11/18/2009Farm Bureau Market Report

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Grain & Soybean Date: November 18, 2009 Soybeans Local Elevators: (Nov) EAST AR:  969 to 993 (NC) Summ. 976 to - - - River Elevators: (Nov) MISS: 988 to 1007 ; AR & White 972 to 998 (NC) Summ. 1012 to 1047 Ark. Processor Bids: (Nov) 981 to - - -  (NC) 1012 to 1035 Memphis:  (Nov) 1012 to 1017 (NC)  365 1/2 to 405 1/2 Riceland Foods:  (Nov) Stuttgart 981 ; Pendleton 993 ; West Memphis 988 Chicago Futures: Jan '10 down 2 1/2 at  1027   Mar '10  down  2 1/2  at  1033 1/4   Jul '10 down 2 3/4  at  1039 1/4   Sep '10 down 8 1/2  at  1025 1/2   Nov '10 down 10 1/2  at  1019 1/2   Today's Arkansas LDP rate for soybeans is: 0¢ Soybean Comment Soybeans reversed big gains to close lower, but held above the shallow downtrend that was broken yesterday. The market appears to have taken fundamental factors – delayed harvest, quality problems, strong demand and dry conditions in Argentina – into account. Outside factors remains a major influence. Talk of inflation seems to bring investors in the form of index funds into the market. That makes it difficult to determine how the market will react. The next resistance at the mid August high of $10.68 remains a potential upside objective. A close below $10.15 brings support at $9.50 into play. Corn fell short of resistance at $4.13, as the market reversed early gains to close lower. December fell below $4. A close below trendline support around $3.87 would indicate a likely retest of support near $3.60. Almost 45% of the crop remains in the field and subject to potential quality problems. Wheat Cash bid for November at Memphis  451 1/4 to 476 1/4; Bids to farmers at Local Elevators 548-552; River Elevators 541-570; Chicago Futures: Dec down  8 1/2  at  566 1/4    Mar '10 down 8 1/2  at  588    May '10 down  9 1/4  at  599 1/2    Jul '10 down  9 1/4  at  609 1/2    Sep '10 down  9 1/2  at  624 1/2    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for wheat is: 0¢ Grain Sorghum Cash bid for November at Memphis  666 to 695; Bids to farmers at River Elevators 570-645; Today's Arkansas LDP rate for sorghum is: 0¢ Corn Cash bid for November at Memphis   391 to 392;   new crop at Memphis   365 1/2 to 405 1/2; Bids to farmers at River Elevators  359 to 374 Chicago Futures: Dec down  4  at  398    Mar '10 down  3 3/4  at  413 3/4    Jul '10 down  4  at  430 3/4    Dec '10 down  6  at  440 1/2    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for corn is: 0¢ Grain Comment Wheat reversed recent gains. There wasn't much fundamental justification for recent strength. World supplies are ample and exports are running significantly behind last year's pace. The next resistance for December is the August high of $5.84 ½. Cotton & Rice  Date: November 18, 2009 Cotton Spot Price, Grade 41 Staple 34: Memphis up 53 at  6750   Greenwood up  53 at 6750 New York Futures: Dec up  65  at  6854    Mar '10 up  58  at  7255    May '10 up  65  at  7378    Jul '10 up  72  at  7481    - - -   - - -  at  - - -  This week's LDP rate for cotton is  0 cents   The estimate for next week is  0 cents Cotton Comment Cotton closed higher but well below the day’s high. Trade remains confined to the 66-69 cents range that has contained the market for the last 6 weeks. Smaller ’09 crop coupled with serious quality issues could be the basis for a solid upturn. There is little question it will take higher prices to pull acreage in 2010, if beans and corn remain near current levels. Rice Long Grain Cash Bid for  Nov 1395/cwt  to  - - -   - - - - - -  to  - - - Chicago Futures: Jan '10 up  4  at  1520    Mar '10 up  5  at  1545    May '10 up  6 1/2  at  1570    Jul '10 up  7  at  1594    - - -   - - -  at  - - -  Today's Arkansas