10/27/2008 Farm Bureau Market Report

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Grain & Soybean Date: October 27, 2008 Soybeans Local Elevators: (Oct) EAST AR:  803 to 832 (NC) Summ. 809 to - - - River Elevators: (Oct) MISS: 773 to 859 ; AR & White 817 to 832 (NC) Summ. 836 to 900 Ark. Processor Bids: (Oct) 829 to 832  (NC) 880 to 881 Memphis:  (Oct) 863 to - - - (NC)  n/a to - - - Riceland Foods:  (Oct) Stuttgart 831 ; Pendleton 831 ; West Memphis 853 Chicago Futures: Nov up 29 1/4 at  893   Jan '09  up  30 1/2  at  897 1/2   Mar '09 up 33  at  908   May '09 up 32 3/4  at  916 3/4   Nov '09 up 30  at  920   Today's Arkansas LDP rate for soybeans is: 0¢ Soybean Comment Soybeans closed on a strong note after holding even in the overnight trade. Early concerns about further stock losses in major countries impacting grains proved to be unfounded. Strong exports and an improving cash basis suggests good demand despite the strength of the dollar. The dollar has improved versus the euro and that might trim their buying. The dollar is also at its strongest in over 13 years against the Brazilian real. This makes their soybeans more competitive. Technically, November needs to close above $9.40 to suggest further upside movement. Key resistance will be seen at gaps around $9.90 and $10.40. Corn closed higher with concern about this year’s slow harvest becoming a bigger factor. The longer the harvest takes, the bigger impact it will have on final yield and quality. Initial resistance for December corn is last week’s high of $4.20. A gap around $4.50 will also provide a good target. Wheat Cash bid for October at Memphis  324 1/2 to 404 1/2; Bids to farmers at Local Elevators 325-340; River Elevators 340-355; Chicago Futures: Dec up  13 1/4  at  529 1/2    Mar '09 up 14 1/4  at  549    May '09 up  14 1/4  at  561 3/4    Jul '09 up  14 1/2  at  575 1/4    Sep '09 up  15 1/4  at  592 3/4    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for wheat is: 0¢ Grain Sorghum Cash bid for October at Memphis  393 to 447; Bids to farmers at River Elevators 359-430; Today's Arkansas LDP rate for sorghum is: 0¢ Corn Cash bid for October at Memphis   345 1/4 to 351 1/4;   new crop at Memphis   368 1/4 to - - -; Bids to farmers at River Elevators  306 to 326 Chicago Futures: Dec up  12 1/2  at  3845 1/4    Mar '09 up  13 1/2  at  402 1/4    May '09 up  14 1/4  at  413 3/4    Dec '09 up  15 1/2  at  443 1/4    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for corn is: 0¢ Grain Comment Wheat turned higher, but there aren’t any technical indications that the market has confirmed a bottom. The US hard red winter wheat crop is off to a good start, and wheat-producing nations across the globe continue to increase their production estimates for this year. We will see a dramatic turnaround in the wheat supply. Cotton & Rice  Date: October 27, 2008 Cotton Spot Price, Grade 41 Staple 34: Memphis up 137 at  4360   Greenwood up  137 at 4360 New York Futures: Dec up  62  at  4685    Mar '09 up  38  at  5070    May '09 up  23  at  5237    Jul '09 up  18  at  5425    Dec '09 up  29  at  5818  This week's LDP rate for cotton is  7.38 cents   The estimate for next week is  9.92 cents Cotton Comment Cotton made small gains today, but there is little indication that the market has much upside potential. It sounds like a broken record but cotton suffers worse than grains in periods of economic concern such as this. Purchases of clothes can be put off, and that creates weak demand. A stronger dollar also weighs on potential exports and the U.S. industry now counts on 70 to 80% of the cotton going to export. Long term support is between 45 and 46 cents or just below today’s low. Rice Long Grain Cash Bid for  Oct/Nov 1280/cwt  to  - - -   n/a - - -  to  - - - Chicago Futures: Nov down  20 1/2  at  1462    