11/12/2009 Farm Bureau Market Report

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Grain & Soybean Date: November 12, 2009 Soybeans Local Elevators: (Nov) EAST AR:  930 to 956 (NC) Summ. 934 to - - - River Elevators: (Nov) MISS: 947 to 955 ; AR & White 935 to 955 (NC) Summ. 977 to 1010 Ark. Processor Bids: (Nov) 944 to 952  (NC) 975 to 998 Memphis:  (Nov) 960 to 970 (NC)  n/a to - - - Riceland Foods:  (Nov) Stuttgart 944 ; Pendleton 956 ; West Memphis 947 Chicago Futures: Jan '10 up 18 at  990   Mar '10  up  16 3/4  at  995 3/4   May '10 up 15  at  998 3/4   Jul '10 up 14 1/4  at  1003 3/4   Nov '10 up 14  at  999 1/4   Today's Arkansas LDP rate for soybeans is: 0¢ Soybean Comment Soybeans ignored outside markets and traded on dry weather news in Argentina. After a disastrous crop last year, Argentina was projected to raise a huge crop this year. Dry conditions will start to shrink that crop, if they don’t get rain soon. Today’s upturn was a little bit of a surprise considering the $ strengthened and crude oil declined. The case for soybeans going above $10 is weak without significant damage to the South American crop. Corn bounced off old trendline support to retrace a portion of early losses. However, outside market movement was still a factor. Quality concerns will keep the market edgy, but upside potential appears limited. The October high of $4.13 ½ looks like a high water mark, at least in the short term. Wheat Cash bid for November at Memphis  411 3/4 to 431 3/4; Bids to farmers at Local Elevators 447; River Elevators 508-536; Chicago Futures: Dec unchanged    at  531 3/4    Mar '10 up 1/4  at  552 1/4    May '10 up  1/4  at  565 1/4    Jul '10 unchanged    at  576 1/2    Sep '10 up    at  593 1/2Dec    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for wheat is: 0¢ Grain Sorghum Cash bid for November at Memphis  644 to 662; Bids to farmers at River Elevators 555-630; Today's Arkansas LDP rate for sorghum is: 0¢ Corn Cash bid for November at Memphis   366 1/2 to 372 1/2;   new crop at Memphis   361 to 401; Bids to farmers at River Elevators  340 to 361 Chicago Futures: Dec down  3 1/2  at  390 1/2    Mar '10 down  3 1/2  at  405 3/4    Jul '10 down  4  at  423 3/4    Dec '10 down  4  at  438 3/4    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for corn is: 0¢ Grain Comment Wheat was mostly unchanged today. U.S. wheat carryout is expected to be 885 million bushels—a 10 year high. Export sales are expected to drop 14% from a year earlier, but overall sales this marketing year suggest that drop could be even larger. Fund buying is driving the market right now. Based upon historical data, wheat is a bit undervalued compared with corn and beans, and that is creating buying interest. December continues to consolidate around $5. Cotton & Rice  Date: November 12, 2009 Cotton Spot Price, Grade 41 Staple 34: Memphis down 263 at  6292   Greenwood down  263 at 6292 New York Futures: Dec down  88  at  6642    Mar '10 down  77  at  7031    May '10 down  69  at  7194    Jul '10 down  69  at  7327    - - - down  - - -  at  - - -  This week's LDP rate for cotton is  0 cents   The estimate for next week is  0 cents Cotton Comment Cotton made a huge reversal yesterday that fits the definition of a key reversal. The market continued that decline today with December dipping below 66 cents briefly but rallying to close within the recent trading range between 66 and 60 cents. Eventually this year’s smaller crop coupled with stronger demand will move the market higher. Rice Long Grain Cash Bid for  Nov 1348/cwt  to  - - -   - - - - - -  to  - - - Chicago Futures: Jan '10 down  39 1/2  at  1473 1/2    Mar '10 down  40 1/2  at  1497 1/2    May '10 down  42  at  1520 1/2    Jul '10 down  42  at  1545 1/2    - - -   - - -  at  - - -  Today's Arkansas LDP rate for long grain rice is  0¢ medium grain rice is  0¢ Rice Comment January rice futures registered a key reversal top yesterday and wasted little time in showing followthrough today. Old resistance around $14.50 now becomes support. While international factors have firmed recent gains in the futures put U.S. rice out of the reach of most purchasers. Vietnam has little rice to sell at this time but isn’t far from harvest. Thailand has big old crop intervention stocks with a new crop near. India will likely need to import rice, but that may be later instead of sooner. The Phillippines will need rice because of recent typhoon damage, but is likely to be looking for cheaper rice. Cattle & Hogs  Date: November 12, 2009 Cattle As reported by Federal-State Market News, receipts were 2,571 head at sales in Green Forest.  Compared with last week, feeder steers under 550 lbs. sold $4-7 lower . Steers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 106.50 to - - -   500 to 550 lbs. 96.50 to - - -   600 to 650 lbs. 93 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 78.75 to - - - Heifers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 85.75 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 78.75 to - - - Slaughter Cows, Boners 34   to   39 Light Weight 25 to 32 Bulls, Yield Grade   1   1000   to   2100 lbs.   45   to   50, high dressing 62.50 Midwest Steers   remained   at   84   to   - - - Panhandle Steers   were $1-1.50 higher   at   85, few 85.50   to   - - - Oklahoma City Feeders Steers n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - -   n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - - Heifers n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - -   n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - - Chicago Futures: Live Cattle: Dec down 80 at 8285   Feb '10 down 110 at 8482 Feeders: Jan '10 down 97 at 9250   Mar '10 down 50 at 9347 Cattle Comment Cattle futures continue to be under pressure from increasing live cattle supplies and weak beef demand. Historically, beef demand has been closely tied to employment levels, and unemployment continues to rise. December fell to a new contract low today. Support on the weekly chart begins below $82. Hogs Peoria: were     steady   at   33   to   35 Chicago Futures: Dec down 115 at 5445   Feb '10 down 182 at 6135 Sheep St. Paul sheep shorn slaughter lambs   at   n/a   to   - - - Hogs Comment Hogs gapped lower today, with February leaving a clear island top. Uptrending support drawn off the August low is now around $58.50. Cash prices look toppy and futures are overbought, and downward correction was due. Poultry  Date: November 12, 2009 Eggs New York:  Ex. Lg. 121-125; Lg. 119-123; Med. 100-104; Chicago:  Ex. Lg. 111-119; Lg. 109-117; Med. 97-105; Eastern Region Turkeys Hens: 8-16 lbs. 82-85.5 Toms: 16-24 lbs. 82-87   Delmarva Broilers U.S. Grade A The market tone was steady. Retail and food service demand was fair to moderate. Supplies of all sizes were sufficient to satisfy current trade needs. In production areas live supplies were moderate; at mixed, but mostly desirable weights. ---------------------------------------- HOW TO UNSUBSCRIBE You are receiving this newsletter because you requested that your e-mail address be added to the Arkansas Farm Bureau Market Report. To unsubscribe or change your subscription information, go to http://www.arfb.com/commodity_marketing/email/ ---------------------------------------- QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS? If you have any comments or questions about this e-newsletter please e-mail us at mktrpt@arfb.com Arkansas Farm Bureau 10720 Kanis Road Little Rock, AR 72211 501-224-4400 Copyright 2009 Arkansas Farm Bureau, Inc. All rights reserved Terms of Use