11/17/2009 Farm Bureau Market Report

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Grain & Soybean Date: November 17, 2009 Soybeans Local Elevators: (Nov) EAST AR:  972 to 996 (NC) Summ. 979 to - - - River Elevators: (Nov) MISS: 987 to 1000 ; AR & White 975 to 985 (NC) Summ. 1014 to 1050 Ark. Processor Bids: (Nov) 984 to - - -  (NC) 1015 to 1038 Memphis:  (Nov) 1009 1/2 to 1014 1/2 (NC)  n/a to - - - Riceland Foods:  (Nov) Stuttgart 984 ; Pendleton 996 ; West Memphis 991 Chicago Futures: Jan '10 up 19 1/2 at  1029 1/2   Mar '10  up  20  at  1035 3/4   Jul '10 up 18 3/4  at  1042   Aug '10 up 18  at  1041 1/2   Nov '10 up 14 1/4  at  1030   Today's Arkansas LDP rate for soybeans is: 0¢ Soybean Comment A stronger $ didn’t deter soybeans as they reversed a weak start to close at the highest level in 3 months. January broke a trendline drawn off the June high and then picked up additional technical buying. Today’s strong close leaves the August high of $10.68 as the next potential upside objective. The quality of this year’s crop, dry conditions in Argentina and strong demand provided the initial impetus for today’s move. Corn closed narrowly mixed with December holding above $4. Weather harvest delays limited downside movement. While the harvest reached expected levels the new delay is raising concerns about eventual yields and total production. With demand expected to exceed earlier production projections this could mean less supply will be available. The recent high of $4.13 is the next upside target. Wheat Cash bid for November at Memphis  454 3/4 to 484 3/4; Bids to farmers at Local Elevators 557-561; River Elevators 551-579; Chicago Futures: Dec up  12 1/2  at  574 3/4    Mar '10 up 12 3/4  at  596 1/2    May'10 up  12 3/4  at  608 3/4    Jul '10 up  11 1/2  at  618 3/4    Sep '10 up  11 1/2  at  637    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for wheat is: 0¢ Grain Sorghum Cash bid for November at Memphis  673 to - - -; Bids to farmers at River Elevators 577-652; Today's Arkansas LDP rate for sorghum is: 0¢ Corn Cash bid for November at Memphis   387 to 390;   new crop at Memphis   370 1/2 to 410 1/2; Bids to farmers at River Elevators  348 to 377 Chicago Futures: Dec down  1/4  at  402    Mar '10 unchanged    at  417 1/2    Jul '10 down  3/4  at  434 3/4    Dec '10 down  1 1/2  at  446 1/2    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for corn is: 0¢ Grain Comment Wheat was mostly just along for the ride today, since there really isn’t much fundamental justification for the up move. However, this leg up suggests that recent lows are indeed significant. The next resistance for December is the August high of $5.84 ½. Cotton & Rice  Date: November 17, 2009 Cotton Spot Price, Grade 41 Staple 34: Memphis up 30 at  6697   Greenwood up  30 at 6697 New York Futures: Dec down  55  at  6789    Mar '10 down  70  at  7197    May '10 down  90  at  7313    July '10 down  99  at  7409    - - -   - - -  at  - - -  This week's LDP rate for cotton is  0 cents   The estimate for next week is  0 cents Cotton Comment Cotton lost steam and closed a little lower with outside markets mostly bearish for commodities. Trade remains confined to the 66-69 cents range that has contained the market for the last 6 weeks. Smaller ’09 crop coupled with serious quality issues could be the basis for a solid upturn. There is little question it will take higher prices to pull acreage in 2010, if beans and corn remain near current levels. Rice Long Grain Cash Bid for  Nov 1391/cwt  to  - - -   - - - - - -  to  - - - Chicago Futures: Jan '10 down  9 1/2  at  1516    Mar '10 down  9 1/2  at  1540    May '10 down  9 1/2  at  1563 1/2    Jul '10 down  9 1/2  at  1587    - - -   - - -  at  - - -  Today's Arkansas LDP rate for long grain