Jan '09 down  23 1/2  at  1491 1/2    Mar '09 down  23  at  1523    May '09 down  21  at  1553    - - -   - - -  at  - - -  Today's Arkansas LDP rate for long grain rice is  0¢ medium grain rice is  0¢ Rice Comment Rice was able to close higher again today, but like last Thursday there is little to suggest the market is ready to make a substantial upturn. U.S. price levels remain at a premium to the Asian offerings. Price levels in both Vietnam and Thailand continue to move lower. Vietnam quotes are around $425 per metric tonne and Thailand is near $600 per tonne. U.S. values are adding pressure to the market as few inquiries are being fielded and mills will have a lot of open time by year’s end. The next major long term chart support is 62% retracement value of $13.12. Cattle & Hogs  Date: October 27, 2008 Cattle As reported by Federal-State Market News, receipts were 3,168 head at sales in Springdale, Ash Flat & Ola.  Compared with last week, feeder steers uneven, mostly $2-4 lower . Steers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 114 to - - -   500 to 550 lbs. 97 to - - -   600 to 650 lbs. 89 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 96.50 to - - - Heifers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 92 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 82.50 to - - - Slaughter Cows, Boners 40   to   48 Light Weight 31 to 37 Bulls, Yield Grade   1   1000   to   2100 lbs.   55   to   61, high dressing $61-72 Midwest Steers   were quoted   at   91   to   - - - Panhandle Steers   were quoted   at   91   to   - - - Oklahoma City Feeders Steers 500 to 550 lbs. 101 to 113   650 to 700 lbs. 83.50 to 94.50 Heifers 500 to 550 lbs. 82 to 88.25   600 to 650 lbs. 77 to 87 Chicago Futures: Live Cattle: Dec up 122 at 8877   Feb '09 up 177 at 9017 Feeders: Nov up 172 at 9555   Jan '09 up 160 at 9470 Cattle Comment Cattle futures recovered a bit today on ideas recent losses were overdone, but December failed to completely close Friday’s gap and therefore still has resistance at $89.85. Spillover weakness from stock markets has been the driving factor behind recent declines, as traders worry that a worldwide recession will have a negative impact on demand. Hogs Peoria: were $1     lower   at   35.5   to   36 Chicago Futures: Dec up 5 at 5855   Feb '09 up 80 at 6465 Sheep St. Paul sheep shorn slaughter lambs   at   n/a   to   - - - Hogs Comment Hogs posted small gains, also on ideas that recent losses were overdone. The next resistance for December is the small chart gap between $60 and $60.20, but the gap is narrowing quickly between cash and futures prices, so the upside beyond $60 will be limited. Poultry  Date: October 27, 2008 Eggs New York:  Ex. Lg. 124-128; Lg. 122-126; Med. 107-111; Chicago:  Ex. Lg. 113-121; Lg. 111-119; Med. 99-107; Eastern Region Turkeys Hens: 8-16 lbs. 93-100 Toms: 16-24 lbs. 93-100   Delmarva Broilers U.S. Grade A Trade sentiment was steady at best. Demand following the weekend was no better than fair with hopes of progress as first of the month approaches. Supplies were more than adequate to satisfy current trade needs. In production areas, live supplies were moderate at mostly desirable weights. ---------------------------------------- HOW TO UNSUBSCRIBE You are receiving this newsletter because you requested that your e-mail address be added to the Arkansas Farm Bureau Market Report. To unsubscribe or change your subscription information, go to http://www.arfb.com/commodity_marketing/email/ ---------------------------------------- QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS? If you have any comments or questions about this e-newsletter please e-mail us at mktrpt@arfb.com Arkansas Farm Bureau 10720 Kanis Road Little Rock, AR 72211 501-224-4400 Copyright 2008 Arkansas Farm Bureau, Inc. All rights reserved Terms of Use