11/20/2009 Farm Bureau Market Report

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Grain & Soybean Date: November 20, 2009 Soybeans Local Elevators: (Nov) EAST AR:  991 to 1022 (NC) Summ. 995 to - - - River Elevators: (Nov) MISS: 1026 to 1035 ; AR & White 1007 to 1017 (NC) Summ. 1031 to 1066 Ark. Processor Bids: (Nov) 1000 to 1017  (NC) 1031 to 1048 Memphis:  (Nov) 1042 to 1043 (NC)  n/a to - - - Riceland Foods:  (Nov) Stuttgart 1021 ; Pendleton 1027 ; West Memphis 1040 Chicago Futures: Jan up 7 at  1046   Mar '10  up  5 1/2  at  1050 1/4   Jul '10 up 3 1/2  at  1053 1/2   Aug '10 up 3  at  1049 1/2   Nov '10 up 1  at  1022 1/2   Today's Arkansas LDP rate for soybeans is: 0¢ Soybean Comment Soybeans made another push at $10.50 and while closing higher couldn’t break resistance at that level for the third day in a row. It is obvious the demand side of the equation is keeping soybeans firm. Supplies are sufficient despite the late harvest and quality issues. In addition to strong export interest from China, crushing plants are running near capacity as new crop supplies become available. Potential for heavy meal demand will drive that area for the time being. The next upside objective is August high of $10.68. Corn was lower with December again testing trendline support. A close below $3.77 would allow for a potential move to $3.60. Corn is not seeing the same demand as soybeans as recent export sales have been rather weak. While weather is continuing to hamper harvest there doesn’t seem to be any real concerns, except the potential for mycotoxins. Wheat Cash bid for November at Memphis  459 3/4 to 489 3/4; Bids to farmers at Local Elevators 541-545; River Elevators 535-563; Chicago Futures: Dec down  2 3/4  at  559 3/4    Mar '10 down 3 1/4  at  580 3/4    May '10 down  3 1/4  at  592 1/4    Jul '10 down  3  at  602 3/4    Sep '10 down  2 1/2  at  617 1/2    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for wheat is: 0¢ Grain Sorghum Cash bid for November at Memphis  671 to 689; Bids to farmers at River Elevators 575-650; Today's Arkansas LDP rate for sorghum is: 0¢ Corn Cash bid for November at Memphis   386 to 393;   new crop at Memphis   360 1/4 to 400 1/4; Bids to farmers at River Elevators  362 to 381 Chicago Futures: Dec down  4  at  391    Mar '10 down  3 3/4  at  407    Jul '10 down  3 1/4  at  425 1/2    Dec '10 down  2 3/4  at  435 1/2    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for corn is: 0¢ Grain Comment Wheat futures were lower again today. It is apparent that wheat can’t sustain upward momentum without help from the other markets. New crop July did hold above chart-gap support at $5.96. Cotton & Rice  Date: November 20, 2009 Cotton Spot Price, Grade 41 Staple 34: Memphis up 2 at  6899   Greenwood up  2 at 6899 New York Futures: Dec up  159  at  7041    Mar '10 up  107  at  7404    May '10 up  104  at  7531    Jul '10 up  85  at  7626    - - -   - - -  at  - - -  This week's LDP rate for cotton is  0 cents   The estimate for next week is  0 cents Cotton Comment Cotton managed a big up move to end the week with December making a new recent high just under 71 cents. This moves the market out of the 66-69 cents range that has contained the market for the last 6 weeks. Smaller ’09 crop coupled with serious quality issues could be the basis for a solid upturn. There is little question it will take higher prices to pull acreage in 2010, if beans and corn remain near current levels. Rice Long Grain Cash Bid for  Nov 1392/cwt  to  - - -   - - - - - -  to  - - - Chicago Futures: Jan '10 down  11  at  1517    Mar '10 down  11  at  1542    May '10 down  12 1/2  at  1565 1/2    Jul '10 down  12 1/2  at  1589    - - -   - - -  at  - - -  Today's Arkansas LDP rate for long grain rice is  0¢ medium grain rice is  0¢ Rice Comment Rice continued to move