11/19/2009 Farm Bureau Market Report

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Grain & Soybean Date: November 19, 2009 Soybeans Local Elevators: (Nov) EAST AR:  984 to 1015 (NC) Summ. 988 to - - - River Elevators: (Nov) MISS: 1009 to 1025 ; AR & White 1000 to 1010 (NC) Summ. 1024 to 1059 Ark. Processor Bids: (Nov) 993 to 1010  (NC) 1024 to 1041 Memphis:  (Nov) 1029 to 1036 (NC)  n/a to - - - Riceland Foods:  (Nov) Stuttgart 1010 ; Pendleton 1015 ; West Memphis 1015 Chicago Futures: Jan '10 up 12 at  1039   Mar '10  up  11 1/2  at  1044 3/4   Jul '10 up 10 3/4  at  1050   Aug '10 up 9  at  1046 1/2   Nov '10 up 2  at  1021 1/2   Today's Arkansas LDP rate for soybeans is: 0¢ Soybean Comment Soybeans rebounded to again test resistance at $10.50. Almost 50 million bushels of export sales for the past week and shipments of over 60 billion bushels indicate strong demand which provided a good boost for the market. Overall cumulative sales are up almost 60% for the year and are almost to the 75% level of USDA’s projection for the year. Obviously, a weaker dollar is a big factor in current sales. Corn closed lower as December fell to $3.90 and close to trendline support at one point in the session. Unlike soybeans corn exports were fairly light, with only 13.9 million bushels being sold last week. Harvest continues to lag behind normal, as many farmers are waiting for moisture levels to decline. A December close below $3.87 would suggest a possible retest of support just below $3.60. Wheat Cash bid for November at Memphis  462 1/2 to 487 1/2; Bids to farmers at Local Elevators 544-548; River Elevators 538-566; Chicago Futures: Dec down  3 3/4  at  562 1/2    Mar '10 down 4  at  584    May '10 down  4  at  595 1/2    Jul '10 down  3 3/4  at  605 3/4    Sep '10 down  4 1/2  at  620    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for wheat is: 0¢ Grain Sorghum Cash bid for November at Memphis  679 to 698; Bids to farmers at River Elevators 582-657; Today's Arkansas LDP rate for sorghum is: 0¢ Corn Cash bid for November at Memphis   393 to 397;   new crop at Memphis   363 to 403; Bids to farmers at River Elevators  366 to 381 Chicago Futures: Dec down  3  at  395    Mar '10 down  3  at  410 3/4    Jul '10 down  2  at  428 3/4    Dec '10 down  2 1/4  at  438 1/4    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for corn is: 0¢ Grain Comment A weak export report and negative outside markets weighed on wheat. July 2010 closed lower, but well off the day’s lows. Egypt again chose to go with lower priced wheat from France and Russia. This further proves that U.S. wheat is overpriced relative to other world growths. Cotton & Rice  Date: November 19, 2009 Cotton Spot Price, Grade 41 Staple 34: Memphis up 147 at  6897   Greenwood up  147 at 6897 New York Futures: Dec up  28  at  6882    Mar '10 up  42  at  7297    May '10 up  49  at  7427    Jul '10 up  60  at  7541    - - -   - - -  at  - - -  This week's LDP rate for cotton is  0 cents   The estimate for next week is  0 cents Cotton Comment Cotton made a late rebound to close slightly higher. Trade remains confined to the 66-69 cents range that has contained the market for the last 6 weeks. Smaller ’09 crop coupled with serious quality issues could be the basis for a solid upturn. There is little question it will take higher prices to pull acreage in 2010, if beans and corn remain near current levels. Rice Long Grain Cash Bid for  Nov 1403/cwt  to  - - -   - - - - - -  to  - - - Chicago Futures: Jan '10 up  8  at  1528    Mar '10 up  8  at  1553    May '10 up  8  at  1578    Jul '10 up  7 1/2  at  1601 1/2    - - -   - - -  at  - - -  Today's Arkansas LDP rate for long grain rice is  0¢ medium grain rice is  0¢ Rice Comment Rice firmed to hold near the recent high as January futures remain in a consolidation pattern. However there is growing interest in this year’s crop as the market looks at typhoon damage in the Philippines and the prospect of India becoming an importer instead of an exporter. India could need to buy 1 to 3 million metric tonnes of rice. That could turn the market upside down. Although Thailand is holding huge intervention stocks, perhaps 6 million metric tonnes, or more; at this point they have held firm. If this continues, the market could have substantial upside. Technically, futures have resistance just under $16, from there you jump to retracement objectives of $16.35, $17.94, and $19.53. Those are the 38%, 50% and 62% retracement objectives of the decline from the ’08 high of $24.68 ½ to the ’09 low of $11.19. Cattle & Hogs  Date: November 19, 2009 Cattle As reported by Federal-State Market News, receipts were 1,683 head at sales in Charlotte & Green Forest.  Compared with last week, feeder steers mixed from $3 lower to $2 higher . Steers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 107 to - - -   500 to 550 lbs. 99.25 to - - -   600 to 650 lbs. n/a to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 94 to - - - Heifers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 83.75 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 79.75 to - - - Slaughter Cows, Boners 34   to   40 Light Weight 30 to 32 Bulls, Yield Grade   1   1000   to   2100 lbs.   45   to   51, high dressing 52.50 Midwest Steers   n/a   at   - - -   to   - - - Panhandle Steers   n/a   at   - - -   to   - - - Oklahoma City Feeders Steers n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - -   n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - - Heifers n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - -   n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - - Chicago Futures: Live Cattle: Dec up 60 at 8367   Feb '10 up 40 at 8537 Feeders: Jan '10 up 10 at 9182   Mar '10 down 7 at 9285 Cattle Comment Live cattle futures reversed yesterday’s losses to close higher. While the market remains technically weak, it is showing signs of a possible bottom. December futures would need to close above $86 to confirm a low – that is over $2 above today’s close. October placements are expected to show gains over year ago levels, marking the 4th consecutive month of placements larger than year ago levels. Hogs Peoria: were     steady   at   33   to   35 Chicago Futures: Dec down 47 at 5597   Feb '10 down 95 at 6327 Sheep St. Paul sheep shorn slaughter lambs   at   n/a   to   - - - Hogs Comment Hog futures closed mostly lower with February gapping below a double top formation. This suggests additional near term weakness. Ample hog supplies and weakness in pork values are factors in the probable downturn. Poultry  Date: November 19, 2009 Eggs New York:  Ex. Lg. 127-131; Lg. 125-129; Med. 101-105; Chicago:  Ex. Lg. 114-122; Lg. 112-120; Med. 97-105; Eastern Region Turkeys Hens: 8-16 lbs. 84-87 Toms: 16-24 lbs. 84-87   Delmarva Broilers U.S. Grade A The market tone was steady. Demand approaching the weekend was seasonally fair to moderate with most interest focus on holiday items. Supplies of all sizes were sufficient to satisfy current trade needs. In production areas live supplies were moderate; at mixed, but mostly desirable weights. ---------------------------------------- HOW TO UNSUBSCRIBE You are receiving this newsletter because you requested that your e-mail address be added to the Arkansas Farm Bureau Market Report. To unsubscribe or change your subscription information, go to http://www.arfb.com/commodity_marketing/email/ ---------------------------------------- QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS? 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