05/14/2008 Farm Bureau Market Report

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Grain & Soybean Date: May 14, 2008 Soybeans Local Elevators: (May) EAST AR:  1310 to - - - (NC) Summ. 1225 to - - - River Elevators: (May) MISS: 1282 to 1334 ; AR & White 1305 to 1311 (NC) Summ. 1231 to 1265 Ark. Processor Bids: (May) 1310 to - - -  (NC) 1253 to - - - Memphis:  (May) 1338 1/2 to 1343 1/2 (NC)  1263 to 1266 Riceland Foods:  (May) Stuttgart 1318 ; Pendleton 1327 ; West Memphis 1347 Chicago Futures: July unchanged at  1379 1/2   Aug  up  2  at  1376 1/2   Sept up 4 1/4  at  1349   Nov up 7 1/4  at  1333   Nov '09 up 9  at  1294   Today's Arkansas LDP rate for soybeans is: 0¢ Soybean Comment Soybeans were higher again today. Today’s close could bring resistance at $13.48 or perhaps even the contract high at $14.66 into play. Tightening U.S. stocks leave this market vulnerable to a real squeeze later this summer. In the meantime, futures are well above USDA’s average price projection of $10.50 to $12.00. This suggests fundamentals do not support current price levels, but their projection does not take index funds into account either. Wheat Cash bid for new crop at Memphis  614 to - - -; Bids to farmers at Local Elevators 596; River Elevators 576-600; Chicago Futures: July down  31 3/4  at  764    Sept down 31 3/4  at  778 1/4    Dec down  31 1/2  at  799 1/4    March '09 down  30 1/2  at  818 1/2    July '09 down  25 1/2  at  823    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for wheat is: 0¢ Grain Sorghum Cash bid for May at Memphis  961 to 986; Bids to farmers at River Elevators 877-938; Today's Arkansas LDP rate for sorghum is: 0¢ Corn Cash bid for May at Memphis   563 1/4 to 564 1/4;   New crop at Memphis   558 1/4 to 563 1/4; Bids to farmers at River Elevators  544 to 559 Chicago Futures: July down  11  at  596 1/4    Sept down  11 1/4  at  608 1/4    Dec down  10 1/2  at  620 1/2    Dec '09 down  3 1/2  at  592 1/2    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for corn is: 0¢ Grain Comment Wheat futures were lower across the board. While stocks for the current marketing year are at record-low levels, the situation is expected to very different this time next year, and that is keeping a lid on the market. July fell out the bottom of the recent consolidation range and now could head toward a retest of support between $6.50 and $6.70. Cotton & Rice  Date: May 14, 2008 Cotton Spot Price, Grade 41 Staple 34: Memphis down 91 at  6049   Greenwood down  91 at 6049 New York Futures: July down  91  at  6999    Dec down  85  at  7877    March '09 down  80  at  8358    May '09 down  93  at  8494    July '09 down  90  at  8619  This week's LDP rate for cotton is  0 cents   The estimate for next week is  0 cents Cotton Comment Cotton was lower again today as overall fundamentals remain negative. Last week’s supply demand report lowered use and pushed projected ending stocks to 9.9 million bales. This limits upside potential, even with a much smaller acreage in ’08. USDA projects ’08-’09 stocks at 5.9 million bales. The only good news was a projected 6 million bale drop in world stocks in 08-09. December futures have support at 77 cents and resistance at 89.49 cents. Trading is likely to hold in the bottom half of that range. Rice Long Grain Cash Bid for  May 2140/cwt  to  - - -   June/July 2140/cwt  to  - - - Chicago Futures: July down  75  at  2149    Sept down  75  at  1884    Nov down  73  at  1867    Jan '09 down  68  at  1900    March '09 down  68  at  1930  Today's Arkansas LDP rate for long grain rice is  0¢ medium grain rice is  0¢ Rice Comment Rice gapped lower today, but still held within the recent trading range. The overall fundamental picture remains quite tight through 08-09. USDA put ’08 U.S. production at just 197 million cwt; virtually unchanged from 07. USDA trimmed export projections significantly to keep ending stocks at 17.1 million cwt. That means price will likely have to do some rationing. World production estimates at 432 million metric tones were slightly higher than use. However, it leaves little room for crop problems. For now, November futures support is the recent low of $18.23. Resistance starts at $20.25. Both are subject to change at anytime. Cattle & Hogs  Date: May 14, 2008 Cattle As reported by Federal-State Market News, receipts were 1179 head at sales in Conway and Pocahontas.  Compared with last week, feeder steers sold steady to $1 higher, heifers sold $2 to $3 higher . Steers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 114.73 to - - -   500 to 550 lbs. 108.71 to - - -   600 to 650 lbs. 103.42 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 94.06 to - - - Heifers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   500 to 550 lbs. 101.86 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 94.06 to - - - Slaughter Cows, Boners 49   to   55 Light Weight 36 to 42 Bulls, Yield Grade   1   1000   to   2100 lbs.   62   to   69 Midwest Steers   were steady to $1 higher   at   90   to   91 Panhandle Steers   were steady to $1 higher   at   90   to   91 Oklahoma City Feeders Steers 500 to 550 lbs. 135.25 to 136.25   550 to 600 lbs. 116 to 125 Heifers 500 to 550 lbs. 110.50 to 113.25   550 to 600 lbs. 107.5 to 110.75 Chicago Futures: Live Cattle: June up 27 at 9462   Aug up 25 at 10022 Feeders: May down 30 at 10845   Aug up 10 at 11275 Cattle Comment Cattle futures ended mixed again today. Speculative profit taking and news that South Korea will further delay the resumption of U.S. beef imports limited the upside. June has overhead resistance in the $95.50 area. Continued weakness in corn was supportive for feeders. August could test resistance at $113.50. Hogs Peoria: were     steady   at   50.5   to   51 Chicago Futures: June up 50 at 7817   Oct down 130 at 7355 Sheep St. Paul n/a   at   - - -   to   - - - Hogs Comment Hogs were mixed, with the upside limited by profit taking and ideas the cash market is topping. June is in position to test resistance at $80 and possibly the contract high of $80.10. Poultry  Date: May 14, 2008 Eggs New York:  Ex. Lg. 102-106; Lg. 100-104; Med. 91-95; Chicago:  Ex. Lg. 91-99; Lg. 89-97; Med. 81-89; Eastern Region Turkeys Hens: 8-16 lbs. 88-90 Toms: 16-24 lbs. 88-90   Delmarva Broilers U.S. Grade A Trade sentiment was mostly steady. Demand was light to moderate for mid-week trading. Supplies of all sizes were usually sufficient to satisfy trade needs. In production areas, live supplies were moderate at mostly desirable weights. ---------------------------------------- HOW TO UNSUBSCRIBE You are receiving this newsletter because you requested that your e-mail address be added to the Arkansas Farm Bureau Market Report. To unsubscribe or change your subscription information, go to http://www.arfb.com/commodity_marketing/email/ ---------------------------------------- QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS? If you have any comments or questions about this e-newsletter please e-mail us at mktrpt@arfb.com Arkansas Farm Bureau 10720 Kanis Road Little Rock, AR 72211 501-224-4400 Copyright 2008 Arkansas Farm Bureau, Inc. All rights reserved Terms of Use