10/01/2007 Farm Bureau Market Report

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Grain & Soybean Date: October 01, 2007 Soybeans Local Elevators: (Oct) EAST AR:  940 to 959 (NC) Summ. 946 to 965 River Elevators: (Oct) MISS: 952 to 966 ; AR & White 942 to 961 (NC) Summ. 954 to 999 Ark. Processor Bids: (Oct) 959 to 960  (NC) 966 to 995 Memphis:  (Oct) 959 1/2 to 964 1/2 (NC)  n/a to - - - Riceland Foods:  (NC) Stuttgart 960 ; Pendleton 959 ; West Memphis 966 Chicago Futures: Nov up 1/4 at  991 1/2   Jan  up  1  at  1009 1/2   Mar up 2  at  1020 1/4   Jul up 3  at  1025   Nov '08 up 4  at  968   Today's Arkansas LDP rate for soybeans is: 0¢ Soybean Comment Soybeans attempted to retrace a portion of Friday’s decline, but was able to hold only a couple of cents at the close. Wheat continued to lead the market and lent support to beans. Corn, on the other hand, may be under pressure, as yield results appear to be exceptional. Early guesstimates for this month’s supply demand report are already increasing yield 2 to 3 bushels. This could pressure beans in the day’s ahead, as beans appear over valued versus corn. Initial support on a downward retracement move will be the 9.50 to 9.35 range. Wheat Cash bid for October at Memphis  892 1/2 to 920 1/2; Bids to farmers at Local Elevators 604-614; River Elevators 606-621; Chicago Futures: Dec up  13 1/2  at  952 1/2    Mar up 13 1/2  at  960 1/2    May up  22 1/2  at  875    Jul '08 up  13  at  694    Jul '09 up  6  at  618    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for wheat is: 0¢ Grain Sorghum Cash bid for October at Memphis  739 to 746; Bids to farmers at River Elevators 344-365; Today's Arkansas LDP rate for sorghum is: 0¢ Corn Cash bid for October at Memphis   362 3/4 to 368 3/4;   new crop at Memphis   384 1/4 to 389 1/4; Bids to farmers at River Elevators  344 to 365 Chicago Futures: Dec down  4 1/4  at  368 3/4    Mar down  3 3/4  at  385 1/2    May down  4 1/4  at  395    Dec '08 down  4  at  415 1/2    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for corn is: 0¢ Grain Comment Wheat posted sharp gains again today, with new crop again moving to new highs. USDA’s cut in the total wheat production estimate is still providing support. Canada confirmed their crop was 20% smaller than a year ago, and traders are still concerned about the ongoing drought in Australia. Obviously, a lot of bullish news has already been built into current prices, but the downside could be limited until wheat importers stop buying at these prices. Cotton & Rice  Date: October 01, 2007 Cotton Spot Price, Grade 41 Staple 34: Memphis up 11 at  6061   Greenwood up  11 at 6061 New York Futures: Oct unchanged    at  6205    Dec up  11  at  6511    Mar down  3  at  6849    May down  3  at  6972    Dec '08 down  17  at  7357  This week's LDP rate for cotton is  0 cents   The estimate for next week is  0 cents Cotton Comment Cotton was mixed today with December the only contract high a positive number. December is pressuring trendline support and could be subject to further downward movement as the market retraces a portion of recent gains of over 10 cents. Current crop demand is good, but a huge carryover has partially offset the smallest crop in 18 years. Importers will likely resist paying price associated with futures above 65 to 66 cents – at least, for the time being. Longer term cotton will need to more competitive to hold acreage. Obviously, as long as beans and corn remain high, cotton will have to move higher, but that appears to be in ’08 and ’09. Rice Long Grain Cash Bid for  Oct/Nov 1061  to  1080/cwt   - - - - - -  to  - - - Chicago Futures: Nov down  2  at  1171    Jan down  5  at  1204    Mar unchanged    at  1230    May unchanged    at  1124    - - -   - - -  at  - - -  Today's Arkansas LDP rate for long grain rice is  0¢ medium grain rice is  0¢ Rice Comment Rice was slightly lower