11/16/2009 Farm Bureau Market Report

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Grain & Soybean Date: November 16, 2009 Soybeans Local Elevators: (Nov) EAST AR:  952 to 976 (NC) Summ. 959 to - - - River Elevators: (Nov) MISS: 967 to 975 ; AR & White 955 to 966 (NC) Summ. 997 to 1030 Ark. Processor Bids: (Nov) 964 to 972  (NC) 1000 to 1018 Memphis:  (Nov) 985 to 990 (NC)  n/a to - - - Riceland Foods:  (Nov) Stuttgart 964 ; Pendleton 976 ; West Memphis 967 Chicago Futures: Jan '10 up 23 at  1010   Mar '10  up  23 1/2  at  1015 3/4   Jul '10 up 21  at  1023 1/4   Nov '10 up 18 1/2  at  1015 3/4   Jan '10 up 18 1/2  at  1021   Today's Arkansas LDP rate for soybeans is: 0¢ Soybean Comment Soybeans closed above $10 and is again in position to test recent resistance. While harvest is nearing completion there are concerns about quality which have kept the market from moving lower. A weaker dollar and stronger equities and crude oil brought aggressive outside buying to the market. A big October crush and drought conditions in some areas of Argentina provided underlying fundamental support. Technically, January is just a few cents below trendline resistance. Additional resistance is located at recent highs of $10.22 and $10.29. Corn moved above $4.00 as concerns about this week’s weather added support to the outside markets. Harvest is expected to be in the 50 to 60% range, but winter weather could delay completion. Low test weights and earlier freeze damage in the upper Midwest could reduce this year’s crop. Strong demand suggests utilization will equal or exceed this year’s crop. Key resistance is the October high of $4.13 ½. Wheat Cash bid for November at Memphis  442 1/4 to 462 1/4; Bids to farmers at Local Elevators 477; River Elevators 539-567; Chicago Futures: Dec up  23 1/4  at  562 1/4    Mar '10 up 24  at  583 3/4    May '10 up  23 1/4  at  596    Jul '10 up  23 3/4  at  607 1/4    Sep '10 up  23 1/4  at  622 1/4    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for wheat is: 0¢ Grain Sorghum Cash bid for November at Memphis  674 to 686; Bids to farmers at River Elevators 577-652; Today's Arkansas LDP rate for sorghum is: 0¢ Corn Cash bid for November at Memphis   380 1/4 to 385 1/4;   new crop at Memphis   371 1/2 to 411 1/2; Bids to farmers at River Elevators  352 to 372 Chicago Futures: Dec up  11 3/4  at  402 1/4    Mar '10 up  11 3/4  at  417 1/2    Jul '10 up  11 3/4  at  435 1/2    Dec '10 up  11  at  448    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for corn is: 0¢ Grain Comment Wheat posted strong gains today on fund buying. Based upon historical data, wheat is a bit undervalued compared with corn and beans, and that is creating buying interest. Aggressive covering of short positions was also a factor today. Weakness in the value of the dollar is sparking optimism that exports will pick up. December has resistance at the recent high of $5.73. Cotton & Rice  Date: November 16, 2009 Cotton Spot Price, Grade 41 Staple 34: Memphis up 357 at  6767   Greenwood up  357 at 6767 New York Futures: Dec up  134  at  6844    Mar '10 up  134  at  7267    May '10 up  119  at  7403    Jul '10 up  104  at  7508    - - -   - - -  at  - - -  This week's LDP rate for cotton is  0 cents   The estimate for next week is  0 cents Cotton Comment Cotton continued to rally off Thursday’s low back toward previous resistance around 69 cents. A smaller ’09 crop coupled with serious quality issues could be the basis for a solid upturn. There is little question it will take higher prices to pull acreage in 2010, if beans and corn remain near current levels. Rice Long Grain Cash Bid for  Nov 1400/cwt  to  - - -   - - - - - -  to  - - - Chicago Futures: Jan '10 up  39 1/2  at  1525 1/2    Mar '10 up  39 1/2  at  1549 1/2    May '10 up  39  at  1573    Jul '10 up  38  at  1596 1/2    - - -   - - -  at  - - -  Today's Arkansas LDP rate for long grain rice is  0¢ medium grain rice is  0¢ Rice Comment Rice futures continue to rebound with January just 20 cents away from last week’s high. There is growing interest in this year’s crop as the market looks at typhoon damage in the Philippines and the prospect of India becoming an importer instead of an exporter. India could need to buy 1 to 3 million metric tonnes of rice. That could turn the market upside down. Although Thailand is holding huge intervention stocks, perhaps 6 million metric tonnes, or more; at this point they have held firm. If this continues, the market could have substantial upside. Technically, futures have resistance just under $16, from there you jump to retracement objectives of $16.35, $17.94, and $19.53. Those are the 38%, 50% and 62% retracement objectives of the decline from the ’08 high of $24.68 ½ to the ’09 low of $11.19. Cattle & Hogs  Date: November 16, 2009 Cattle As reported by Federal-State Market News, receipts were 3,297 head at sales in Ash Flat & Springdale.  Compared with last week, feeder steers sold $2-5 lower, heifers weak to $4 lower . Steers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 104.50 to - - -   500 to 550 lbs. 92 to - - -   600 to 650 lbs. 87.25 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 95 to - - - Heifers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 88.50 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 95 to - - - Slaughter Cows, Boners 33   to   41 Light Weight 28 to 32.50 Bulls, Yield Grade   1   1000   to   2100 lbs.   48   to   55.50, high dressing 56-61.50 Midwest Steers   remained   at   82   to   84 Panhandle Steers   remained   at   82   to   85.50 Oklahoma City Feeders Steers n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - -   n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - - Heifers n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - -   n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - - Chicago Futures: Live Cattle: Dec up 25 at 8357   Feb '10 down 2 at 8512 Feeders: Jan '10 down 20 at 9237   Mar '10 down 30 at 9330 Cattle Comment Cattle futures posted solid gains. December posted a potential double bottom last Thursday and Friday, meaning support begins at $82.80. Stronger stocks and the weaker dollar were supportive. Hogs Peoria: were     steady   at   33   to   35 Chicago Futures: Dec up 5 at 5495   Feb '10 up 50 at 6235 Sheep St. Paul sheep shorn slaughter lambs   at   n/a   to   - - - Hogs Comment Hogs ended mixed. Uptrending support drawn off the August low is now around $58.50. Cash prices look toppy and futures are overbought, so expect the upside to be limited for now. Poultry  Date: November 16, 2009 Eggs New York:  Ex. Lg. 121-125; Lg. 119-123; Med. 100-104; Chicago:  Ex. Lg. 114-122; Lg. 112-120; Med. 97-105; Eastern Region Turkeys Hens: 8-16 lbs. 82-86.5 Toms: 16-24 lbs. 82-87   Delmarva Broilers U.S. Grade A The market tone was steady. Demand was seasonally fair to moderate with more focus on holiday meat items. Supplies of all sizes were sufficient to satisfy trade business. In production areas, live supplies were moderate at desirable weights. ---------------------------------------- HOW TO UNSUBSCRIBE You are receiving this newsletter because you requested that your e-mail address be added to the Arkansas Farm Bureau Market Report. To unsubscribe or change your subscription information, go to http://www.arfb.com/commodity_marketing/email/ ---------------------------------------- QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS? If you have any comments or questions about this e-newsletter please e-mail us at mktrpt@arfb.com Arkansas Farm Bureau 10720 Kanis Road Little Rock, AR 72211 501-224-4400 Copyright 2009 Arkansas Farm Bureau, Inc. All rights reserved Terms of Use