rice is  0¢ medium grain rice is  0¢ Rice Comment Rice a little lower as the market failed to followthrough the rebound of last 2 days. However there is growing interest in this year’s crop as the market looks at typhoon damage in the Philippines and the prospect of India becoming an importer instead of an exporter. India could need to buy 1 to 3 million metric tonnes of rice. That could turn the market upside down. Although Thailand is holding huge intervention stocks, perhaps 6 million metric tonnes, or more; at this point they have held firm. If this continues, the market could have substantial upside. Technically, futures have resistance just under $16, from there you jump to retracement objectives of $16.35, $17.94, and $19.53. Those are the 38%, 50% and 62% retracement objectives of the decline from the ’08 high of $24.68 ½ to the ’09 low of $11.19. Cattle & Hogs  Date: November 17, 2009 Cattle As reported by Federal-State Market News, receipts were 403 head at sales in Heber Springs.  Compared with last week, feeder steers sold firm to $2 higher . Steers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 104 to - - -   500 to 550 lbs. n/a to - - -   600 to 650 lbs. n/a to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 88 to - - - Heifers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 85.50 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 77 to - - - Slaughter Cows, Boners 38   to   44 Light Weight 22 to 27 Bulls, Yield Grade   1   1000   to   2100 lbs.   46   to   49 Midwest Steers   n/a   at   - - -   to   - - - Panhandle Steers   were 1 higher to $2.50 lower   at   83   to   - - - Oklahoma City Feeders Steers 500 to 550 lbs. 103 to 112.50   600 to 650 lbs. 87 to 97 Heifers 550 to 600 lbs. 85 to 90.10   600 to 650 lbs. 79 to 86 Chicago Futures: Live Cattle: Dec up 50 at 8407   Feb '10 up 52 at 8565 Feeders: Jan '10 up 40 at 9277   Mar '10 up 35 at 9365 Cattle Comment A strong rebound in the dollar and expectations for lower cash trade today resulted in early losses for cattle futures, but the market turned higher to close on support from higher beef prices and technical buying. December posted a potential double bottom last Thursday and Friday, meaning support begins at $82.80. Hogs Peoria: were     steady   at   33   to   35 Chicago Futures: Dec up 145 at 5640   Feb '10 up 162 at 6397 Sheep St. Paul sheep shorn slaughter lambs   at   n/a   to   - - - Hogs Comment Hogs ended higher. Cash prices look toppy and futures are overbought, so expect the upside to be limited for now. Resistance for February begins at the recent high of $64.80. Poultry  Date: November 17, 2009 Eggs New York:  Ex. Lg. 123-127; Lg. 121-125; Med. 101-105; Chicago:  Ex. Lg. 114-122; Lg. 112-120; Med. 97-105; Eastern Region Turkeys Hens: 8-16 lbs. 84-87 Toms: 16-24 lbs. 84-87   Delmarva Broilers U.S. Grade A The market tone was steady. Retail and food service demand was seasonally fair to moderate, and trading limited to regular commitments. Supplies of all sizes were sufficient to satisfy current trade needs. In production areas live supplies were moderate; at mixed, but mostly desirable weights. ---------------------------------------- HOW TO UNSUBSCRIBE You are receiving this newsletter because you requested that your e-mail address be added to the Arkansas Farm Bureau Market Report. To unsubscribe or change your subscription information, go to http://www.arfb.com/commodity_marketing/email/ ---------------------------------------- QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS? If you have any comments or questions about this e-newsletter please e-mail us at mktrpt@arfb.com Arkansas Farm Bureau 10720 Kanis Road Little Rock, AR 72211 501-224-4400 Copyright 2009 Arkansas Farm Bureau, Inc. All rights reserved Terms of Use