11/19/2008 Farm Bureau Market Report

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Grain & Soybean Date: November 19, 2008 Soybeans Local Elevators: (Nov) EAST AR:  827 to 967 (NC) Summ. 873 to - - - River Elevators: (Nov) MISS: 822 to 895 ; AR & White 832 to 837 (NC) Summ. 871 to 906 Ark. Processor Bids: (Nov) 827 to 857  (NC) 886 to 887 Memphis:  (Nov) 902 to - - - (NC)  n/a to - - - Riceland Foods:  (Nov) Stuttgart 857 ; Pendleton 843 ; West Memphis 883 Chicago Futures: Jan '09 down 5 at  897   Mar '09  down  6  at  904 1/4   May '09 down 7 3/4  at  913   Jul '09 down 7 1/4  at  922 1/2   Nov '09 down 11  at  915   Today's Arkansas LDP rate for soybeans is: 0¢ Soybean Comment Soybeans ended the day lower as overall economic concerns were once again a key factor. Concern about the big three automakers and potential for a bailout kept the market nervous from the start. January soybeans remain in a $ trading range that has persisted for the last six weeks. Large positions are held by index funds which ties the market to crude oil and thus to spreading world economic considerations. Strong export movement and improving basis levels suggest upside potential but the market has been unable to break away from the outside influences. Corn maintained much the same profile as beans and ended the day slightly lower. Unlike soybeans, corn exports have been terrible as Brazil continues to under cut the U.S. Key resistance remains $4.20 with support around $3.60. Wheat Cash bid for November at Memphis  382 to 422; Bids to farmers at Local Elevators 415-450; River Elevators 449-475; Chicago Futures: Dec down  2 3/4  at  527    Mar '09 down 3  at  546 1/2    May '09 down  3 1/2  at  560 1/2    Jul '09 down  3  at  574 1/2    Sep '09 down  3 1/4  at  596 1/2    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for wheat is: 0¢ Grain Sorghum Cash bid for November at Memphis  453 to 498; Bids to farmers at River Elevators 384-464; Today's Arkansas LDP rate for sorghum is: 0¢ Corn Cash bid for November at Memphis   343 3/4 to 348 3/4;   new crop at Memphis   362 1/2 to - - -; Bids to farmers at River Elevators  305 to 345 Chicago Futures: Dec down  1 1/4  at  378 3/4    Mar '09 down  1 1/4  at  395 1/4    May '09 down  1 1/4  at  406 1/2    Dec '09 down  2  at  441 1/2    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for corn is: 0¢ Grain Comment Wheat futures also moved a bit lower in the wake of even more bad news about the U.S. economy. Global wheat production is expected to set a record this year, and right now U.S. wheat is over priced compared with Eastern European competition. However, support just above $5 looks firm for now. Cotton & Rice  Date: November 19, 2008 Cotton Spot Price, Grade 41 Staple 34: Memphis up 19 at  3803   Greenwood up  19 at 3803 New York Futures: Dec up  137  at  4076    Mar '09 down  15  at  4169    May '09 down  57  at  4233    Jul '09 down  28  at  4395    Dec '09 down  4  at  4815  This week's LDP rate for cotton is  15.88 cents   The estimate for next week is  17.33 cents Cotton Comment Cotton closed mixed with expiring December closing higher, while most everything else was lower. However, cotton remains mired in the expanding economic recession. However, this could be the thing that puts the bottom in, and allows the market to make significant rebound at some point. Current levels would favor further acreage reduction in ’09. That would allow for reduced stocks and improving prices down the line. March support is the recent low of 39.23 cents. Producers have an opportunity to take a big LDP or POP, if they are willing to hold on to cotton and wait for the market to rally. Rice Long Grain Cash Bid for  n/a - - -  to  - - -   n/a - - -  to  - - - Chicago Futures: Jan '09 down  14  at  1374 1/2    Mar '09 down  19 1/2  at  1394    May '09 down  27 1/2  at  1413 1/2    Jul '09 down  29  at  1439    n/a down  - - -  at  - - -  Today's Arkansas LDP rate for long grain rice is  0¢ medium grain rice is  0¢ Rice Comment Rice futures worked lower again as the overall market undertone remains weak. Vietnam continues to move rice but at values well below established MEP (Minimum Export Price). Thailand confirmed big intervention stocks sale at $460 per metric tonne. That is also below established quotes of $525 to $540. U.S. mills may also face down time in the near future if new export sales aren’t confirmed. January futures could still move lower with the 62% retracement objective of $13.12 on the long term charts one possibility. Cattle & Hogs  Date: November 19, 2008 Cattle As reported by Federal-State Market News, receipts were 1,740 head at sales in Conway & Pocahontas.  Compared with last week, feeder steers under 600 lbs. sold weak to $4 lower, over 600 lbs. steady to $2 higher . Steers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 101.50 to - - -   500 to 550 lbs. 90.25 to - - -   600 to 650 lbs. 85.50 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 86 to - - - Heifers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 84.50 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 73.50 to - - - Slaughter Cows, Boners 38   to   45 Light Weight 22 to 28 Bulls, Yield Grade   1   1000   to   2100 lbs.   53   to   58, high dressing 64 Midwest Steers   were quoted   at   88   to   - - - Panhandle Steers   were quoted   at   88   to   88.50 Oklahoma City Feeders Steers 500 to 550 lbs. 103 to 115.50   600 to 650 lbs. 87 to 97 Heifers 500 to 550 lbs. 80 to 84   600 to 650 lbs. 82 to 86.25 Chicago Futures: Live Cattle: Dec down 295 at 8420   Feb '09 down 245 at 8515 Feeders: Jan '09 down 140 at 8985   May '09 down 205 at 9090 Cattle Comment Cattle futures posted double digit losses. December set a new contract low again today and also shattered support below $85 on the weekly chart. Despite the fact that the market is heavily oversold and trading at a deep discount to cash, the technical outlook is now quite bearish. Hogs Peoria: were     steady   at   32   to   32.5 Chicago Futures: Dec up 47 at 5592   Feb '09 up 70 at 6290 Sheep St. Paul sheep shorn slaughter lambs   at   n/a   to   - - - Hogs Comment Hogs ended mostly higher. Improving pork and cash hog values were supportive. Poultry  Date: November 19, 2008 Eggs New York:  Ex. Lg. 124-128; Lg. 122-126; Med. 107-111; Chicago:  Ex. Lg. 114-122; Lg. 112-120; Med. 99-107; Eastern Region Turkeys Hens: 8-16 lbs. 84-89 Toms: 16-24 lbs. 84-88   Delmarva Broilers U.S. Grade A Trade sentiment was fully steady to firm. Supplies of all sizes were adequate to closely cleared to satisfy current trade needs. In production areas, live supplies were moderate at mixed, but mostly desirable weights. ---------------------------------------- HOW TO UNSUBSCRIBE You are receiving this newsletter because you requested that your e-mail address be added to the Arkansas Farm Bureau Market Report. To unsubscribe or change your subscription information, go to http://www.arfb.com/commodity_marketing/email/ ---------------------------------------- QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS? If you have any comments or questions about this e-newsletter please e-mail us at mktrpt@arfb.com Arkansas Farm Bureau 10720 Kanis Road Little Rock, AR 72211 501-224-4400 Copyright 2008 Arkansas Farm Bureau, Inc. All rights reserved Terms of Use