10/28/2008 Farm Bureau Market Report

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Grain & Soybean Date: October 28, 2008 Soybeans Local Elevators: (Oct) EAST AR:  789 to 818 (NC) Summ. 795 to - - - River Elevators: (Oct) MISS: 774 to 845 ; AR & White 803 to 818 (NC) Summ. 856 to 891 Ark. Processor Bids: (Oct) 815 to 818  (NC) 870 to 871 Memphis:  (Oct) 843 3/4 to 853 3/4 (NC)  n/a to - - - Riceland Foods:  (Oct) Stuttgart 818 ; Pendleton 818 ; West Memphis 839 Chicago Futures: Nov down 14 1/4 at  878 3/4   Jan '09  down  9 1/2  at  888   Mar '09 down 8 1/4  at  899 3/4   May '09 down 7  at  909 3/4   Nov '09 down 5  at  915   Today's Arkansas LDP rate for soybeans is: 0¢ Soybean Comment Soybeans went from limit up in overnight electronic trade to lower in the regular session, despite a downward revision in planted and harvested acreage. USDA cut the October 10 acreage increase of 2.2 million acres in half; that cut the projected production 45 million bushels. At the same time USDA reduced projected exports another 30 million bushels, putting them 140 million bushels below last year. Currently exports are running almost 10% above year ago levels. The quick turn around suggests the market is not yet focusing on fundamentals. January tested resistance at last week’s high of $9.59 before declining. This area will remain major resistance as the market likely works sideways with support between $8.40 and $8.50. Wheat Cash bid for October at Memphis  299 to 389; Bids to farmers at Local Elevators 311-426; River Elevators 425-441; Chicago Futures: Dec down  15 1/2  at  514    Mar '09 down 15  at  534    May '09 down  14 1/4  at  547 1/2    Jul '09 down  14 3/4  at  560 1/2    Sep '09 down  14 1/2  at  578 1/4    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for wheat is: 0¢ Grain Sorghum Cash bid for October at Memphis  403 to 448; Bids to farmers at River Elevators 370-441; Today's Arkansas LDP rate for sorghum is: 0¢ Corn Cash bid for October at Memphis   350 3/4 to 355 3/4;   new crop at Memphis   375 3/4 to - - -; Bids to farmers at River Elevators  312 to 336 Chicago Futures: Dec up  5 1/2  at  390 3/4    Mar '09 up  6  at  408 1/4    May '09 up  6 1/4  at  420    Dec '09 up  7 3/4  at  451    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for corn is: 0¢ Grain Comment Wheat posted double-digit losses today. New crop July posted a large bearish reversal, indicating that this morning’s rebound attempt has failed. The US hard red winter wheat crop is off to a good start, and wheat-producing nations across the globe continue to increase their production estimates for this year. We will see a dramatic turnaround in the wheat supply. Cotton & Rice  Date: October 28, 2008 Cotton Spot Price, Grade 41 Staple 34: Memphis down 43 at  4317   Greenwood down  43 at 4317 New York Futures: Dec down  69  at  4641    Mar '09 down  60  at  5035    May '09 down  52  at  5206    Jul '09 down  59  at  5384    Dec '09 down  4  at  5814  This week's LDP rate for cotton is  7.38 cents   The estimate for next week is  10.12 cents Cotton Comment Cotton again failed to hold early gains and ended the session lower despite what looks like solid gains on Wall Street. It sounds like a broken record but cotton suffers worse than grains in periods of economic concern such as this. Purchases of clothes can be put off, and that creates weak demand. A stronger dollar also weighs on potential exports and the U.S. industry now counts on 70 to 80% of the cotton going to export. Long term support is between 45 and 46 cents or just below today’s low. Rice Long Grain Cash Bid for  Oct/Nov 1280/cwt  to  - - -   - - - - - -  to  - - - Chicago Futures: Nov up  26  at  1488    Jan '09 up  22  at  1513 1/2    Mar '09 up  21 1/2  at  1544 1/2    May '09 up  21  at  1574    - - -   - - -  at  - - -  Today's Arkansas LDP rate for long grain rice is  0¢ medium grain rice is  0¢ Rice Comment Rice managed to close higher for a second day in a row, however the close was well below the day’s high. January futures will need to close above $15.75 and then $16.50 to suggest a change in trend direction. U.S. price levels remain at a premium to the Asian offerings. Price levels in both Vietnam and Thailand continue to move lower. Vietnam quotes are around $425 per metric tonne and Thailand is near $600 per tonne. U.S. values are adding pressure to the market as few inquiries are being fielded and mills will have a lot of open time by year’s end. The next major long term chart support is 62% retracement value of $13.12. Cattle & Hogs  Date: October 28, 2008 Cattle As reported by Federal-State Market News, receipts were 1,659 head at sales in Fort Smith & Marshall.  Compared with last week, feeder steers sold unevenly, mostly steady to $3 lower . Steers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 115 to - - -   500 to 550 lbs. 102 to - - -   600 to 650 lbs. 92 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 102 to - - - Heifers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 91.50 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 79 to - - - Slaughter Cows, Boners 44   to   49 Light Weight 28 to 32 Bulls, Yield Grade   1   1000   to   2100 lbs.   58   to   63, high dressing 63-67.50 Midwest Steers   n/a   at   - - -   to   - - - Panhandle Steers   n/a   at   - - -   to   - - - Oklahoma City Feeders Steers 500 to 550 lbs. 95 to 105   600 to 650 lbs. 89.75 to 97.60 Heifers 500 to 550 lbs. 81 to 86   600 to 650 lbs. 87 to 89.50 Chicago Futures: Live Cattle: Dec up 10 at 8887   Feb '09 up 15 at 9032 Feeders: Nov down 12 at 9542   Jan '09 down 60 at 9410 Cattle Comment Cattle futures ended mixed with live futures a bit higher and feeders lower. Spillover weakness from stock markets has been the driving factor behind recent declines, as traders worry that a worldwide recession will have a negative impact on demand. Both markets remain in a downtrend. Hogs Peoria: were     steady   at   35.5   to   36 Chicago Futures: Dec down 50 at 5805   Feb '09 down 20 at 6445 Sheep St. Paul sheep shorn slaughter lambs   at   n/a   to   - - - Hogs Comment Hogs were mixed. The next resistance for December is the small chart gap between $60 and $60.20, but the gap is narrowing quickly between cash and futures prices, so the upside beyond $60 will be limited. Poultry  Date: October 28, 2008 Eggs New York:  Ex. Lg. 124-128; Lg. 122-126; Med. 107-111; Chicago:  Ex. Lg. 113-121; Lg. 111-119; Med. 99-107; Eastern Region Turkeys Hens: 8-16 lbs. 90-100 Toms: 16-24 lbs. 90-100   Delmarva Broilers U.S. Grade A Trade sentiment was steady to about steady. Demand was fair to moderate with light trading. Supplies were more than sufficient to satisfy current trade needs. In production areas, live supplies were moderate at mixed, but mostly desirable weights. ---------------------------------------- HOW TO UNSUBSCRIBE You are receiving this newsletter because you requested that your e-mail address be added to the Arkansas Farm Bureau Market Report. To unsubscribe or change your subscription information, go to http://www.arfb.com/commodity_marketing/email/ ---------------------------------------- QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS? If you have any comments or questions about this e-newsletter please e-mail us at mktrpt@arfb.com Arkansas Farm Bureau 10720 Kanis Road Little Rock, AR 72211 501-224-4400 Copyright 2008 Arkansas Farm Bureau, Inc. All rights reserved Terms of Use