05/13/2008 Farm Bureau Market Report

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Grain & Soybean Date: May 13, 2008 Soybeans Local Elevators: (May) EAST AR:  1310 to - - - (NC) Summ. 1218 to - - - River Elevators: (May) MISS: 1282 to 1336 ; AR & White 1307 to 1313 (NC) Summ. 1224 to 1258 Ark. Processor Bids: (May) 1310 to - - -  (NC) 1246 to - - - Memphis:  (May) 1338 1/2 to 1339 1/2 (NC)  1255 3/4 to 1258 3/4 Riceland Foods:  (n/a) Stuttgart - - - ; Pendleton - - - ; West Memphis - - - Chicago Futures: May up 39 1/2 at  1374 1/2   July  up  37  at  1379 1/2   Aug up 37  at  1374 1/2   Nov up 36 1/2  at  1325 3/4   Nov '09 up 24 1/4  at  1285   Today's Arkansas LDP rate for soybeans is: 0¢ Soybean Comment Soybeans received another strong boost which carried November futures above recent resistance at $13.16. Today’s higher close could bring resistance at $13.48 or perhaps even the contract high at $14.66 into play. Tightening U.S. stocks leave this market vulnerable to a real squeeze later this summer. In the meantime, futures are well above USDA’s average price projection of $10.50 to $12.00. This suggests fundamentals do not support current price levels, but their projection does not take index funds into account either. Wheat Cash bid for new crop at Memphis  645 3/4 to 650 3/4; Bids to farmers at Local Elevators 628; River Elevators 613-637; Chicago Futures: May down  8  at  785 1/2    July down 9 3/4  at  795 3/4    Sept down  9 3/4  at  810    Dec down  9 1/2  at  830 3/4    July '09 down  4 1/2  at  848 1/2    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for wheat is: 0¢ Grain Sorghum Cash bid for May at Memphis  981 to 1006; Bids to farmers at River Elevators 896-957; Today's Arkansas LDP rate for sorghum is: 0¢ Corn Cash bid for May at Memphis   573 1/4 to 575 1/4;   New crop at Memphis   569 1/2 to 574 1/2; Bids to farmers at River Elevators  555 to 570 Chicago Futures: May down  6  at  597 1/2    July down  7 1/2  at  607 1/4    Sept down  7 1/4  at  619 1/2    Dec down  6 3/4  at  631    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for corn is: 0¢ Grain Comment Wheat futures were lower across the board. While stocks for the current marketing year are at record-low levels, the situation is expected to very different this time next year, and that is keeping a lid on the market. July is consolidating between resistance around the $8.40 range and support at the recent low of $7.77. Cotton & Rice  Date: May 13, 2008 Cotton Spot Price, Grade 41 Staple 34: Memphis down 91 at  6140   Greenwood down  91 at 6140 New York Futures: July down  91  at  7090    Dec down  90  at  7962    March '09 down  44  at  8438    May '09 down  30  at  8587    July '09 down  21  at  8709  This week's LDP rate for cotton is  0 cents   The estimate for next week is  0 cents Cotton Comment Cotton was lower again today as overall fundamentals remain negative. Last week’s supply demand report lowered use and pushed projected ending stocks to 9.9 million bales. This limits upside potential, even with a much smaller acreage in ’08. USDA projects ’08-’09 stocks at 5.9 million bales. The only good news was a projected 6 million bale drop in world stocks in 08-09. December futures have support at 77 cents and resistance at 89.49 cents. Trading is likely to hold in the bottom half of that range. Rice Long Grain Cash Bid for  n/a - - -  to  - - -   n/a - - -  to  - - - Chicago Futures: May down  44  at  2200    July down  50  at  2224    Sept down  50  at  1959    Nov down  50  at  1940    - - -   - - -  at  - - -  Today's Arkansas LDP rate for long grain rice is  0¢ medium grain rice is  0¢ Rice Comment Rice followed corn and wheat lower but remains within the recent trading range. The overall fundamental picture remains quite tight through 08-09. USDA put ’08 U.S. production at just 197 million cwt; virtually unchanged from 07. USDA trimmed export projections significantly to keep ending stocks at 17.1 million cwt. That means price will likely have to do some rationing. World production estimates at 432 million metric tones were slightly higher than use. However, it leaves little room for crop problems. For now, November futures support is the recent low of $18.23. Resistance starts at $20.25. Both are subject to change at anytime. Cattle & Hogs  Date: May 13, 2008 Cattle As reported by Federal-State Market News, receipts were 1226 head at sales in Fort Smith and Marshall.  Compared with last week, feeder steers sold $1 to $4 higher . Steers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 119.82 to - - -   500 to 550 lbs. 111.49 to - - -   600 to 650 lbs. 106.82 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 104 to - - - Heifers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   500 to 550 lbs. 104.78 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 97.92 to - - - Slaughter Cows, Boners 50   to   56 Light Weight 40 to 44 Bulls, Yield Grade   1   1000   to   2100 lbs.   65   to   69.5 Midwest Steers   were $4 lower   at   90   to   - - - Panhandle Steers   were $3 to $4 lower   at   90   to   - - - Oklahoma City Feeders Steers 500 to 550 lbs. 116 to 123   550 to 600 lbs. 108 to 118 Heifers 500 to 550 lbs. 103.50 to 110   550 to 600 lbs. 100 to 105.50 Chicago Futures: Live Cattle: June up 5 at 9435   Aug down 12 at 9997 Feeders: May up 82 at 10875   Aug up 187 at 11265 Cattle Comment Cattle futures ended mixed again today. Feeders were higher on support from strong cash prices and lower corn futures. Live contracts were under pressure from product market weakness and ideas retailers already have their Memorial Day needs covered. Expectations for a bullish cattle on feed report Friday limited losses. June has overhead resistance in the $95.50 area. August feeders have resistance at the recent high of $111. Hogs Peoria: were 50¢ to $1.50     higher   at   50.5   to   51 Chicago Futures: June up 65 at 7767   Oct down 30 at 7485 Sheep St. Paul n/a   at   - - -   to   - - - Hogs Comment Hogs were mixed with deferred contracts under pressure from lower corn prices. That is fueling ideas that herd liquidation won’t be what some have anticipated, and that production will continue at record-high levels. June is in position to test resistance at $80 and possibly the contract high of $80.10. Poultry  Date: May 13, 2008 Eggs New York:  Ex. Lg. 102-106; Lg. 100-104; Med. 91-95; Chicago:  Ex. Lg. 91-99; Lg. 89-97; Med. 81-89; Eastern Region Turkeys Hens: 8-16 lbs. 88-90 Toms: 16-24 lbs. 88-90   Delmarva Broilers U.S. Grade A Trade sentiment was generally steady. Supplies of all sizes were sufficient to closely balanced for trade needs. In production areas live supplies were moderate. Weights were mostly desirable. ---------------------------------------- HOW TO UNSUBSCRIBE You are receiving this newsletter because you requested that your e-mail address be added to the Arkansas Farm Bureau Market Report. To unsubscribe or change your subscription information, go to http://www.arfb.com/commodity_marketing/email/ ---------------------------------------- QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS? If you have any comments or questions about this e-newsletter please e-mail us at mktrpt@arfb.com Arkansas Farm Bureau 10720 Kanis Road Little Rock, AR 72211 501-224-4400 Copyright 2008 Arkansas Farm Bureau, Inc. All rights reserved Terms of Use