10/29/2008 Farm Bureau Market Report

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Grain & Soybean Date: October 29, 2008 Soybeans Local Elevators: (Oct) EAST AR:  847 to 876 (NC) Summ. 853 to - - - River Elevators: (Oct) MISS: 832 to 902 ; AR & White 854 to 869 (NC) Summ. 897 to 947 Ark. Processor Bids: (Oct) 873 to 876  (NC) 929 to 930 Memphis:  (Oct) 902 to 902 1/4 (NC)  n/a to - - - Riceland Foods:  (Oct) Stuttgart 876 ; Pendleton 876 ; West Memphis 897 Chicago Futures: Nov up 58 1/2 at  937 1/4   Jan '09  up  59  at  947   Mar '09 up 59 1/2  at  959 1/4   May '09 up 59 3/4  at  969 1/2   Nov '09 up 55 1/2  at  970 1/2   Today's Arkansas LDP rate for soybeans is: 0¢ Soybean Comment Soybeans traded up the limit, before closing just off that level. A strong up move in crude oil and weakness in the dollar prompted the near limit gains. January closed just under key resistance around $9.50. Basis levels continue to improve in the Midwest as farmers remain tight holders and the harvest nears completion. Yesterday’s lower production number was partially offset by a lower export projection. That could be a problem, but for now sales are almost 10% above year ago levels. January needs to close above $9.90 to confirm a harvest low. Corn closed up the limit bolstered by yesterday’s reduced acreage, and production estimate. All grains benefited from the big gains in crude which kept the index funds on the positive side. December closed right on last week’s high and needs to move above $4.60 to confirm a bottom. Wheat Cash bid for October at Memphis  346 1/4 to 421 1/4; Bids to farmers at Local Elevators 358-473; River Elevators 473-508; Chicago Futures: Dec up  47 1/4  at  561 1/4    Mar '09 up 47 1/4  at  581 1/4    May '09 up  47 1/2  at  595    Jul '09 up  47 3/4  at  608 1/2    Sep '09 up  47 3/4  at  626    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for wheat is: 0¢ Grain Sorghum Cash bid for October at Memphis  457 to 501; Bids to farmers at River Elevators n/a; Today's Arkansas LDP rate for sorghum is: 0¢ Corn Cash bid for October at Memphis   370 3/4 to 385 3/4;   new crop at Memphis   404 1/2 to - - -; Bids to farmers at River Elevators  352 to 376 Chicago Futures: Dec up  30  at  420 3/4    Mar '09 up  30  at  438 1/4    May '09 up  30  at  450    Dec '09 up  29 1/4  at  480 1/4    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for corn is: 0¢ Grain Comment Wheat posted big gains today following soybeans. December closed a chart gap, signaling that a bottom has been put in for now. The US hard red winter wheat crop is off to a good start, and wheat-producing nations across the globe continue to increase their production estimates for this year, however, and that will keep a lid on the upside. Cotton & Rice  Date: October 29, 2008 Cotton Spot Price, Grade 41 Staple 34: Memphis up 21 at  4338   Greenwood up  21 at 4338 New York Futures: Dec up  6  at  4673    Mar '09 up  9  at  5070    May '09 up  1  at  5225    Jul '09 down  4  at  5405    Dec '09 up  56  at  5870  This week's LDP rate for cotton is  7.38 cents   The estimate for next week is  10.27 cents Cotton Comment Cotton did it again, traded high earlier and then ended the session mostly lower. Cotton is running counter to the grains, where big gains in crude oil helped boost the market. Cotton is tied more directly to economic fortune or misfortunes, as it is, and the fact clothing purchases can be delayed. Exports now account for about ¾ of U.S. cotton sales and movement will need to be stronger to move the market higher. For now producers should use the loan, or take an LDP which is projected above 10 cents for the upcoming week. Rice Long Grain Cash Bid for  Oct/Nov 1280/cwt  to  - - -   - - - - - -  to  - - - Chicago Futures: Nov up  50  at  1538    Jan '09 up  50  at  1563 1/2    Mar '09 up  50  at  1594 1/2    May '09 up  50  at  1624    - - -   - - -  at  - - -  Today's Arkansas LDP rate for long grain rice is  0¢ medium grain rice is  0¢ Rice Comment Limit gains provided a third consecutive day of higher rice futures. January futures will need to close above $15.75 and then $16.50 to suggest a change in trend direction. U.S. price levels remain at a premium to the Asian offerings. Price levels in both Vietnam and Thailand continue to move lower. Vietnam quotes are around $425 per metric tonne and Thailand is near $600 per tonne. U.S. values are adding pressure to the market as few inquiries are being fielded and mills will have a lot of open time by year’s end. The next major long term chart support is 62% retracement value of $13.12. Cattle & Hogs  Date: October 29, 2008 Cattle As reported by Federal-State Market News, receipts were 1,248 head at sales in Conway & Pocahontas.  Compared with last week, feeder steers sold weak to $5 lower . Steers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 102 to - - -   500 to 550 lbs. 90 to - - -   600 to 650 lbs. 85.50 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 85.50 to - - - Heifers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 86.75 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 75 to - - - Slaughter Cows, Boners 44   to   49 Light Weight 26 to 31 Bulls, Yield Grade   1   1000   to   2100 lbs.   58   to   63.50 Midwest Steers   were quoted   at   91   to   92 Panhandle Steers   were quoted   at   92, few 91   to   - - - Oklahoma City Feeders Steers 500 to 550 lbs. 95 to 105   600 to 650 lbs. 96.50 to 105 Heifers 500 to 550 lbs. 87 to 93.50   600 to 650 lbs. 80 to 86.50 Chicago Futures: Live Cattle: Dec up 212 at 9100   Feb up 220 at 9252 Feeders: Nov up 107 at 9650   Jan up 180 at 9590 Cattle Comment Cattle futures turned lower on renewed strength in crude oil futures and a weaker dollar. December has downtrending resistance near $92. Hogs Peoria: were $.5     higher   at   36   to   36.5 Chicago Futures: Dec down 47 at 5757   Feb down 12 at 6432 Sheep St. Paul sheep shorn slaughter lambs   at   n/a   to   - - - Hogs Comment Hogs didn’t react as positively to today’s economic action as cattle did. The next resistance for December is the small chart gap between $60 and $60.20, but the gap is narrowing quickly between cash and futures prices, so the upside beyond $60 will be limited. Poultry  Date: October 29, 2008 Eggs New York:  Ex. Lg. 124-128; Lg. 122-126; Med. 107-111; Chicago:  Ex. Lg. 113-121; Lg. 111-119; Med. 99-107; Eastern Region Turkeys Hens: 8-16 lbs. 90-98 Toms: 16-24 lbs. 90-95   Delmarva Broilers U.S. Grade A Trade sentiment was about steady. Demand was no better than fair with trading usually limited to regular commitments. Supplies were more than sufficient to satisfy current trade needs. In production areas, live supplies were moderate at mixed, but mostly desirable weights. ---------------------------------------- HOW TO UNSUBSCRIBE You are receiving this newsletter because you requested that your e-mail address be added to the Arkansas Farm Bureau Market Report. To unsubscribe or change your subscription information, go to http://www.arfb.com/commodity_marketing/email/ ---------------------------------------- QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS? If you have any comments or questions about this e-newsletter please e-mail us at mktrpt@arfb.com Arkansas Farm Bureau 10720 Kanis Road Little Rock, AR 72211 501-224-4400 Copyright 2008 Arkansas Farm Bureau, Inc. All rights reserved Terms of Use