as November futures continue in a consolidation pattern just below last Thursday’s high. Retracement support will start around $11.40 to $11.27 should the market start lower. Overall fundamentals remain supportive. Vietnam is still under an export ban, and Thailand is moving rice at a good pace. Thailand’s price remains a little low considering the overall supply demand picture. So we may see that price firm in the future. The U.S. is finally see good export sales with several purchases and tenders from Iraq. Costa Rica, Haiti and Ghana have been active in the market as well. The question is whether the current price will slow the activity. High wheat price levels will help rice, as will the weaker dollar. Upside is, many of these countries may have little choice and fear of higher prices tends to make them pull the trigger. The January ’97 high of $12.45 remains the next chart objective. Cattle & Hogs  Date: October 01, 2007 Cattle As reported by Federal-State Market News, receipts were 2,632 head at sales in Ash Flat & Springdale.  Compared with last week, feeder steers sold unevenly, mostly firm to $4 higher, heifers sold steady to $2 higher . Steers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 121 to 131   500 to 550 lbs. 108 to 118   600 to 700 lbs. 100 to 106  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 117 to 127 Heifers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 107 to 117  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 100 to 110 Slaughter Cows, Boners 43   to   48 Light Weight 30 to 38 Bulls, Yield Grade   1   1000   to   2100 lbs.   54   to   61, high dressing 61-64 Midwest Steers   were $3 higher to steady   at   93   to   96.50 Panhandle Steers   were $2-.50 higher   at   94   to   96.50 Oklahoma City Feeders Steers 550 to 600 lbs. 116 to 125.75   600 to 650 lbs. 110 to 121 Heifers 550 to 600 lbs. 104 to 114   600 to 650 lbs. 100 to 112 Chicago Futures: Live Cattle: Oct down 72 at 9622   Dec down 120 at 9860 Feeders: Oct down 122 at 11507   Jan down 110 at 11422 Cattle Comment Sharp losses in hogs carried over into the cattle pits. Traders are concerned about competition for consumer dollars from cheap pork. The August low of $98.15 is the next level of support for December. Hogs Peoria: were     steady   at   37   to   37.5 Chicago Futures: Oct down 75 at 5815   Dec down 270 at 5955 Sheep St. Paul sheep shorn slaughter lambs   at   n/a   to   - - - Hogs Comment The sell-off continued in hogs today in reaction to the quarterly pork stocks report. The USDA reported Friday that frozen stocks equal 102.8% of the total a year ago. That number was at the high end of trade expectations. Cash fundamentals remain bearish and it is likely declines will continue. Poultry  Date: October 01, 2007 Eggs New York:  Ex. Lg. 124-128; Lg. 122-126; Med. 94-98; Chicago:  Ex. Lg. 114-122; Lg. 112-120; Med. 88-96; Eastern Region Turkeys Hens: 8-16 lbs. 92-96 Toms: 16-24 lbs. 92-96   Delmarva Broilers U.S. Grade A Trade sentiment was unsettled and cautious for early week business. Demand was reported as slow to fair and not much inquiry for any additional product. Supplies were fully adequate for full trade needs. In production areas, live supplies were moderate at desirable to heavy weights. ---------------------------------------- HOW TO UNSUBSCRIBE You are receiving this newsletter because you requested that your e-mail address be added to the Arkansas Farm Bureau Market Report. To unsubscribe or change your subscription information, go to http://www.arfb.com/commodity/daily_rpt_email.asp ---------------------------------------- QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS? If you have any comments or questions about this e-newsletter please e-mail us at mktrpt@arfb.com Arkansas Farm Bureau 10720 Kanis Road Little Rock, AR 72211 501-224-4400 Copyright 2007 Arkansas Farm Bureau, Inc. All rights reserved