09/22/2008 Farm Bureau Market Report

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Grain & Soybean Date: September 22, 2008 Soybeans Local Elevators: (Sept) EAST AR:  - - - to - - - (NC) Summ. 1097 to 1166 River Elevators: (Sept) MISS: 1115 to 1181 ; AR & White 1143 to 1163 (NC) Summ. 1115 to 1184 Ark. Processor Bids: (Sept) 1160 to - - -  (NC) 1143 to 1163 Memphis:  (Sept) 1180 to - - - (NC)  1160 to 1165 Riceland Foods:  (Sept) Stuttgart 1163 ; Pendleton 1166 ; West Memphis 1184 Chicago Futures: Nov up 61 1/2 at  1205   Jan 09  up  62 3/4  at  1222   Mar 09 up 63 1/2  at  1236 1/2   May 09 up 65  at  1247   Nov 09 up 70  at  1194 1/2   Today's Arkansas LDP rate for soybeans is: 0¢ Soybean Comment Soybeans closed sharply higher despite excellent weather and a poor export report. The probability of a government bailout for the ailing financial sector brought traders back to the table. Big gains in crude oil and a weaker dollar provided further support. Technically, November soybeans have trendline resistance around $12.25 to $12.30. A close above that level would confirm the recent move as the harvest low. Long term, the market must decide where acreage will go in 2009. Both soybeans and corn will need greater production next year. Corn wasn’t quite as strong as soybeans with December holding in the recent consolidation zone between $5.25 and $5.75. A close above the late August gap that starts at $5.82 would confirm the market has made a low. Wheat Cash bid for September at Memphis  517 3/4 to 527 3/4; Bids to farmers at Local Elevators 532-552; River Elevators 552-597; Chicago Futures: Dec up  19 3/4  at  737 3/4    Mar 09 up 20  at  757 3/4    May 09 up  20 1/2  at  770 3/4    July 09 up  20 1/4  at  782 1/4    Sept 09 up  21 1/4  at  798 3/4    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for wheat is: 0¢ Grain Sorghum Cash bid for September at Memphis  810 to 819; Bids to farmers at River Elevators 739-816; Today's Arkansas LDP rate for sorghum is: 0¢ Corn Cash bid for September at Memphis   528 1/2 to - - -;   New crop at Memphis   531 1/2 to 546 1/2; Bids to farmers at River Elevators  504 to 528 Chicago Futures: Dec up  16 1/4  at  558 1/2    Mar 09 up  17 1/4  at  576 1/4    May 09 up  17 3/4  at  587 1/4    Dec 09 up  20  at  596    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for corn is: 0¢ Grain Comment Wheat gapped higher today. There is little fundamental justification for a rally with a major recovery of world-wide supplies of wheat in the works. December found resistance at the recent high of $7.57. The market has further resistance at a chart gap to $7.70 and then a gap between $7.77 and $7.98. Support begins at last week’s low of $6.86. Cotton & Rice  Date: September 22, 2008 Cotton Spot Price, Grade 41 Staple 34: Memphis up 187 at  5914   Greenwood up  187 at 5914 New York Futures: Oct up  177  at  6157    Dec up  187  at  6439    Mar 09 up  198  at  6899    May 09 up  191  at  7080    July 09 up  199  at  7280  This week's LDP rate for cotton is  0 cents   The estimate for next week is  0 cents Cotton Comment Cotton started the week where it left off last Friday with another solid move to the upside. Today’s solid move left December in position to test resistance between 65 and 67 cents. For now, the fundamentals suggest the supply situation will tighten significantly by the end of the 08/09 marketing year. At some point cotton will have to move higher or producers and their bankers will encourage a move to soybeans. For now the market has ample supplies with 07/08 stocks approaching 10 million bales. Rice Long Grain Cash Bid for  Sept - - -  to  - - -   Oct - - -  to  - - - Chicago Futures: Nov up  50  at  1971    Jan 09 up  50  at  2001 1/2    Mar 09 up  50  at  2031    May 09 up  50  at  2061    - - - unchanged  - - -  at  - - -  Today's Arkansas LDP rate for long grain rice is  0¢ medium grain rice is  0¢ Rice Comment Rice futures were up 50 cents across the board with November making the third move in the last 3 weeks above the $19.70 mark. This puts the market in position to test resistance at the next level at $20.15. Look for the trend to be sideways to higher with support around $18.30 and resistance at the recent high of $19.69. Recent weather factors indicate harvest will be slow and well behind the norm. Losses are also likely and that should lower this year’s final production number. The international market appears to have evened out, although Vietnam remains somewhat erratic. Cattle & Hogs  Date: September 22, 2008 Cattle As reported by Federal-State Market News, receipts were 1566 head at sales in Springdale and Ola.  Compared with last week, feeder steers sold firm to $3 higher . Steers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 112.94 to - - -   500 to 550 lbs. 104.71 to - - -   600 to 650 lbs. 100.50 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 110.50 to - - - Heifers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   500 to 550 lbs. 99.33 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 93.34 to - - - Slaughter Cows, Boners 48   to   54 Light Weight 38 to 40 Bulls, Yield Grade   1   1000   to   2100 lbs.   60   to   68.50 Midwest Steers   were steady to $1 lower   at   98   to   99 Panhandle Steers   were steady to $2 lower   at   97   to   99 Oklahoma City Feeders Steers 525 to 575 lbs. 108 to 118.25   600 to 625 lbs. 103.75 to 106 Heifers 500 to 575 lbs. 95 to 100   600 to 625 lbs. 92 to 99.50 Chicago Futures: Live Cattle: Dec up 65 at 10390   Feb up 97 at 10415 Feeders: Nov up 117 at 10647   Jan up 122 at 10630 Cattle Comment Friday’s cattle on feed report was bullish for prices, with August placements 3% below the average trade estimate. October live cattle gapped higher but will have tough resistance around $103. Hogs Peoria: were $1 to $1.50     lower   at   43   to   45 Chicago Futures: Dec up 130 at 6735   Feb up 147 at 7260 Sheep St. Paul n/a   at   - - -   to   - - - Hogs Comment Hogs posted gains but ended near the middle of the day’s trading range. Strong cash prices were supportive for front-end contracts. Higher corn prices were supportive for deferreds, sparking ideas of herd liquidation. October futures have support near $65.50. Poultry  Date: September 22, 2008 Eggs New York:  Ex. Lg. 111-115; Lg. 109-113; Med. 95-99; Chicago:  Ex. Lg. 101-109; Lg. 99-107; Med. 86-94; Eastern Region Turkeys Hens: 8-16 lbs. 98-102 Toms: 16-24 lbs. 97-102   Delmarva Broilers U.S. Grade A Trade sentiment was about steady to barely steady. Demand following the weekend was no better than fair with light trading. Supplies of all sizes were at least adequate to satisfy current trade needs. In productions areas, live supplies were moderate at mostly desirable weights. ---------------------------------------- HOW TO UNSUBSCRIBE You are receiving this newsletter because you requested that your e-mail address be added to the Arkansas Farm Bureau Market Report. To unsubscribe or change your subscription information, go to http://www.arfb.com/commodity_marketing/email/ ---------------------------------------- QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS? If you have any comments or questions about this e-newsletter please e-mail us at mktrpt@arfb.com Arkansas Farm Bureau 10720 Kanis Road Little Rock, AR 72211 501-224-4400 Copyright 2008 Arkansas Farm Bureau, Inc. All rights reserved Terms of Use