09/15/2008 Farm Bureau Market Report

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Grain & Soybean Date: September 15, 2008 Soybeans Local Elevators: (Sep) EAST AR:  n/a to - - - (NC) Summ. 1071 to 1135 River Elevators: (Sep) MISS: 1099 to 1150 ; AR & White 1112 to 1132 (NC) Summ. 1099 to 1153 Ark. Processor Bids: (Sep) n/a to - - -  (NC) 1117 to 1132 Memphis:  (Sep) 1154 to 1164 (NC)  1134 to 1142 Riceland Foods:  (Sep) Stuttgart 1132 ; Pendleton 1135 ; West Memphis 1153 Chicago Futures: Nov down 23 at  1179   Jan '09  down  23 1/4  at  1194 3/4   Mar '09 down 24  at  1208 1/2   May '09 down 24  at  1216   Nov '09 down 28  at  1159   Today's Arkansas LDP rate for soybeans is: 0¢ Soybean Comment Soybeans posted a low for the session shortly after the open and spent the rest of the session trying to recover. At the end of the day beans were down, but well above the early low. Support around $11.60 continues, as November remains in a narrow consolidation pattern. Friday’s high of $12.20 and today’s low of $11.57 mark the current resistance and support. Upside potential is limited by the ongoing fund liquidation, the weakness in oil, and the strength in the dollar. A smaller projected U.S. crop and projected ending stocks are the positive factors. Corn ended the session slightly lower after wild swings carried the market from sharply lower to higher. USDA’s projected yields of 152.3 bushels per acre and ending stocks of just over 1 billion bushels would seem to set the stage for further reductions in subsequent reports. Perhaps the seasonal low was made when December dipped to $5.05 following the August report. A close above $5.82 would bring a retest of resistance at $6.25. Wheat Cash bid for September at Memphis  507 to 512; Bids to farmers at Local Elevators 522; River Elevators 532-552; Chicago Futures: Dec up  7 3/4  at  727    Mar '09 up 7 1/4  at  742    May '09 up  6 3/4  at  762    Jul '09 up  8 1/2  at  772    Sep '09 up  8  at  787 1/2    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for wheat is: 0¢ Grain Sorghum Cash bid for September at Memphis  789 to 816; Bids to farmers at River Elevators 746-825; Today's Arkansas LDP rate for sorghum is: 0¢ Corn Cash bid for September at Memphis   531 to 532;   new crop at Memphis   532 1/2 to 547 1/2; Bids to farmers at River Elevators  507 to 531 Chicago Futures: Dec down  1 1/4  at  562    Mar '09 down  1 3/4  at  580 1/4    May '09 down  2 1/2  at  592    Dec '09 down  6 1/2  at  592    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for corn is: 0¢ Grain Comment Wheat prices ended the day modestly higher despite losses in both the corn and soybean markets. By some accounts the index funds have "sufficiently" liquidated their wheat holding and the market is now trading based on the technicals of the wheat market instead of other markets. The relative strength index shows the market is severely oversold. Cotton & Rice  Date: September 15, 2008 Cotton Spot Price, Grade 41 Staple 34: Memphis down 370 at  5547   Greenwood down  370 at 5547 New York Futures: Oct down  256  at  5961    Dec down  271  at  6181    Mar '09 down  269  at  6665    May '09 down  237  at  6891    Jul '09 down  252  at  7096  This week's LDP rate for cotton is  0 cents   The estimate for next week is  0 cents Cotton Comment Cotton was victim of the current economic outlook, and the bankruptcy filing of Lehman Brothers and the sale of Merrill Lynch. The potential of this further economic disruptions world wide sent cotton sharply lower. October’s close below 60 cents suggest the next major support at 57 cents is now in play. December moved toward 60 before finding support. This doesn’t bode well for ’09 plantings with December ’09 now trading at 75 cents. If beans and corn remain near current levels, cotton will have to be significantly higher just to maintain ’08 plantings. Rice Long Grain Cash Bid for  n/a - - -  to  - - -   n/a - - -  to  - - - Chicago Futures: Nov down  4 1/2  at  