08/13/2008 Farm Bureau Market Report

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Grain & Soybean Date: August 13, 2008 Soybeans Local Elevators: (Aug) EAST AR:  n/a to - - - (NC) Summ. 1176 to 1213 River Elevators: (Aug) MISS: 1207 to 1236 ; AR & White 1207 to 1220 (NC) Summ. 1177 to 1230 Ark. Processor Bids: (Aug) n/a to - - -  (NC) 1206 to 1209 Memphis:  (Aug) 1239 to - - - (NC)  1229 to - - - Riceland Foods:  (NC) Stuttgart 1209 ; Pendleton 1213 ; West Memphis 1231 Chicago Futures: Sep up 70 at  1277 1/2   Nov  up  70  at  1284   Jan '09 up 70  at  1301 1/2   Mar '09 up 70  at  1315 1/4   Nov '09 up 70  at  1284   Today's Arkansas LDP rate for soybeans is: 0¢ Soybean Comment Soybeans extended yesterday’s upturn following the positive supply/demand report. A crop below 3 billion bushels and tight ending stocks suggest price will still have to ration supplies. A late start to the crop also leaves it vulnerable to late season weather. Initial resistance starts around $13.50. Corn also benefited from the big move in beans and crude oil. Yesterday’s key reversal signaled a probable near term bottom and today’s move certainly amplified that feeling. Initial resistance lies between $5.80 and $5.25. However, the first retracement objective is $6.44. Wheat Cash bid for August at Memphis  670 1/4 to 675 1/4; Bids to farmers at Local Elevators 617; River Elevators 604-650; Chicago Futures: Sep up  60  at  850 1/4    Dec up 60  at  875 1/4    Mar '09 up  60  at  899 1/2    May '09 up  60  at  914 1/2    Jul '09 up  60  at  925 3/4    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for wheat is: 0¢ Grain Sorghum Cash bid for August at Memphis  828 to - - -; Bids to farmers at River Elevators 704-884; Today's Arkansas LDP rate for sorghum is: 0¢ Corn Cash bid for August at Memphis   509 to 519;   new crop at Memphis   n/a to - - -; Bids to farmers at River Elevators  481 to 509 Chicago Futures: Sep up  30  at  539    Dec up  30  at  558 1/2    Mar '09 up  30  at  577 3/4    Dec '09 up  27 1/4  at  599    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for corn is: 0¢ Grain Comment Wheat broke out of a sideways trading range to close limit higher. Overall fundamentals suggest wheat is probably overpriced, but the recent price plunge did accelerate export demand. A stronger $ will hamper upside movement at some point. Resistance centers on a gap between $8.58 and $8.72. While the late June high of $9.61 is probably unattainable. Cotton & Rice  Date: August 13, 2008 Cotton Spot Price, Grade 41 Staple 34: Memphis up 154 at  6407   Greenwood up  154 at 6407 New York Futures: Oct up  158  at  9886    Dec up  162  at  7125    Mar '09 up  157  at  7637    May '09 up  60  at  7600    Jul '09 up  149  at  7923  This week's LDP rate for cotton is  0 cents   The estimate for next week is  0 cents Cotton Comment Cotton was carried back near the top of a narrow consolidation area as the enthusiasm in grains and soybeans spilled over into cotton. Yesterday’s report reduced the projected production to 13.7 million bales. Projected 08/09 ending stocks of just 4.6 million bales is a positive as we look down the road. Given that kind of stocks, the market will be looking at buying some acres back to cotton production in ’09. Current resistance for December is between 72 and 72.5 cents, with strong resistance just above 75 cents. While a close below last week’s low of 68.2 cents would suggest a move to the mid 60’s or lower. Rice Long Grain Cash Bid for  Aug 1600/cwt  to  - - -   - - - - - -  to  - - - Chicago Futures: Sep up  50  at  1652    Nov up  50  at  1680    Jan '09 up  49  at  1708    Mar '09 up  50  at  1737    - - -   - - -  at  - - -  Today's Arkansas LDP rate for long grain rice is  0¢ medium grain rice is  0¢ Rice Comment Rice appears to have benefited from limit gains in soybeans and grains and closes sharply higher. Yesterday’s rice production figure of 204.9 million cwt has been met with a lot of question from producers and others. Most suggest this year’s late start has trimmed potential yields. An upward revision in ending stocks has also been questioned. The market, while thinly traded, responded in a positive manner putting September in position to perhaps test resistance around $17. Support at $16 continues to hold. The international market remains unsettled, with Vietnam continuing to make offers well below their official minimum export price (MEP) of $750. Unofficially, it appears that $600 may soon be the MEP. Cattle & Hogs  Date: August 13, 2008 Cattle As reported by Federal-State Market News, receipts were 1,071 head at sales in Conway & Pocahontas.  Compared with last week, feeder steers sold $2-4 higher . Steers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 114.85 to - - -   500 to 550 lbs. 112.36 to - - -   600 to 650 lbs. 105.84 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 101.93 to - - - Heifers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 102.03 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 94.31 to - - - Slaughter Cows, Boners 53   to   58 Light Weight 9 to 42 Bulls, Yield Grade   1   1000   to   2100 lbs.   65   to   73 Midwest Steers   were quoted   at   98   to   - - - Panhandle Steers   were quoted   at   98   to   - - - Oklahoma City Feeders Steers n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - -   n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - - Heifers n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - -   n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - - Chicago Futures: Live Cattle: Oct steady at 10745   Dec up 65 at 10815 Feeders: Oct down 95 at 11485   Nov down 72 at 11495 Cattle Comment Live cattle futures were steady to sharply higher, while feeders lost ground after grains moved up the limit. Strong grains in the wholesale beef market plus good export movement are keeping live cattle firm. Higher corn values will continue to pressure feeders near term. Hogs Peoria: were $2     lower   at   56   to   Chicago Futures: Oct up 37 at 7622   Dec up 80 at 7612 Sheep St. Paul sheep shorn slaughter lambs   at   n/a   to   - - - Hogs Comment Most hog futures moved back to the positive side after several days of weakness. Strong exports are countering the impact of record production, and the recent slide in corn has tempered earlier plans for sow liquidation. Futures appear to have support around $75, with resistance just below $79. Poultry  Date: August 13, 2008 Eggs New York:  Ex. Lg. 116-120; Lg. 114-118; Med. 78-82; Chicago:  Ex. Lg. 101-109; Lg. 99-107; Med. 66-74; Eastern Region Turkeys Hens: 8-16 lbs. 95-98 Toms: 16-24 lbs. 95-98   Delmarva Broilers U.S. Grade A Trade sentiment was steady. Demand into all channels was fair to moderate with increase interest noted. Supplies of all sizes were at least sufficient to satisfy trade needs. In production areas, live supplies were moderate. ---------------------------------------- HOW TO UNSUBSCRIBE You are receiving this newsletter because you requested that your e-mail address be added to the Arkansas Farm Bureau Market Report. To unsubscribe or change your subscription information, go to http://www.arfb.com/commodity_marketing/email/ ---------------------------------------- QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS? If you have any comments or questions about this e-newsletter please e-mail us at mktrpt@arfb.com Arkansas Farm Bureau 10720 Kanis Road Little Rock, AR 72211 501-224-4400 Copyright 2008 Arkansas Farm Bureau, Inc. All rights reserved Terms of Use