08/12/2008 Farm Bureau Market Report

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Grain & Soybean Date: August 12, 2008 Soybeans Local Elevators: (Aug) EAST AR:  n/a to - - - (NC) Summ. 1106 to 1143 River Elevators: (Aug) MISS: 1144 to 1160 ; AR & White 1131 to 1144 (NC) Summ. 1107 to 1160 Ark. Processor Bids: (Aug) n/a to - - -  (NC) 1136 to 1139 Memphis:  (Aug) 1169 to - - - (NC)  1159 to - - - Riceland Foods:  (Aug) Stuttgart 1139 ; Pendleton 1143 ; West Memphis 1160 Chicago Futures: Sep up 18 at  1207 1/2   Nov  up  18  at  1214   Jan '09 up 18  at  1231 1/2   Mar '09 up 17  at  1245 1/4   Nov '09 up 6  at  1214   Today's Arkansas LDP rate for soybeans is: 0¢ Soybean Comment Soybeans closed higher after getting a positive number from USDA. Yield was lower by a bushel to 40.5 bushels per acre giving a production estimate of 2.97 billion bushels. Net result was ending stocks of 135 million bushels, down 5 from last month, but the same as the 07/08 estimate. This estimate may have ended the slide and signal a near term improvement. Resistance starts at $13.50. For corn, a 6.6 bushel per acre increase in yield to 150 bushels per acre produced a crop of 12.3 billion bushels, up 600 million bushels from the July report. Increased use trimmed the increase in projected ending stocks to 1.13 billion bushels - 300 million above July. The market made a potential key reversal low after starting the day lower. Initial resistance lies between $5.80 and $6.25. Wheat Cash bid for August at Memphis  610 1/4 to 615 1/4; Bids to farmers at Local Elevators 557; River Elevators 544-590; Chicago Futures: Sep down  3 1/2  at  790 1/4    Dec down 3 1/4  at  815 1/4    Mar '09 down  3 1/2  at  839 1/2    May '09 down  3  at  854 1/2    Jul '09 down  3  at  865 3/4    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for wheat is: 0¢ Grain Sorghum Cash bid for August at Memphis  765 to 774; Bids to farmers at River Elevators 650-746; Today's Arkansas LDP rate for sorghum is: 0¢ Corn Cash bid for August at Memphis   479 to 484;   new crop at Memphis   n/a to - - -; Bids to farmers at River Elevators  450 to 474 Chicago Futures: Sep up  11 3/4  at  509    Dec up  11 1/2  at  528 1/2    Mar '09 up  11  at  547 3/4    Dec '09 up  7 1/4  at  571 3/4    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for corn is: 0¢ Grain Comment Wheat traded in a narrow range as the market continues to chop along sideways. The monthly supply/demand report was viewed as neutral for wheat. There were very few changes, and the 35 million bushel decrease in the feed estimate was not surprising considering the size of the corn crop. Last week’s low of $7.49 remains key support. Cotton & Rice  Date: August 12, 2008 Cotton Spot Price, Grade 41 Staple 34: Memphis up 56 at  6253   Greenwood up  56 at 6253 New York Futures: Oct up  58  at  6730    Dec up  72  at  6946    Mar '09 up  56  at  7456    May '09 up  54  at  7620    Jul '09 up  117  at  7800  This week's LDP rate for cotton is  0 cents   The estimate for next week is  0 cents Cotton Comment The cotton estimate was considerably different than anticipated yesterday. No adjustment was made in 07/08 ending stocks, while ’08 production was reduced by 230,000 bales and utilization was increased 500,000 bales. Net result was projected ending stocks of just 4.6 million bales, down 700,000 from the July report. This boosted the market on early trading, but December couldn’t move through resistance just under 72 cents and slipped lower from that point. Inability to move higher on a very bullish report (world numbers were also positive) suggests we may see further pressure to the downside. A close below 68 cents by December would be negative. Rice Long Grain Cash Bid for  Aug 1600/cwt  to  - - -   - - - - - -  to  - - - Chicago Futures: Sep down  23  at  1602    Nov down  23  at  1630    Jan '09 down  24  at  1659    Mar '09 down  26  at  1687    - - -   - - -  at  - - -  Today's Arkansas LDP rate for long grain rice is  0¢ medium grain rice is  0¢ Rice Comment Rice was lower from the beginning as U.S. adjusted 07/08 ending stocks higher while leaving ’08 production virtually unchanged. Increased exports, essentially nullified the additional stocks, putting the 08/09 projected ending stocks at 22.5 million cwt. On the world side, numbers were virtually unchanged. September futures continue to hold above $16. A close below that level would likely see a move toward downside objectives at $15.64 and $15.29. The international market remains unsettled. Cattle & Hogs  Date: August 12, 2008 Cattle As reported by Federal-State Market News, receipts were 1,252 head at sales in Fort Smith and Marshall.  Compared with last week, feeder steers sold $2-4 higher. Feeder heifers sold mostly steady to $2 higher . Steers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 115.01 to - - -   500 to 550 lbs. 112.26 to - - -   600 to 650 lbs. 107.19 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 108.90 to - - - Heifers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 100.04 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 90.75 to - - - Slaughter Cows, Boners 53   to   58 Light Weight n/a to - - - Bulls, Yield Grade   1   1000   to   2100 lbs.   68   to   73, high dressing 78-80 Midwest Steers   n/a   at   - - -   to   - - - Panhandle Steers   n/a   at   - - -   to   - - - Oklahoma City Feeders Steers n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - -   n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - - Heifers n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - -   n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - - Chicago Futures: Live Cattle: Oct up 62 at 10745   Dec up 57 at 10750 Feeders: Oct down 5 at 11580   Nov down 10 at 11567 Cattle Comment Cattle closed mostly higher. The recent erosion of corn and grain values is changing the long term outlook with regard to ’09. A smaller cutback is expected to mean more beef, and that is pressuring distant contracts. At the same time, less culling means less beef near term, which is boosting feeder values. Hogs Peoria: were     steady   at   58   to   61 Chicago Futures: Oct down 135 at 7585   Dec down 142 at 7532 Sheep St. Paul sheep shorn slaughter lambs   at   n/a   to   - - - Hogs Comment October hogs posted sharp losses today, and this could be an indication the market is topping. Record-setting production totals have not affected price, thanks in large part to strong exports. Improvement in the value of the dollar could curtail exports, though. Poultry  Date: August 12, 2008 Eggs New York:  Ex. Lg. 114-118; Lg. 112-116; Med. 76-80; Chicago:  Ex. Lg. 101-109; Lg. 99-107; Med. 66-74; Eastern Region Turkeys Hens: 8-16 lbs. 95-98 Toms: 16-24 lbs. 95-98   Delmarva Broilers U.S. Grade A Trade sentiment was steady. Demand ranged fair to moderate for early week business. Supplies were at least sufficient to satisfy immediate trade needs. In production areas, live supplies were moderate. Weights were mostly desirable. ---------------------------------------- HOW TO UNSUBSCRIBE You are receiving this newsletter because you requested that your e-mail address be added to the Arkansas Farm Bureau Market Report. To unsubscribe or change your subscription information, go to http://www.arfb.com/commodity_marketing/email/ ---------------------------------------- QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS? If you have any comments or questions about this e-newsletter please e-mail us at mktrpt@arfb.com Arkansas Farm Bureau 10720 Kanis Road Little Rock, AR 72211 501-224-4400 Copyright 2008 Arkansas Farm Bureau, Inc. All rights reserved Terms of Use