07/16/2008 Farm Bureau Market Report

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Grain & Soybean Date: July 16, 2008 Soybeans Local Elevators: (Jul) EAST AR:  1509 to - - - (NC) Summ. 1435 to 1461 River Elevators: (Jul) MISS: 1505 to 1542 ; AR & White 1513 to 1519 (NC) Summ. 1440 to 1478 Ark. Processor Bids: (Jul) n/a to - - -  (NC) 1455 to 1457 Memphis:  (Jul) 1568 to 1573 (NC)  1478 to - - - Riceland Foods:  (NC) Stuttgart 1457 ; Pendleton 1461 ; West Memphis 1478 Chicago Futures: Aug up 31 at  1573   Sep  up  30  at  1558   Nov up 32  at  1548   Jan '09 up 31 3/4  at  1563 1/4   Nov '09 up 13  at  1465   Today's Arkansas LDP rate for soybeans is: 0¢ Soybean Comment Soybeans led today’s reversal bolstered by long range forecasts that suggest extremely high temperatures for late July and early August in the Midwest. The reversal put November soybeans back above yesterday’s broken trendline. However, it also emphasizes the very volatile nature of the market and the high probability there will be major shifts in price over the weeks ahead. Support remains in the $14.70 to $14.80 area with resistance ranging from $15.60 to $16.15. December corn tested support near $6.50 before recovering and closing higher. Resistance starts near $7 which was last week’s low. Wheat Cash bid for July at Memphis  634 to - - -; Bids to farmers at Local Elevators 589-599; River Elevators 578-624; Chicago Futures: Sep up  23  at  834    Dec up 22 1/2  at  857 1/4    Mar '09 up  22 3/4  at  879 3/4    May '09 up  24 1/2  at  894 1/2    Jul '09 up  29 3/4  at  908 1/4    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for wheat is: 0¢ Grain Sorghum Cash bid for new crop at Memphis  924 to 933; Bids to farmers at River Elevators 860-997; Today's Arkansas LDP rate for sorghum is: 0¢ Corn Cash bid for July at Memphis   618 1/2 to 623 1/2;   new crop at Memphis   598 1/2 to - - -; Bids to farmers at River Elevators  588 to 603 Chicago Futures: Sep up  10 1/4  at  658 1/2    Dec up  10 1/2  at  677 1/4    Mar '09 up  10 1/4  at  695 1/2    Dec '09 up  10 1/4  at  657    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for corn is: 0¢ Grain Comment Wheat followed corn and beans higher with this week’s declining crop progress numbers providing underlying support. Overall world supplies may still push wheat lower. September support is seen at $7.97 and $7.47 with resistance just under $8.60. Cotton & Rice  Date: July 16, 2008 Cotton Spot Price, Grade 41 Staple 34: Memphis up 3 at  6541   Greenwood up  3 at 6541 New York Futures: Oct down  27  at  7061    Dec down  10  at  7361    Mar '09 down  13  at  7901    May '09 up  6  at  8106    Jul '09 up  6  at  8248  This week's LDP rate for cotton is  0 cents   The estimate for next week is  0 cents Cotton Comment Cotton was virtually unchanged as grains reversed recent losses to close higher. December remains in a consolidation mode just above last week’s low of 70.86 cents. But, unless import movement improves this could just be a resting spot as the market moves lower to find buyers. Big ending stocks will offset this year’s smaller planting acreage and expected smaller crop. In the long run, cotton will have to be more competitive with soybeans and corn to garner more acreage. A projected reduction in stocks for the 08/09 marketing year should boost values later in the year. Rice Long Grain Cash Bid for  Jul 1800/cwt  to  - - -   Aug 1800/cwt  to  - - - Chicago Futures: Sep unchanged    at  1780    Nov up  4  at  1807    Jan '09 up  1  at  1838    Mar '09 unchanged    at  1869    - - -   - - -  at  - - -  Today's Arkansas LDP rate for long grain rice is  0¢ medium grain rice is  0¢ Rice Comment Rice was steady to slightly higher as the recent trend of light trading continued. Overall movement remains in a narrow consolidation area just below $18. USDA projected production at 205 million cwt in last week’s supply demand report. Combined with a 4 million cwt increase in beginning stocks, that increased total supply by 12 million cwt. The impact of that increase was mitigated by an 8 million cwt increase in exports of which 6 million cwt was rough rice. That netted a 3.5 cwt increase in projected ending stocks for 08/09 of 21.6 million cwt – all of which was long grain. Combined with a quiet international market and the approaching U.S. harvest, it could break current support just below $18 for the September contract. Cattle & Hogs  Date: July 16, 2008 Cattle As reported by Federal-State Market News, receipts were 748 head at sales in Conway & Pocahontas.  Compared with last week, feeder steers sold firm to $3 higher except calves under 400 lbs. 2-4 lower . Steers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 109.07 to - - -   500 to 550 lbs. 106.55 to - - -   600 to 650 lbs. 104.86 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 97.04 to - - - Heifers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 96.60 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 89.25 to - - - Slaughter Cows, Boners 52   to   58.50 Light Weight 38 to 42 Bulls, Yield Grade   1   1000   to   2100 lbs.   66   to   73.50, high dressing 77 Midwest Steers   were $2 higher to steady   at   97   to   - - - Panhandle Steers   were $2 higher to steady   at   97   to   - - - Oklahoma City Feeders Steers 600 to 650 lbs. 112.50 to 116.25   650 to 700 lbs. 110.50 to 112.50 Heifers 500 to 550 lbs. 97 to 105.50   n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - - Chicago Futures: Live Cattle: Aug down 100 at 9860   Dec down 52 at 10635 Feeders: Aug down 32 at 11112   Oct down 57 at 11470 Cattle Comment Live cattle were lower today as there was little followthrough noted on yesterday’s positive reversal. The market is near a 50% retracement of the March to June gains and could find support in this area. However, feedlots will have to get current on marketings fast. Hogs Peoria: were $1     higher   at   44.5   to   45 Chicago Futures: Aug up 150 at 7657   Oct up 155 at 7375 Sheep St. Paul sheep shorn slaughter lambs   at   n/a   to   - - - Hogs Comment Hog futures ended on a positive note despite a softer tone in the cash market. Packer margins are declining but are still positive and should provide support in the near term. Poultry  Date: July 16, 2008 Eggs New York:  Ex. Lg. 98-102; Lg. 96-100; Med. 76-80; Chicago:  Ex. Lg. 97-105; Lg. 95-103; Med. 76-84; Eastern Region Turkeys Hens: 8-16 lbs. 92-94 Toms: 16-24 lbs. 92-94   Delmarva Broilers U.S. Grade A Trade sentiment was steady. Demand was fair to moderate with light trading. Supplies of all sizes were at least adequate to satisfy trade needs. In production areas, live supplies were moderate. Weights were mostly desirable. ---------------------------------------- HOW TO UNSUBSCRIBE You are receiving this newsletter because you requested that your e-mail address be added to the Arkansas Farm Bureau Market Report. To unsubscribe or change your subscription information, go to http://www.arfb.com/commodity_marketing/email/ ---------------------------------------- QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS? If you have any comments or questions about this e-newsletter please e-mail us at mktrpt@arfb.com Arkansas Farm Bureau 10720 Kanis Road Little Rock, AR 72211 501-224-4400 Copyright 2008 Arkansas Farm Bureau, Inc. All rights reserved Terms of Use