08/11/2008 Farm Bureau Market Report

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Grain & Soybean Date: August 11, 2008 Soybeans Local Elevators: (Aug) EAST AR:  n/a to - - - (NC) Summ. 1088 to 1125 River Elevators: (Aug) MISS: 1121 to 1142 ; AR & White 1113 to 1119 (NC) Summ. 1089 to 1142 Ark. Processor Bids: (Aug) n/a to - - -  (NC) 1118 to 1121 Memphis:  (Aug) 1151 to - - - (NC)  1141 to - - - Riceland Foods:  (Aug) Stuttgart 1021 ; Pendleton 1071 ; West Memphis 1142 Chicago Futures: Sep up 12 1/2 at  1189 1/2   Nov  up  15 1/2  at  1196   Jan '09 up 15 1/4  at  1213 1/2   Mar '09 up 14 1/4  at  1228 1/4   Nov '09 up 1  at  1208   Today's Arkansas LDP rate for soybeans is: 0¢ Soybean Comment Soybeans closed higher despite pressure from outside markets, including lower crude oil, and a stronger $. Pre-report estimates put the U.S. yield at 41.7 bushels per acre, virtually the same as USDA’s July number. Key number is projected ending stocks which is estimated to be anywhere from 120 to 140 million bushels. That is fairly tight and certainly subject to change if growing conditions aren’t favorable, or if the growing season is short. Corn yields are estimated to be higher, but USDA tends to inch those numbers higher, any stocks number below a billion bushels should be positive. Wheat Cash bid for August at Memphis  613 3/4 to - - -; Bids to farmers at Local Elevators 561; River Elevators 548-594; Chicago Futures: Sep up  28 1/2  at  793    Dec up 28 1/4  at  818 1/2    Mar '09 up  28 1/2  at  843    May '09 up  28 1/4  at  857 1/2    Jul '09 up  25 3/4  at  868 3/4    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for wheat is: 0¢ Grain Sorghum Cash bid for August at Memphis  745 to 754; Bids to farmers at River Elevators 630-709; Today's Arkansas LDP rate for sorghum is: 0¢ Corn Cash bid for August at Memphis   467 1/4 to 472 1/4;   new crop at Memphis   n/a to - - -; Bids to farmers at River Elevators  434 to 458 Chicago Futures: Sep down  1 1/4  at  497 1/4    Dec down  1 1/4  at  517    Mar '09 down  1 1/4  at  536 3/4    Dec '09 down  6  at  564 1/2    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for corn is: 0¢ Grain Comment Wheat posted sharp gains and nearby September charted a bullish day higher. However, the overall trend looks sideways at this point. Last week’s low of 7.49 remains key support. Cotton & Rice  Date: August 11, 2008 Cotton Spot Price, Grade 41 Staple 34: Memphis down 53 at  6197   Greenwood down  53 at 6197 New York Futures: Oct down  35  at  6690    Dec down  27  at  6890    Mar '09 down  19  at  7417    May '09 down  34  at  7566    Jul '09 down  42  at  7683  This week's LDP rate for cotton is  0 cents   The estimate for next week is  0 cents Cotton Comment Cotton was slightly lower again today as the market looks ahead to USDA’s supply demand report. The biggest change is likely to be an upward adjustment in 07/08 ending stocks. Final 07/08 export numbers were well below USDA projections. Other parts of the report are expected to be about the same as last month. However, the ending stocks will likely carryover into 08/09 raising that number to around 5.6 million bales. Given that fundamental news, we could see futures move below current support and toward mid to lower 60 cents range. Rice Long Grain Cash Bid for  Aug 1650/cwt  to  - - -   - - - - - -  to  - - - Chicago Futures: Sep up  29  at  1625    Nov up  28  at  1653    Jan '09 up  27  at  1683    Mar '09 up  26  at  1713    n/a up  - - -  at  - - -  Today's Arkansas LDP rate for long grain rice is  0¢ medium grain rice is  0¢ Rice Comment Rice firmed ahead of tomorrow’s report with September moving back above the $16 level. Initial resistance to a rebound starts around $17, while the next downside support is located around $15.29. Many producers feel USDA overestimated this year’s production potential in the last report and are looking for that number to come down at some point. The international market is continuing to soften with indications Thailand will offer 1 to 2 million metric tonnes of their intervention stocks. Longer term downside should be limited. Cattle & Hogs  Date: August 11, 2008 Cattle As reported by Federal-State Market News, receipts were 2,497 head at sales in Ash Flat, Ola & Springdale.  Compared with last week, feeder steers sold mostly steady to $5 higher, instances $6-7 higher . Steers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 118.78 to - - -   500 to 550 lbs. 114.70 to - - -   600 to 650 lbs. 113.27 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 105.46 to - - - Heifers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 98.44 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 94.41 to - - - Slaughter Cows, Boners 50   to   58.50 Light Weight 40 to 44 Bulls, Yield Grade   1   1000   to   2100 lbs.   64   to   70, high dressing 75-76 Midwest Steers   were $1 lower to $2 higher   at   97   to   100 Panhandle Steers   were $2 lower to $2 higher   at   96   to   100 Oklahoma City Feeders Steers n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - -   n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - - Heifers n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - -   n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - - Chicago Futures: Live Cattle: Oct up 37 at 10682   Dec up 87 at 10692 Feeders: Oct up 45 at 11585   Nov up 12 at 11577 Cattle Comment Cattle closed mostly higher. The recent erosion of corn and grain values is changing the long term outlook with regard to ’09. A smaller cutback is expected to mean more beef, and that is pressuring distant contracts. At the same time, less culling means less beef near term, which is boosting feeder values. Hogs Peoria: were $1     higher   at   57   to   - - - Chicago Futures: Oct down 70 at 7720   Dec up 27 at 7675 Sheep St. Paul sheep shorn slaughter lambs   at   n/a   to   - - - Hogs Comment Hogs were higher with expiring August surpassing $89. A strong surge in pork cutout values provided good support for the market. Export demand remains strong despite the rapidly improving dollar. Poultry  Date: August 11, 2008 Eggs New York:  Ex. Lg. 112-116; Lg. 110-114; Med. 76-80; Chicago:  Ex. Lg. 101-109; Lg. 99-107; Med. 66-74; Eastern Region Turkeys Hens: 8-16 lbs. 95-98 Toms: 16-24 lbs. 95-98   Delmarva Broilers U.S. Grade A Trade sentiment was steady. Demand was fair to moderate with increased interest noted entering the week. Supplies of all sizes were at least sufficient to handle current trade requirements. In production areas, live supplies were moderate at mostly desirable weights. ---------------------------------------- HOW TO UNSUBSCRIBE You are receiving this newsletter because you requested that your e-mail address be added to the Arkansas Farm Bureau Market Report. To unsubscribe or change your subscription information, go to http://www.arfb.com/commodity_marketing/email/ ---------------------------------------- QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS? If you have any comments or questions about this e-newsletter please e-mail us at mktrpt@arfb.com Arkansas Farm Bureau 10720 Kanis Road Little Rock, AR 72211 501-224-4400 Copyright 2008 Arkansas Farm Bureau, Inc. All rights reserved Terms of Use