LDP rate for long grain rice is  0¢ medium grain rice is  0¢ Rice Comment Rice was a little higher as the market is consolidating just below the recent January high of $15.44. However there is growing interest in this year’s crop as the market looks at typhoon damage in the Philippines and the prospect of India becoming an importer instead of an exporter. India could need to buy 1 to 3 million metric tonnes of rice. That could turn the market upside down. Although Thailand is holding huge intervention stocks, perhaps 6 million metric tonnes, or more; at this point they have held firm. If this continues, the market could have substantial upside. Technically, futures have resistance just under $16, from there you jump to retracement objectives of $16.35, $17.94, and $19.53. Those are the 38%, 50% and 62% retracement objectives of the decline from the ’08 high of $24.68 ½ to the ’09 low of $11.19. Cattle & Hogs  Date: November 18, 2009 Cattle As reported by Federal-State Market News, receipts were 1,337 head at sales in Conway & Pocahontas.  Compared with last week, feeder steers sold unevenly, averaging near steady . Steers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 105.75 to - - -   500 to 550 lbs. 94.75 to - - -   600 to 650 lbs. 87 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 86.50 to - - - Heifers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 86.25 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 75.50 to - - - Slaughter Cows, Boners 34   to   39 Light Weight 25 to 30 Bulls, Yield Grade   1   1400   to   2300 lbs.   47   to   52, high dressing 53.50-54.50 Midwest Steers   were quoted   at   83   to   - - - Panhandle Steers   were $1 higher   at   84   to   - - - Oklahoma City Feeders Steers 500 to 550 lbs. 103 to 112.50   600 to 650 lbs. 87 to 97 Heifers 500 to 550 lbs. 88 to 97   600 to 650 lbs. 79 to 86 Chicago Futures: Live Cattle: Dec down 100 at 8307   Feb '10 down 67 at 8497 Feeders: Jan '10 down 105 at 9172   Mar '10 down 72 at 9292 Cattle Comment A strong rebound in the dollar and expectations for lower cash trade today resulted in lower cattle prices. December posted a potential double bottom last Thursday and Friday, meaning support begins at $82.80. Hogs Peoria: were     steady   at   33   to   35 Chicago Futures: Dec up 5 at 5645   Feb '10 up 25 at 6422 Sheep St. Paul sheep shorn slaughter lambs   at   n/a   to   - - - Hogs Comment Hogs ended higher. Cash prices look toppy and futures are overbought, so expect the upside to be limited for now. Resistance for February begins at the recent high of $64.80. Poultry  Date: November 18, 2009 Eggs New York:  Ex. Lg. 125-129; Lg. 123-127; Med. 101-105; Chicago:  Ex. Lg. 114-122; Lg. 112-120; Med. 97-105; Eastern Region Turkeys Hens: 8-16 lbs. 84-87 Toms: 16-24 lbs. 84-87   Delmarva Broilers U.S. Grade A The market tone was steady. Retail and food service demand was seasonally fair to moderate with most interest focus on holiday items. Supplies of all sizes were sufficient to satisfy current trade needs. In production areas live supplies were moderate; at mixed, but mostly desirable weights. ---------------------------------------- HOW TO UNSUBSCRIBE You are receiving this newsletter because you requested that your e-mail address be added to the Arkansas Farm Bureau Market Report. To unsubscribe or change your subscription information, go to http://www.arfb.com/commodity_marketing/email/ ---------------------------------------- QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS? If you have any comments or questions about this e-newsletter please e-mail us at mktrpt@arfb.com Arkansas Farm Bureau 10720 Kanis Road Little Rock, AR 72211 501-224-4400 Copyright 2009 Arkansas Farm Bureau, Inc. All rights reserved Terms of Use