1903 1/2    Jan '09 down  4 1/2  at  1932 1/2    Mar '09 down  3 1/2  at  1962 1/2    May '09 down  3 1/2  at  1989 1/2    - - -   - - -  at  - - -  Today's Arkansas LDP rate for long grain rice is  0¢ medium grain rice is  0¢ Rice Comment Rice declined sharply early but rallied to the positive side before ending the day slightly lower. Last week’s report inched production a little higher while raising projected ending stocks by 3.4 million cwt. Long grain stocks accounted for most of the increase. Rice reversed early gains and closed sharply lower. USDA raised planted acreage, while lowering yield. Overall production rose 2 million cwt. Projected ending stocks were raised 3.4 million cwt, most of that in long grain. On the world side, production was raised in Thailand, Pakistan and India, while the Philippines lowered. Thailand’s projected exports were raised from 9 to 9.5 million metric tonnes. All in all the report was negative, but not a lot. Probably means the market was overbought going into the report. On the world side, November support starts around $18.30. Cattle & Hogs  Date: September 15, 2008 Cattle As reported by Federal-State Market News, receipts were 2,692 head at sales in Ash Flat & Ola.  Compared with last week, feeder steers sold unevenly, mostly firm to $5 lower . Steers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 114.15 to - - -   500 to 550 lbs. 94.65 to - - -   600 to 650 lbs. 92.81 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 104.99 to - - - Heifers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 98.82 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 87.74 to - - - Slaughter Cows, Boners 49   to   55 Light Weight n/a to - - - Bulls, Yield Grade   1   1000   to   2100 lbs.   64.50   to   69, high dressing 69.50-73 Midwest Steers   were $2 lower to $3.50 higher   at   95   to   100.50 Panhandle Steers   were $1-$2.50 higher   at   98   to   99.50 Oklahoma City Feeders Steers n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - -   n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - - Heifers n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - -   n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - - Chicago Futures: Live Cattle: Dec up 155 at 10532   Feb up 20 at 10575 Feeders: Nov down 10 at 10887   Jan down 2 at 10805 Cattle Comment Tightening cattle supplies continue to support cattle prices, which closed the day sharply higher. This tightening should continue to provide strong support in the near term. Hogs Peoria: were     steady   at   45.5   to   46 Chicago Futures: Dec up 125 at 6655   Feb up 25 at 7352 Sheep St. Paul sheep shorn slaughter lambs   at   n/a   to   - - - Hogs Comment Hogs ended the day mixed. A combination of weak export demand and excess supplies continue to pressure hog prices. Poultry  Date: September 15, 2008 Eggs New York:  Ex. Lg. 121-125; Lg. 119-123; Med. 95-99; Chicago:  Ex. Lg. 113-121; Lg. 111-119; Med. 86-94; Eastern Region Turkeys Hens: 8-16 lbs. 99-102 Toms: 16-24 lbs. 99-102   Delmarva Broilers U.S. Grade A Trade sentiment was steady to about steady. Demand following the weekend was fair to moderate and usually limited to regular commitments. Supplies of all sizes were at least adequate to satisfy current trade needs. In productions areas, live supplies were moderate at mostly desirable weights. ---------------------------------------- HOW TO UNSUBSCRIBE You are receiving this newsletter because you requested that your e-mail address be added to the Arkansas Farm Bureau Market Report. To unsubscribe or change your subscription information, go to http://www.arfb.com/commodity_marketing/email/ ---------------------------------------- QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS? If you have any comments or questions about this e-newsletter please e-mail us at mktrpt@arfb.com Arkansas Farm Bureau 10720 Kanis Road Little Rock, AR 72211 501-224-4400 Copyright 2008 Arkansas Farm Bureau, Inc. All rights reserved Terms of Use