07/18/2008 Farm Bureau Market Report

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Grain & Soybean Date: July 18, 2008 Soybeans Local Elevators: (Jul) EAST AR:  1409 to - - - (NC) Summ. 1335 to 1361 River Elevators: (Jul) MISS: 1400 to 1429 ; AR & White 1400 to 1406 (NC) Summ. 1341 to 1378 Ark. Processor Bids: (Jul) n/a to - - -  (NC) 1355 to 1357 Memphis:  (Jul) 1455 to 1465 (NC)  1373 to 1378 Riceland Foods:  (Jul) Stuttgart 1357 ; Pendleton 1361 ; West Memphis 1378 Chicago Futures: Aug down 51 at  1470   Sep  down  49 1/2  at  1458 1/2   Nov down 50  at  1448   Jan '09 down 50  at  1463 3/4   Nov '09 down 38 1/2  at  1393 1/2   Today's Arkansas LDP rate for soybeans is: 0¢ Soybean Comment Soybeans tumbled lower again today, and appear to be confirming a top. Long liquidation by index funds seems to be driving the market lower. Crude oil prices have declined sharply over the past week, leading to weakness in grains. November now has support between $14.02 and $14.16. December corn appears headed to a retest of $6. Resistance starts near $7 which was last week’s low. Wheat Cash bid for July at Memphis  599 to 604; Bids to farmers at Local Elevators 559-569; River Elevators 544-594; Chicago Futures: Sep down  5 1/2  at  804    Dec down 5 1/4  at  828 1/2    Mar '09 down  5  at  851 1/2    May '09 down  5 1/4  at  867    Jul '09 down  6 3/4  at  879 3/4    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for wheat is: 0¢ Grain Sorghum Cash bid for new crop at Memphis  837 to 846; Bids to farmers at River Elevators 738-911; Today's Arkansas LDP rate for sorghum is: 0¢ Corn Cash bid for July at Memphis   559 1/2 to 574 1/2;   new crop at Memphis   549 1/2 to - - -; Bids to farmers at River Elevators  539 to 554 Chicago Futures: Sep down  21 3/4  at  609 1/2    Dec down  21 1/2  at  628 1/2    Mar '09 down  21  at  647 3/4    Dec '09 down  11  at  631    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for corn is: 0¢ Grain Comment Wheat was sharply lower, again following corn and beans. The fundamental picture for wheat does appear bearish for prices. September support is seen at $7.97 and $7.47 with resistance just under $8.60. Cotton & Rice  Date: July 18, 2008 Cotton Spot Price, Grade 41 Staple 34: Memphis up 6 at  6485   Greenwood up  6 at 6485 New York Futures: Oct down  15  at  7014    Dec down  6  at  7305    Mar '09 down  15  at  7838    May '09 up  4  at  8038    Jul '09 down  6  at  8163  This week's LDP rate for cotton is  0 cents   The estimate for next week is  0 cents Cotton Comment Cotton ended mostly higher. December remains in a consolidation mode just above last week’s low of 70.86 cents. But, unless import movement improves this could just be a resting spot as the market moves lower to find buyers. Big ending stocks will offset this year’s smaller planting acreage and expected smaller crop. In the long run, cotton will have to be more competitive with soybeans and corn to garner more acreage. A projected reduction in stocks for the 08/09 marketing year should boost values later in the year. Rice Long Grain Cash Bid for  Jul 1800/cwt  to  - - -   Aug 1800/cwt  to  - - - Chicago Futures: Sep down  3  at  1780    Nov down  15  at  1794    Jan '09 down  15  at  1825    Mar '09 down  16  at  1855    - - -   - - -  at  - - -  Today's Arkansas LDP rate for long grain rice is  0¢ medium grain rice is  0¢ Rice Comment Rice followed crude oil and other grains lower. Overall movement remains in a narrow consolidation area just below $18. USDA projected production at 205 million cwt in last week’s supply demand report. Combined with a 4 million cwt increase in beginning stocks, that increased total supply by 12 million cwt. The impact of that increase was mitigated by an 8 million cwt increase in exports of which 6 million cwt was rough rice. That netted a 3.5 cwt increase in projected ending stocks for 08/09 of 21.6 million cwt – all of which was long grain. Combined with a quiet international market and the approaching U.S. harvest, it could break current support just below $18 for the September contract. Cattle & Hogs  Date: July 18, 2008 Cattle As reported by Federal-State Market News, receipts were 10,415 head at sales in Arkansas this week.  Compared with last week, feeder steers sold mostly weak to $3 lower. Feeder heifers sold steadty to $1 lower . Steers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 111.54 to - - -   500 to 550 lbs. 105.60 to - - -   600 to 650 lbs. 104.05 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 100.81 to - - - Heifers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 100.13 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 91.76 to - - - Slaughter Cows, Boners 50   to   57 Light Weight 35 to 44 Bulls, Yield Grade   1   1000   to   2100 lbs.   64   to   71, high dressing 71.50-76 Midwest Steers   n/a   at   - - -   to   - - - Panhandle Steers   n/a   at   - - -   to   - - - Oklahoma City Feeders Steers 500 to 550 lbs. 110 to 129   600 to 650 lbs. 105 to 120 Heifers 500 to 550 lbs. 97 to 115   600 to 650 lbs. 95.50 to 112.75 Chicago Futures: Live Cattle: Aug up 10 at 9750   Dec up 17 at 10807 Feeders: Aug up 232 at 11387   Oct up 175 at 11627 Cattle Comment Live cattle traded in a relatively narrow range after charting a big bearish reversal yesterday. Profit taking limited losses today, but a move to the 62% retracement level of $103.50 for October looks likely. Feeder futures, on the other hand, were sharply higher in light of lower corn prices. Hogs Peoria: were $1     higher   at   45   to   47 Chicago Futures: Aug up 20 at 7690   Oct down 25 at 7265 Sheep St. Paul sheep shorn slaughter lambs   at   n/a   to   - - - Hogs Comment Hog futures were mostly lower. Strong cash prices were supportive in early dealings, but expectations for record hog supplies this fall limited the upside. Poultry  Date: July 18, 2008 Eggs New York:  Ex. Lg. 95-99; Lg. 93-97; Med. 73-87; Chicago:  Ex. Lg. 97-105; Lg. 95-103; Med. 76-84; Eastern Region Turkeys Hens: 8-16 lbs. 92-94 Toms: 16-24 lbs. 92-94   Delmarva Broilers U.S. Grade A Trade sentiment was steady at best. Supplies of all sizes were more than sufficient to satisfy trade needs. In productions areas, live supplies were moderate at mostly desirable weights. ---------------------------------------- HOW TO UNSUBSCRIBE You are receiving this newsletter because you requested that your e-mail address be added to the Arkansas Farm Bureau Market Report. To unsubscribe or change your subscription information, go to http://www.arfb.com/commodity_marketing/email/ ---------------------------------------- QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS? If you have any comments or questions about this e-newsletter please e-mail us at mktrpt@arfb.com Arkansas Farm Bureau 10720 Kanis Road Little Rock, AR 72211 501-224-4400 Copyright 2008 Arkansas Farm Bureau, Inc. All rights reserved Terms of Use