10/20/2008 Farm Bureau Market Report

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Grain & Soybean Date: October 20, 2008 Soybeans Local Elevators: (Oct) EAST AR:  813 to 839 (NC) Summ. 845 to - - - River Elevators: (Oct) MISS: 809 to 880 ; AR & White 823 to 848 (NC) Summ. 874 to 929 Ark. Processor Bids: (Oct) 832 to 833  (NC) 899 to 901 Memphis:  (Oct) 869 to 889 (NC)  n/a to - - - Riceland Foods:  (Oct) Stuttgart 833 ; Pendleton 833 ; West Memphis 868 Chicago Futures: Nov up 35 at  929   Jan '09  up  34  at  940 3/4   Mar '09 up 33 3/4  at  950 1/2   May '09 up 34  at  960   Nov '09 up 36  at  973   Today's Arkansas LDP rate for soybeans is: 0¢ Soybean Comment Soybeans continued last week’s late rebound and ended the day with good gains. The question is whether a low has been registered. Certainly there remains concern about the impact of world economic conditions on demand. It appears the recent decline uncovered fresh demand and perhaps flushed the rest of the lingering index funds. Stronger than expected soybean exports were another positive factor in today’s upturn. The next resistance will be around $9.90, and then about $10.35. Corn also made a solid gain without the benefit of a good export report and could be headed toward the huge gap that begins at $4.40. Wheat Cash bid for October at Memphis  333 1/2 to 433 1/2; Bids to farmers at Local Elevators 360-455; River Elevators 455-490; Chicago Futures: Dec down  2 3/4  at  563 1/2    Mar '09 down 2 3/4  at  593 3/4    May '09 down  3  at  597 1/4    Jul '09 down  4  at  609 3/4    Sep '09 down  4  at  626 1/2    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for wheat is: 0¢ Grain Sorghum Cash bid for October at Memphis  442 to 453; Bids to farmers at River Elevators 400-471; Today's Arkansas LDP rate for sorghum is: 0¢ Corn Cash bid for October at Memphis   353 1/2 to 382 1/2;   new crop at Memphis   402 1/2 to - - -; Bids to farmers at River Elevators  329 to 353 Chicago Futures: Dec up  15 1/2  at  418 1/2    Mar '09 up  15 3/4  at  436 1/4    May '09 up  16 1/4  at  448    Dec '09 up  18 1/2  at  476 1/2    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for corn is: 0¢ Grain Comment Wheat futures ended lower, unable to build any upward momentum on the heels of sharp gains in soybeans and corn. Weekly export inspections of 16 million bushels fell well below expectations of 21-26 million bushels, adding to the negative undertone. This market will have big supplies to work through this year. Cotton & Rice  Date: October 20, 2008 Cotton Spot Price, Grade 41 Staple 34: Memphis down 351 at  4506   Greenwood down  351 at 4506 New York Futures: Dec down  351  at  4906    Mar '09 down  400  at  5239    May '09 down  377  at  5437    Jul '09 down  348  at  5650    Dec '09 down  323  at  6065  This week's LDP rate for cotton is  7.56 cents   The estimate for next week is  8.00 cents Cotton Comment Last week’s late turnaround in cotton appears to have just been a blip on the map. After overnight gains the market reversed to the downside and gave back a substantial portion of last week’s rebound. The reversal suggests a retest of support below 46 cents. Continued concern about the worldwide economic situation suggests upside potential will be limited. That very factor suggests acreage will be down again in ’08 which suggests further tightening of stocks. Rice Long Grain Cash Bid for  n/a - - -  to  - - -   n/a - - -  to  - - - Chicago Futures: Nov down  11  at  1511 1/2    Jan '09 down  12  at  1543    Mar '09 down  13  at  1574 1/2    May '09 down  13  at  1607    - - -   - - -  at  - - -  Today's Arkansas LDP rate for long grain rice is  0¢ medium grain rice is  0¢ Rice Comment While the U.S. crop is expected to be adjusted lower there is continuing concern about the world level. Last spring’s buying frenzy may have resulted in some countries covering long term needs, meaning less demand in the immediate future. It is fairly obvious that Vietnam is willing to lower the price despite a heavy sales volume. Thai offerings are at a big premium and drawing littler interest. The same is true of the U.S. except for paddy movement to Central America and Mexico. Initial resistance on a rebound is recent support around $16.20. The initial retracement objective is $16.98. Cattle & Hogs  Date: October 20, 2008 Cattle As reported by Federal-State Market News, receipts were 2,503 head at sales in Springdale, Ash Flat & Ola.  Compared with last week, feeder steers were uneven, mostly $2-6 higher . Steers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 114.02 to - - -   500 to 550 lbs. 102.41 to - - -   600 to 650 lbs. 89 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 101.17 to - - - Heifers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 93.12 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 86.04 to - - - Slaughter Cows, Boners 42   to   50 Light Weight n/a to - - - Bulls, Yield Grade   1   1000   to   2100 lbs.   54   to   63, high dressing 63.50-68 Midwest Steers   were quoted   at   88   to   92 Panhandle Steers   were $2 lower to $1 higher   at   88   to   91 Oklahoma City Feeders Steers n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - -   n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - - Heifers n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - -   n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - - Chicago Futures: Live Cattle: Dec down 47 at 9207   Feb down 10 at 9315 Feeders: Nov down 5 at 9860   Jan down 10 at 9795 Cattle Comment Cattle closed lower. Fed cattle remain under pressure from uncertain economic times. The beef market remains weak and that is keeping packer margins thin, despite declining feed costs. The market is oversold, though, and due a rebound. Hogs Peoria: were     steady   at   35.5   to   37.5 Chicago Futures: Dec down 5 at 5625   Feb up 45 at 6350 Sheep St. Paul sheep shorn slaughter lambs   at   n/a   to   - - - Hogs Comment Hogs recovered a bit today as the market reacts to oversold conditions. December futures are a huge discount to the cash market which often signals a turn. The next support is near $53. Poultry  Date: October 20, 2008 Eggs New York:  Ex. Lg. 121-125; Lg. 119-123; Med. 107-111; Chicago:  Ex. Lg. 111-119; Lg. 109-117; Med. 99-107; Eastern Region Turkeys Hens: 8-16 lbs. 95-100 Toms: 16-24 lbs. 95-102   Delmarva Broilers U.S. Grade A Trade sentiment was mixed, but mostly steady. Demand following the weekend was light to fair with trading usually limited to regular commitments. Supplies of all sizes were usually sufficient to satisfy trade needs. In production areas, live supplies were moderate at mostly desirable weights. ---------------------------------------- HOW TO UNSUBSCRIBE You are receiving this newsletter because you requested that your e-mail address be added to the Arkansas Farm Bureau Market Report. To unsubscribe or change your subscription information, go to http://www.arfb.com/commodity_marketing/email/ ---------------------------------------- QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS? If you have any comments or questions about this e-newsletter please e-mail us at mktrpt@arfb.com Arkansas Farm Bureau 10720 Kanis Road Little Rock, AR 72211 501-224-4400 Copyright 2008 Arkansas Farm Bureau, Inc. All rights reserved Terms of Use