10/03/2007 Farm Bureau Market Report

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Grain & Soybean Date: October 03, 2007 Soybeans Local Elevators: (Oct) EAST AR:  893 to 918 (NC) Summ. 906 to 924 River Elevators: (Oct) MISS: 913 to 921 ; AR & White 901 to 920 (NC) Summ. 913 to 959 Ark. Processor Bids: (Oct) 918 to 919  (NC) 925 to 955 Memphis:  (Oct) 915 to 921 (NC)  n/a to - - - Riceland Foods:  (Oct) Stuttgart 919 ; Pendleton 918 ; West Memphis 921 Chicago Futures: Nov up 7 1/4 at  951   Jan  up  7 1/2  at  969 1/2   Mar up 8  at  981 1/4   Jul up 7 1/2  at  991   Nov '08 up 4  at  949 1/2   Today's Arkansas LDP rate for soybeans is: 0¢ Soybean Comment Soybeans reversed early declines, which were a follow through on yesterday's big downturn, and ended the day on a positive note. However, the big break suggests at least a short term top is in and further declines over the next 3 to 4 weeks are likely. Good yield reports suggest this month’s supply demand update will see some increase in projected production. Downside retracement objectives and likely points of support are $9.36, $9.11, and $8.86. Wheat Cash bid for October at Memphis  592 1/2 to 602 1/2; Bids to farmers at Local Elevators 583-593; River Elevators 585-599; Chicago Futures: Dec up  4 1/2  at  927    Mar up 5  at  935 1/2    May up  1  at  846    Jul '08 up  8 1/2  at  672 1/2    Jul '09 up  12  at  612    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for wheat is: 0¢ Grain Sorghum Cash bid for October at Memphis  690 to 692; Bids to farmers at River Elevators 614-677; Today's Arkansas LDP rate for sorghum is: 0¢ Corn Cash bid for October at Memphis   336 1/2 to 341 1/2;   new crop at Memphis   362 1/2 to - - -; Bids to farmers at River Elevators  325 to 336 Chicago Futures: Dec down  4 1/4  at  344 1/2    Mar down  4 1/2  at  361    May down  3 1/2  at  371 1/2    Dec '08 unchanged    at  395 1/2    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for corn is: 0¢ Grain Comment Wheat futures traded lower in early dealings but turned around to close higher by the end of the day. It is likely this market is attempting to make at least a short-term top. Fundamentals are extremely bullish, but should be mostly factored in to prices at this point. New crop July has found support at $6.54 ½, the top of the recent chart gap. Cotton & Rice  Date: October 03, 2007 Cotton Spot Price, Grade 41 Staple 34: Memphis up 19 at  5893   Greenwood up  19 at 5893 New York Futures: Oct up  13  at  6043    Dec up  19  at  6343    Mar up  28  at  6691    May up  28  at  6811    Dec '08 up  17  at  7218  This week's LDP rate for cotton is  0 cents   The estimate for next week is  0 cents Cotton Comment Cotton slowed yesterday's decline and closed on a mixed note. As suggested yesterday, importers are reluctant buyers with December above 65 cents, but should re-enter the market with December in the low 60’s. A strong rebound in the dollar and weakness in grains contributed to the overall negative undertone. Any long term decline in grain and soybeans will make cotton more competitive for planting in ’08. However, many producers have already made discussions to plant wheat and/or soybeans. Thus, we look for cotton acreage to decline another 10 to 15% in ’08. Rice Long Grain Cash Bid for  Oct/Nov 1053  to  1080/cwt   - - - - - -  to  - - - Chicago Futures: Nov up  6  at  1163    Jan up  8  at  1196    Mar up  5  at  1218    May up  4  at  1228    - - -   - - -  at  - - -  Today's Arkansas LDP rate for long grain rice is  0¢ medium grain rice is  0¢ Rice Comment Rice started lower, but was slightly higher at the close. Good export sales and limited resources of rice suggest continued strength long term. With harvest over ¾ complete this year’s crop numbers are about complete. Arkansas yields are generally good, but overall supplies will tighten during the marketing year. Rice acreage could decline again next year if producers opt to plant wheat or soybeans. The next major upside chart objective is the January ’97 high of $12.45. Cattle & Hogs  Date: October 03, 2007 Cattle As reported by Federal-State Market News, receipts were 1,287 head at sales in Conway & Pocahontas.  Compared with last week, feeder steers sold mostly $1-4 lower, instances $5-6 lower . Steers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 114 to 124   500 to 550 lbs. 108 to 115   600 to 650 lbs. 105 to 111.50  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 101 to 111 Heifers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 102 to 112  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 90 to 99 Slaughter Cows, Boners 44   to   48 Light Weight 30 to 34 Bulls, Yield Grade   1   1000   to   2100 lbs.   57   to   61, high dressing untested Midwest Steers   were quoted   at   92   to   - - - Panhandle Steers   wree quoted   at   92   to   - - - Oklahoma City Feeders Steers n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - -   n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - - Heifers n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - -   n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - - Chicago Futures: Live Cattle: Oct down 62 at 9510   Dec down 57 at 9740 Feeders: Oct down 102 at 11490   Jan down 92 at 11402 Cattle Comment Cattle futures posted losses. Concerns that competition for consumer dollars from cheap pork will limit demand for beef remain a negative. December live cattle could retest the August low of $96.50. Hogs Peoria: were     steady   at   35.5   to   36 Chicago Futures: Oct up 47 at 5867   Dec up 122 at 6060 Sheep St. Paul sheep shorn slaughter lambs   at   n/a   to   - - - Hogs Comment Hogs turned higher on ideas the market is oversold and support from futures’ discount to cash prices. Cash fundamentals remain bearish and it is likely declines will continue. Poultry  Date: October 03, 2007 Eggs New York:  Ex. Lg. 120-124; Lg. 118-122; Med. 96-100; Chicago:  Ex. Lg. 114-122; Lg. 112-120; Med. 88-96; Eastern Region Turkeys Hens: 8-16 lbs. 92-96 Toms: 16-24 lbs. 92-96   Delmarva Broilers U.S. Grade A Trade sentiment was overall no better than steady and unsettled. Supplies of all sizes were at least sufficient with attractive prices available. In production areas, live supplies were moderate at mixed, but mostly desirable weights. ---------------------------------------- HOW TO UNSUBSCRIBE You are receiving this newsletter because you requested that your e-mail address be added to the Arkansas Farm Bureau Market Report. To unsubscribe or change your subscription information, go to http://www.arfb.com/commodity/daily_rpt_email.asp ---------------------------------------- QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS? If you have any comments or questions about this e-newsletter please e-mail us at mktrpt@arfb.com Arkansas Farm Bureau 10720 Kanis Road Little Rock, AR 72211 501-224-4400 Copyright 2007 Arkansas Farm Bureau, Inc. All rights reserved