/2  at  869 1/2   Today's Arkansas LDP rate for soybeans is: 0¢ Soybean Comment Soybeans were sharply lower despite another positive export report. As has been said several times before, crude oil is dominating fundamentals in the grains. Index funds still maintain big open interest and declining oil simply makes it necessary to sell grains. Today’s decline dropped beans near the bottom of a 6 week trading range. Most of the trading has been above $8.50, but in mid-October the market hit the recent low of $8.38 ½. That remains key support. A close below that level would open the market to the next support around $7.90. Corn also lost ground, closing near the bottom of its trading range at $3.60 ¼. The next support is $3.35 and then $3.08. Strength in the dollar and slow export movement continue to weigh on corn. Wheat Cash bid for November at Memphis  366 3/4 to 411 3/4; Bids to farmers at Local Elevators 398-433; River Elevators 433-458; Chicago Futures: Dec down  15 1/4  at  511 3/4    Mar '09 down 15 1/2  at  531    May '09 down  15 3/4  at  544 3/4    Jul '09 down  16 1/4  at  558 1/4    Sep '09 down  15 1/2  at  581    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for wheat is: 0¢ Grain Sorghum Cash bid for November at Memphis  426 to 471; Bids to farmers at River Elevators 391-438; Today's Arkansas LDP rate for sorghum is: 0¢ Corn Cash bid for November at Memphis   333 3/4 to 335 3/4;   new crop at Memphis   347 to - - -; Bids to farmers at River Elevators  290 to 330 Chicago Futures: Dec down  15  at  363 3/4    Mar '09 down  15 1/4  at  380    May '09 down  15 1/2  at  391    Dec '09 down  15 1/4  at  426    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for corn is: 0¢ Grain Comment Wheat futures gapped lower on economic concerns. Yesterday’s losses in the Dow carried over into commodities today. Wheat also has record-setting world supplies to deal with. However, December managed to hold above support at $5. Cotton & Rice  Date: November 20, 2008 Cotton Spot Price, Grade 41 Staple 34: Memphis down 187 at  3616   Greenwood down  187 at 3616 New York Futures: Dec down  123  at  3958    Mar '09 down  189  at  3989    May '09 down  202  at  4057    Jul '09 down  199  at  4177    Dec '09 down  195  at  4585  This week's LDP rate for cotton is  15.88 cents   The estimate for next week is  17.33 cents Cotton Comment Cotton was sharply lower again today with both nearby contracts dipping back below 40 cents. However, cotton remains mired in the expanding economic recession. This could be the thing that puts the bottom in, and allows the market to make significant rebound at some point. Current levels would favor further acreage reduction in ’09. That would allow for reduced stocks and improving prices down the line. March support is the recent low of 39.23 cents. Producers have an opportunity to take a big LDP or POP, if they are willing to hold on to cotton and wait for the market to rally. Rice Long Grain Cash Bid for  n/a - - -  to  - - -   n/a - - -  to  - - - Chicago Futures: Jan '09 down  95  at  7575    Mar '09 down  105  at  8005    May '09 down  55  at  8450    Jul '09 up  100  at  8985    - - -   - - -  at  - - -  Today's Arkansas LDP rate for long grain rice is  0¢ medium grain rice is  0¢ Rice Comment Rice was hit by heavy selling in all commodities and closed sharply lower and within striking distance of support. Vietnam continues to move rice but at values well below established MEP (Minimum Export Price). Thailand confirmed big intervention stocks sale at $460 per metric tonne. That is also below established quotes of $525 to $540. U.S. mills may also face down time in the near future if new export sales aren’t confirmed. January futures could still move lower with the 62% retracement objective of $13.12 on the long term charts one possibility. Cattle & Hogs  Date: November 20, 2008 Cattle As reported by Federal-State Market News, receipts were 3,462 head at sales in Charlotte, Ratcliff & Green Forest.  Compared with last week, feeder steers sold mostly $2-5 lower, instances $10 lower . Steers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 105 to - - -   500 to 550 lbs. 97.25 to - - -   600 to 650 lbs. 89 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 80 to - - - Heifers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 83 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 80 to - - - Slaughter Cows, Boners 37.50   to   43 Light Weight 26 to 33 Bulls, Yield Grade   1   1000   to   2100 lbs.   50   to   56.50, high dressing 57.50 Midwest Steers   were $1 lower   at   87   to   - - - Panhandle Steers   were $1-1.50 lower   at   87   to   - - - Oklahoma City Feeders Steers 500 to 550 lbs. 105 to 111   600 to 650 lbs. 84 to 93 Heifers 500 to 550 lbs. 83.50 to 89.50   n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - - Chicago Futures: Live Cattle: Dec up 160 at 8580   Feb '09 up 137 at 8652 Feeders: Jan '09 down 10 at 8975   May '09 steady at 9090 Cattle Comment Cattle ended mixed. Despite the fact that the market is heavily oversold and trading at a deep discount to cash, the technical outlook is now quite bearish. General economic concerns continue to weigh on the market as traders worry about beef demand.Hogs ended mostly higher with nearby December charting a bullish key reversal. Improving pork and cash hog values were supportive. Hogs Peoria: were     steady   at   32   to   32.5 Chicago Futures: Dec up 87 at 5680   Feb '09 up 177 at 6467 Sheep St. Paul sheep shorn slaughter lambs   at   n/a   to   - - - Hogs Comment Hogs ended mostly higher with nearby December charting a bullish key reversal. Improving pork and cash hog values were supportive. Poultry  Date: November 20, 2008 Eggs New York:  Ex. Lg. 124-128; Lg. 122-126; Med. 103-107; Chicago:  Ex. Lg. 114-122; Lg. 112-120; Med. 99-107; Eastern Region Turkeys Hens: 8-16 lbs. 83.5-89 Toms: 16-24 lbs. 83.5-88   Delmarva Broilers U.S. Grade A Trade sentiment was fully steady to firm. Demand was fair to moderate, best for more traditional holiday meat items. Supplies of all sizes were sufficient to satisfy current trade needs. In production areas, live supplies were moderate at mixed, but mostly desirable weights. ---------------------------------------- HOW TO UNSUBSCRIBE You are receiving this newsletter because you requested that your e-mail address be added to the Arkansas Farm Bureau Market Report. To unsubscribe or change your subscription information, go to http://www.arfb.com/commodity_marketing/email/ ---------------------------------------- QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS? If you have any comments or questions about this e-newsletter please e-mail us at mktrpt@arfb.com Arkansas Farm Bureau 10720 Kanis Road Little Rock, AR 72211 501-224-4400 Copyright 2008 Arkansas Farm Bureau, Inc. All rights reserved Terms of Use