10/02/2007 Farm Bureau Market Report

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Grain & Soybean Date: October 2, 2007 Soybeans Local Elevators: (Oct) EAST AR:  886 to 911 (NC) Summ. 892 to 917 River Elevators: (Oct) MISS: 906 to 918 ; AR & White 892 to 911 (NC) Summ. 906 to 952 Ark. Processor Bids: (Oct) 911 to 912  (NC) 918 to 947 Memphis:  (Oct) 913 3/4 to 916 3/4 (NC)  n/a to - - - Riceland Foods:  (Oct) Stuttgart 912 ; Pendleton 911 ; West Memphis 918 Chicago Futures: Nov down 47 3/4 at  943 3/4   Jan  down  47 1/2  at  962   Mar down 47  at  973 1/4   Jul '08 down 41 1/2  at  983 1/2   Nov '08 down 22 1/2  at  945 1/2   Today's Arkansas LDP rate for soybeans is: 0¢ Soybean Comment Soybeans make near limit decline as a day of reckoning hits commodity trading pits. A strong rebound in the dollar, strong corn yields and a flush of profit taking by index funds contributed to an across the board decline in grains, cotton and soybeans. November beans gapped below trendline support and ended the day below the old contract high of $9.48 ½. Downside retracement objectives and likely points of support are $9.36, $9.11, and $8.86. Wheat Cash bid for October at Memphis  862 1/2 to 890 1/2; Bids to farmers at Local Elevators 574-584; River Elevators 576-589; Chicago Futures: Dec down  30  at  922 1/2    Mar down 30  at  930 1/2    May down  30  at  845    Jul '08 down  30  at  664    Jul '09 down  18  at  600    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for wheat is: 0¢ Grain Sorghum Cash bid for October at Memphis  698 to 703; Bids to farmers at River Elevators 666; Today's Arkansas LDP rate for sorghum is: 0¢ Corn Cash bid for October at Memphis   343 3/4 to 345 3/4;   new crop at Memphis   364 1/2 to - - -; Bids to farmers at River Elevators  329 to - - - Chicago Futures: Dec down  20  at  348 3/4    Mar down  20  at  365 1/2    May down  20  at  375    Dec '08 down  20  at  395 1/2    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for corn is: 0¢ Grain Comment Wheat futures were down the limit across the board. Improvement in the value of the dollar relative to other currencies was key in sparking the selloff. A few days with no news of export sales has the market concerned that U.S. wheat has priced itself out of the global market. The most technical damage, however, was seen on the corn charts. December gapped lower, fell through trendline support and left an island top on the way down this morning. Cotton & Rice  Date: October 2, 2007 Cotton Spot Price, Grade 41 Staple 34: Memphis down 187 at  5874   Greenwood down  187 at 5874 New York Futures: Oct down  30  at  6175    Dec down  186  at  6325    Mar down  169  at  6680    May down  187  at  6785    Dec '08 down  142  at  7215  This week's LDP rate for cotton is  0 cents   The estimate for next week is  0 cents Cotton Comment Cotton gapped below trendline support and moved to the 50% retracement value of 62.85 cents before finding support. As suggested yesterday, importers are reluctant buyers with December above 65 cents, but should re-enter the market with December in the low 60’s. A strong rebound in the dollar and weakness in grains contributed to the overall negative undertone. Any long term decline in grain and soybeans will make cotton more competitive for planting in ’08. However, many producers have already made discussions to plant wheat and/or soybeans. Thus, we look for cotton acreage to decline another 10 to 15% in ’08. Rice Long Grain Cash Bid for  Oct/Nov 1047  to  1080/cwt   - - - - - -  to  - - - Chicago Futures: Nov down  14  at  1157    Jan down  16  at  1188    Mar down  18  at  1212    May down  16  at  1224    n/a down  - - -  at  - - -  Today's Arkansas LDP rate for long grain rice is  0¢ medium grain rice is  0¢ Rice Comment Rice fell out of the consolidation area that had prevailed for the last several days. However, rice was impacted far less today than other grains and cotton. November briefly penetrated support at the old contract high of $11.58, before rebounding to close at that level. Good export sales and limited resources of rice suggest continued strength long term. With harvest over ¾ complete this year’s crop numbers are about complete. Arkansas yields are generally good, but overall supplies will tighten during the marketing year. Rice acreage could decline again next year if producers opt to plant wheat or soybeans. The next major upside chart objective is the January ’97 high of $12.45. Cattle & Hogs  Date: October 2, 2007 Cattle As reported by Federal-State Market News, receipts were 1,870 head at sales in Fort Smith & Marshall.  Compared with last week, feeder steers sold unevenly, mostly steady . Steers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 119 to 129   500 to 550 lbs. 110 to 120   600 to 700 lbs. 103 to 113  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 107 to 117 Heifers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 106 to 116  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 94 to 104 Slaughter Cows, Boners 42   to   47 Light Weight 30 to 35 Bulls, Yield Grade   1   1000   to   2100 lbs.   55   to   61, high dressing 62-62.50 Midwest Steers   n/a   at   - - -   to   - - - Panhandle Steers   n/a   at   - - -   to   - - - Oklahoma City Feeders Steers 500 to 550 lbs. 118 to 128   600 to 650 lbs. 110 to 121 Heifers 550 to 600 lbs. 110 to 114.50   600 to 650 lbs. 100 to 112 Chicago Futures: Live Cattle: Oct down 50 at 9572   Dec down 62 at 9797 Feeders: Oct up 85 at 11592   Jan up 72 at 11495 Cattle Comment Cattle futures ended mixed. Feeders were supported by sharp losses in corn futures. Concerns that competition for consumer dollars from cheap pork will limit demand for beef remain a negative. December live cattle could retest the August low of $96.50. Hogs Peoria: were $1.5     lower   at   35.5   to   36 Chicago Futures: Oct up 5 at 5820   Dec down 17 at 5937 Sheep St. Paul sheep shorn slaughter lambs   at   n/a   to   - - - Hogs Comment Hogs ended mixed. Cash fundamentals remain bearish and it is likely declines will continue. However, the market is oversold and futures are currently trading at a discount to cash prices, which is providing underlying support today. Poultry  Date: October 2, 2007 Eggs New York:  Ex. Lg. 122-126; Lg. 120-124; Med. 96-100; Chicago:  Ex. Lg. 114-122; Lg. 112-120; Med. 88-96; Eastern Region Turkeys Hens: 8-16 lbs. 92-96 Toms: 16-24 lbs. 92-96   Delmarva Broilers U.S. Grade A Market conditions remains unsettled and under pressure on about all items. Supplies of all sizes of whole product were available and still attractively priced. In production areas, live supplies were moderate at desirable to heavy weights. ---------------------------------------- HOW TO UNSUBSCRIBE You are receiving this newsletter because you requested that your e-mail address be added to the Arkansas Farm Bureau Market Report. To unsubscribe or change your subscription information, go to http://www.arfb.com/commodity/daily_rpt_email.asp ---------------------------------------- QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS? If you have any comments or questions about this e-newsletter please e-mail us at mktrpt@arfb.com Arkansas Farm Bureau 10720 Kanis Road Little Rock, AR 72211 501-224-4400 Copyright 2007 Arkansas Farm Bureau, Inc. All rights reserved