11/18/2008 Farm Bureau Market Report

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Grain & Soybean Date: November 18, 2008 Soybeans Local Elevators: (Nov) EAST AR:  827 to 862 (NC) Summ. 868 to - - - River Elevators: (Nov) MISS: 817 to 900 ; AR & White 837 to - - - (NC) Summ. 876 to 911 Ark. Processor Bids: (Nov) 822 to 857  (NC) 887 to 892 Memphis:  (Nov) 892 to 902 (NC)  n/a to - - - Riceland Foods:  (Nov) Stuttgart 857 ; Pendleton 843 ; West Memphis 874 Chicago Futures: Jan '09 down 4 1/2 at  902   Mar '09  down  5 1/4  at  910 1/4   May '09 down 5 1/2  at  920 3/4   Jul '09 down 5 1/4  at  929 3/4   Nov '09 down 5 1/2  at  926   Today's Arkansas LDP rate for soybeans is: 0¢ Soybean Comment Soybeans gave back a portion of yesterday’s gains. Global economic weakness following news yesterday that Japan is officially in a recession was the impetus for the move lower. Renewed strength in the dollar is also a negative factor since it makes U.S. soybeans less affordable in the world market. However, exports have been surprisingly strong so far this marketing year. January continues to trade in a dollar range with resistance around $9.50 and support near $8.50. This market has upside potential, as indicated by improving cash basis levels in the Midwest, however it may be in late December or January before the market can make much headway. Corn also turned lower, but like soybeans, the technical outlook is unchanged. Unlike soybeans, corn is running almost 50% below year ago movement. USDA is projecting a 23% decline from last year, so movement will need to pick up soon, or we will see adjustments in subsequent reports. Key resistance for December corn remains $4.20, with support around $3.60. Wheat Cash bid for November at Memphis  379 3/4 to 424 3/4; Bids to farmers at Local Elevators 422-453; River Elevators 452-478; Chicago Futures: Dec down  4  at  529 3/4    Mar '09 down 4 1/2  at  549 1/2    May '09 down  4 1/4  at  564    Jul '09 down  5  at  577 1/2    Sep '09 down  5 1/2  at  599 3/4    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for wheat is: 0¢ Grain Sorghum Cash bid for November at Memphis  455 to 500; Bids to farmers at River Elevators 386-466; Today's Arkansas LDP rate for sorghum is: 0¢ Corn Cash bid for November at Memphis   343 to 350;   new crop at Memphis   364 1/2 to - - -; Bids to farmers at River Elevators  364 1/2 to - - - Chicago Futures: Dec down  5 3/4  at  380    Mar '09 down  6 1/2  at  396 1/2    May '09 down  7  at  407 3/4    Dec '09 down  6  at  443 1/2    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for corn is: 0¢ Grain Comment Wheat futures also moved a bit lower. Global wheat production is expected to set a record this year. Favorable winter wheat crop conditions are also a negative factor. However, support just above $5 looks firm for now. Cotton & Rice  Date: November 18, 2008 Cotton Spot Price, Grade 41 Staple 34: Memphis up 122 at  3784   Greenwood up  122 at 3784 New York Futures: Dec up  8  at  3945    Mar '09 up  26  at  4188    May '09 up  25  at  4288    Jul '09 down  3  at  4375    Dec '09 up  40  at  4798  This week's LDP rate for cotton is  15.88 cents   The estimate for next week is  17.27 cents Cotton Comment Cotton was steady to little higher today. However, cotton remains mired in the expanding economic recession. However, this could be the thing that puts the bottom in, and allows the market to make significant rebound at some point. Current levels would favor further acreage reduction in ’09. That would allow for reduced stocks and improving prices down the line. March support is the recent low of 39.23 cents. Rice Long Grain Cash Bid for  n/a - - -  to  - - -   n/a - - -  to  - - - Chicago Futures: Jan '09 down  13 1/2  at  1388 1/2    Mar '09 down  17  at  1413 1/2    May '09 down  17 1/2  at  1441    Jul '09 down  17 1/2  at  1468    - - - down  - - -  at  - - -  Today's Arkansas LDP rate for long grain rice is  0¢ medium grain rice is  0¢ Rice Comment Rice continued under pressure and gave back more of last week’s late gains as the market closed lower. Tight farmer holding is a positive, but general tone of the market remains somewhat negative. Asian growths have continued to work lower with Vietnam confirming sales at levels well below the established Minimum Export Price of $500 per tonne. Thai offerings are somewhat higher but they recently offered old intervention stocks, and indicated offers were too low. With new crop harvest and a new intervention program near, they could be looking at problems. U.S. mills may also face down time in the near future if new export sales aren’t confirmed. January futures could still move lower with the 62% retracement objective of $13.12 on the long term charts one possibility. Cattle & Hogs  Date: November 18, 2008 Cattle As reported by Federal-State Market News, receipts were 1,227 head at sales in Fort Smith & Marshall.  Compared with last week, feeder steers sold $3-6 lower, instances 6-8 lower . Steers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 114.25 to - - -   500 to 550 lbs. 95.25 to - - -   600 to 650 lbs. 86.25 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 95.25 to - - - Heifers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 89.75 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 78 to - - - Slaughter Cows, Boners 40   to   45 Light Weight 25 to 30 Bulls, Yield Grade   1   1000   to   2100 lbs.   50   to   57.50, high dressing 58-61.50 Midwest Steers   n/a   at   - - -   to   - - - Panhandle Steers   n/a   at   - - -   to   - - - Oklahoma City Feeders Steers 500 to 550 lbs. 103 to 115.50   600 to 650 lbs. 87 to 97 Heifers 500 to 550 lbs. 80 to 84   600 to 650 lbs. 82 to 86.25 Chicago Futures: Live Cattle: Dec down 115 at 8715   Feb '09 down 142 at 8760 Feeders: Jan '09 down 265 at 9125   May '09 down 255 at 9280 Cattle Comment Cattle futures were sharply lower again today. December set a new low for the move, but has support between $85 and $87 on the weekly chart. This market is trading at a large discount to cash prices, so that should limit the downside. Hogs Peoria: were     steady   at   32   to   32.5 Chicago Futures: Dec up 15 at 5545   Feb '09 up 15 at 6220 Sheep St. Paul sheep shorn slaughter lambs   at   n/a   to   - - - Hogs Comment Hogs ended mixed. The rising dollar is limiting pork exports, while ample hog numbers will weigh on long term values. Packer margins are slipping, and futures are currently trading at a premium to cash, and that will limit the upside. Poultry  Date: November 18, 2008 Eggs New York:  Ex. Lg. 124-128; Lg. 122-126; Med. 107-111; Chicago:  Ex. Lg. 114-122; Lg. 112-120; Med. 99-107; Eastern Region Turkeys Hens: 8-16 lbs. 87-92 Toms: 16-24 lbs. 87-91   Delmarva Broilers U.S. Grade A Trade sentiment was steady to fully steady. Demand into all channels were fair to moderate with trading limited to regular commitments. Supplies of all sizes were better balanced to closely cleared to satisfy current trade needs. In production areas, live supplies were moderate at mixed, but mostly desirable weights. ---------------------------------------- HOW TO UNSUBSCRIBE You are receiving this newsletter because you requested that your e-mail address be added to the Arkansas Farm Bureau Market Report. To unsubscribe or change your subscription information, go to http://www.arfb.com/commodity_marketing/email/ ---------------------------------------- QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS? If you have any comments or questions about this e-newsletter please e-mail us at mktrpt@arfb.com Arkansas Farm Bureau 10720 Kanis Road Little Rock, AR 72211 501-224-4400 Copyright 2008 Arkansas Farm Bureau, Inc. All rights reserved Terms of Use