09/30/2008 Farm Bureau Market Report

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Grain & Soybean Date: September 30, 2008 Soybeans Local Elevators: (Sep) EAST AR:  n/a to - - - (NC) Summ. 955 to 1006 River Elevators: (Sep) MISS: 945 to 997 ; AR & White 964 to 984 (NC) Summ. 945 to 1027 Ark. Processor Bids: (Sep) 1000 to - - -  (NC) 983 to 1003 Memphis:  (Sep) 1005 to - - - (NC)  1000 to 1005 Riceland Foods:  (Sep) Stuttgart 1003 ; Pendleton 1006 ; West Memphis 1027 Chicago Futures: Nov down 49 at  1045   Jan '09  down  48 1/4  at  1062 1/4   Mar '09 down 46 3/4  at  1077 1/2   May '09 down 47 1/4  at  1089 3/4   Nov '09 down 35 1/2  at  1074   Today's Arkansas LDP rate for soybeans is: 0¢ Soybean Comment Soybean prices fell across the board today, with every contract closing below $11. Soybeans like corn was pummeled by the morning stocks report which showed soybean stocks as of Sept 1 at 205 million bu. compared to the trade expectations of around 144 million, that’s more than 40% higher than was expected. Looking out to next fall, corn/soybean ration is very tight at 1:1.98. This is going to make for an interesting winter this year as either soybean prices have to rise to compete with corn or corn prices must decline even further as that ratio is expected to be around 1:2.2. December corn prices fell below $5 today as the Sept 1 stock report showed corn stocks at 1.652 billion bu, well above the average trade estimate of 1.576. In addition to being above trade estimates, today’s stock number was 25% higher than year ago levels. While stocks are still relatively tight, we have more corn than we thought and the market is reacting to that mind set. Wheat Cash bid for September at Memphis  455 to 480; Bids to farmers at Local Elevators 479-564; River Elevators 564-579; Chicago Futures: Dec up  12  at  680    Mar '09 up 12 1/4  at  701 1/4    May '09 up  12 3/4  at  716 1/4    Jul '09 up  13  at  729    Sep '09 up  12 3/4  at  745 3/4    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for wheat is: 0¢ Grain Sorghum Cash bid for September at Memphis  647 to - - -; Bids to farmers at River Elevators 595-675; Today's Arkansas LDP rate for sorghum is: 0¢ Corn Cash bid for September at Memphis   442 1/2 to - - -;   new crop at Memphis   469 1/2 to 474 1/2; Bids to farmers at River Elevators  424 to 452 Chicago Futures: Dec down  25 1/2  at  484 1/2    Mar '09 down  24 1/2  at  506 1/2    May '09 down  24  at  518 1/2    Dec '09 down  17 1/2  at  541 1/4    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for corn is: 0¢ Grain Comment As for wheat, it was one of the few crops to post gains today. Today’s stock report showed wheat stocks tighter than expected. However, gains will likely be limited as global wheat production is forecast to post new records in 2008/09. Cotton & Rice  Date: September 30, 2008 Cotton Spot Price, Grade 41 Staple 34: Memphis down 13 at  5200   Greenwood down  13 at 5200 New York Futures: Oct up  44  at  5550    Dec up  39  at  5777    Mar '09 up  16  at  6214    May '09 down  29  at  6373    Jul '09 down  27  at  6585  This week's LDP rate for cotton is  0 cents   The estimate for next week is  0 cents Cotton Comment Cotton prices continue to feel the effects of the U.S. economic woes. Dec 08 cotton managed to close just above long term support levels of 57 cents; however prices did drop down to near 55 cents (a new contract low) during the course of the day. Dec 09 cotton had a similar day, after dropping down as low as 67.3 cents before coming back to close just under 70 cents. Rice Long Grain Cash Bid for  n/a - - -  to  - - -   n/a - - -  to  - - - Chicago Futures: Nov down  50  at  1889 1/2    Jan '09 down  50  at  1922 1/2    Mar '09 down  50  at  1953 1/2    May '09 down  50  at  1983 1/2    n/a down  - - -  at  - - -  Today's Arkansas LDP rate for long grain rice is  0¢ medium grain rice is  0¢ Rice Comment While other grains and oilseeds were down because of stock reports, rice appears to still be feeling the pressure from the stock market closing the day down the limit. While rice prices were down sharply they remain well above support levels at $18.30, meaning another day of sharp declines is not out of the question given the turmoil that continues on Wall Street. Cattle & Hogs  Date: September 30, 2008 Cattle As reported by Federal-State Market News, receipts were n/a head at sales in n/a.  Compared with last week, feeder steers n/a . Steers:  Medium & Large Frame n/a   - - - to - - - lbs. - - - to - - -   - - - to - - - lbs. - - - to - - -   - - - to - - - lbs. - - - to - - -  Medium & Large Frame n/a   - - - to - - - lbs. - - - to - - - Heifers:  Medium & Large Frame n/a   - - - to lbs. to  Medium & Large Frame n/a   - - - to - - - lbs. - - - to - - - Slaughter Cows, Boners n/a   to   - - - Light Weight - - - to - - - Bulls, Yield Grade   n/a   - - -   to   - - - lbs.   - - -   to   - - - Midwest Steers   were $2-1 lower   at   96   to   98 Panhandle Steers   were $3 lower   at   96   to   - - - Oklahoma City Feeders Steers 500 to 550 lbs. 115 to 124   600 to 650 lbs. 103 to 109.60 Heifers 565 to 600 lbs. 86.50 to 98   600 to 640 lbs. 90 to 99.25 Chicago Futures: Live Cattle: Dec up 50 at 10037   Feb up 62 at 10072 Feeders: Nov up 115 at 10372   Jan up 85 at 10365 Cattle Comment Cattle prices posted modest gains today, as speculators took some of their profits after yesterday’s declines. Other than few speculators, cattle trade was very light as the market waits to see what will happen with congress and wall street. Hogs Peoria: were     steady   at   46   to   46.50 Chicago Futures: Dec down 85 at 6420   Feb down 55 at 7065 Sheep St. Paul sheep shorn slaughter lambs   at   n/a   to   - - - Hogs Comment Hogs were mixed today, weaker corn prices supported hogs as herd liquidations are expected to slow. October futures have support near $65.50. Poultry  Date: September 30, 2008 Eggs New York:  Ex. Lg. 111-115; Lg. 109-113; Med. 97-101; Chicago:  Ex. Lg. 101-109; Lg. 99-107; Med. 88-96; Eastern Region Turkeys Hens: 8-16 lbs. 98-102 Toms: 16-24 lbs. 97-102   Delmarva Broilers U.S. Grade A Trade sentiment was about steady to barely steady. Demand was no better than fair with hopes of progress for first of the month business. Supplies of all sizes were sufficient to satisfy current trade needs. In production areas, live supplies were moderate at mostly desirable weights. ---------------------------------------- HOW TO UNSUBSCRIBE You are receiving this newsletter because you requested that your e-mail address be added to the Arkansas Farm Bureau Market Report. To unsubscribe or change your subscription information, go to http://www.arfb.com/commodity_marketing/email/ ---------------------------------------- QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS? If you have any comments or questions about this e-newsletter please e-mail us at mktrpt@arfb.com Arkansas Farm Bureau 10720 Kanis Road Little Rock, AR 72211 501-224-4400 Copyright 2008 Arkansas Farm Bureau, Inc. All rights reserved Terms of Use