in an up and down pattern while consolidating just below the recent high of $15.44. However there is growing interest in this year’s crop as the market looks at typhoon damage in the Philippines and the prospect of India becoming an importer instead of an exporter. India could need to buy 1 to 3 million metric tonnes of rice. That could turn the market upside down. Although Thailand is holding huge intervention stocks, perhaps 6 million metric tonnes, or more; at this point they have held firm. If this continues, the market could have substantial upside. Technically, futures have resistance just under $16, from there you jump to retracement objectives of $16.35, $17.94, and $19.53. Those are the 38%, 50% and 62% retracement objectives of the decline from the ’08 high of $24.68 ½ to the ’09 low of $11.19. Cattle & Hogs  Date: November 20, 2009 Cattle As reported by Federal-State Market News, receipts were 9,780 head at sales in Arkansas this week.  Compared with last week, feeder steers sold $3-5 higher. Feeder heifers steady to $2 higher . Steers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 108 to - - -   500 to 550 lbs. 97.50 to - - -   600 to 650 lbs. 88.50 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 93.50 to - - - Heifers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 91.50 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 82.25 to - - - Slaughter Cows, Boners 35   to   42 Light Weight 25 to 30 Bulls, Yield Grade   1   1000   to   2100 lbs.   45   to   50, high dressing 52.50-55 Midwest Steers   n/a   at   - - -   to   - - - Panhandle Steers   n/a   at   - - -   to   - - - Oklahoma City Feeders Steers 500 to 550 lbs. 96.50 to 116   600 to 650 lbs. 87 to 99 Heifers 500 to 550 lbs. 84.25 to 99   600 to 650 lbs. 78 to 88 Chicago Futures: Live Cattle: Dec up 27 at 8395   Feb '10 up 5 at 8542 Feeders: Jan '10 up 85 at 9267   Mar '10 up 72 at 9357 Cattle Comment Live cattle futures posted modest gains. While the market remains technically weak, it is showing signs of a possible bottom. December futures would need to close above $86 to confirm a low – that is over $2 above today’s close. October placements are expected to show gains over year ago levels, marking the 4th consecutive month of placements larger than year ago levels. Hogs Peoria: were $1     lower   at   32   to   34 Chicago Futures: Dec up 162 at 5760   Feb '10 up 110 at 6437 Sheep St. Paul sheep shorn slaughter lambs   at   n/a   to   - - - Hogs Comment Hog futures gapped higher today. February is having a tough time with resistance between $64.70 and $64.80. Ample hog supplies and weakness in pork values are limiting the upside from a fundamental perspective. Poultry  Date: November 20, 2009 Eggs New York:  Ex. Lg. 127-131; Lg. 125-129; Med. 101-105; Chicago:  Ex. Lg. 114-122; Lg. 112-120; Med. 97-105; Eastern Region Turkeys Hens: 8-16 lbs. 84-87 Toms: 16-24 lbs. 84-87   Delmarva Broilers U.S. Grade A The market tone was steady. Demand entering the weekend was seasonally fair to moderate with more focus on holiday meat items. Supplies of all sizes were sufficient to satisfy trade needs. In production areas, live supplies were moderate at desirable weights. ---------------------------------------- HOW TO UNSUBSCRIBE You are receiving this newsletter because you requested that your e-mail address be added to the Arkansas Farm Bureau Market Report. To unsubscribe or change your subscription information, go to http://www.arfb.com/commodity_marketing/email/ ---------------------------------------- QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS? If you have any comments or questions about this e-newsletter please e-mail us at mktrpt@arfb.com Arkansas Farm Bureau 10720 Kanis Road Little Rock, AR 72211 501-224-4400 Copyright 2009 Arkansas Farm Bureau, Inc. All rights reserved Terms of Use