09/23/2008 Farm Bureau Market Report

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Grain & Soybean Date: September 23, 2008 Soybeans Local Elevators: (Sept) EAST AR:  - - - to - - - (NC) Summ. 1079 to 1148 River Elevators: (Sept) MISS: 1092 to 1163 ; AR & White 1125 to 1145 (NC) Summ. 1092 to 1169 Ark. Processor Bids: (Sept) 1141 to - - -  (NC) 1125 to 1145 Memphis:  (Sept) 1152 to 1162 (NC)  1137 to 1142 Riceland Foods:  (Oct/Nov) Stuttgart 1146 ; Pendleton 1148 ; West Memphis 1169 Chicago Futures: Nov down 18 at  1187   Jan 09  down  18 1/4  at  1203 3/4   Mar 09 down 18 1/4  at  1218 1/4   May 09 down 16 3/4  at  1230 1/4   Nov 09 up 1 1/2  at  1196   Today's Arkansas LDP rate for soybeans is: 0¢ Soybean Comment Soybeans closed lower despite indications from the crop progress that the crop is lagging well behind normal. A rebound in the dollar and a weaker oil price also weighed on the market. There is general concern that current economic conditions and a strengthening dollar will reduce export prospects. A close above trendline resistance and a gap area at $12.30 is needed to confirm a seasonal low. Last week’s low of $11 is current support. Corn was a little higher after yesterday’s progress report put crop maturity at 33% compared to a norm of 63%. Trading remains in a consolidation phase between $5.25 and $5.75. A close above the late August gap at $5.82 would confirm the market has made a low. Wheat Cash bid for September at Memphis  530 1/2 to 535 1/2; Bids to farmers at Local Elevators 546-591; River Elevators 591-621; Chicago Futures: Dec up  12 3/4  at  750 1/2    Mar 09 up 12 1/2  at  770 1/4    May 09 up  12 3/4  at  783 1/2    July 09 up  13 3/4  at  796    Sept 09 up  13 3/4  at  812 1/2    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for wheat is: 0¢ Grain Sorghum Cash bid for September at Memphis  733 to 813; Bids to farmers at River Elevators 743-821; Today's Arkansas LDP rate for sorghum is: 0¢ Corn Cash bid for September at Memphis   525 1/4 to 530 1/4;   New crop at Memphis   534 3/4 to 549 3/4; Bids to farmers at River Elevators  506 to 530 Chicago Futures: Dec up  1 3/4  at  560 1/4    Mar 09 up  1 3/4  at  578    May 09 up  2  at  589 1/4    Dec 09 up  2 3/4  at  598 3/4    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for corn is: 0¢ Grain Comment Wheat ended higher again today, but December stopped short at resistance at $7.57 again today. There is little fundamental justification for a rally with a major recovery of world-wide supplies of wheat in the works. The market has further resistance at a chart gap to $7.70 and then a gap between $7.77 and $7.98. Support begins at last week’s low of $6.86. Cotton & Rice  Date: September 23, 2008 Cotton Spot Price, Grade 41 Staple 34: Memphis down 209 at  5705   Greenwood down  209 at 5705 New York Futures: Oct down  223  at  5934    Dec down  209  at  6230    Mar 09 down  226  at  6673    May 09 down  209  at  6871    July 09 down  215  at  7065  This week's LDP rate for cotton is  0 cents   The estimate for next week is  0 cents Cotton Comment Cotton could not sustain the three day rally that moved December above 64 cents and closed sharply lower. A stronger dollar and the current economic situation are continuing to limit upside potential. For now, the fundamentals suggest the supply situation will tighten significantly by the end of the 08/09 marketing year. At some point cotton will have to move higher or producers and their bankers will encourage a move to soybeans. For now the market has ample supplies with 07/08 stocks approaching 10 million bales. Rice Long Grain Cash Bid for  Sept - - -  to  - - -   Oct - - -  to  - - - Chicago Futures: Nov up  33  at  2004    Jan 09 up  33 1/2  at  2035    Mar 09 up  34  at  2065    May 09 up  33 1/2  at  2094 1/2    - - - unchanged  - - -  at  - - -  Today's Arkansas LDP rate for long grain rice is  0¢ medium grain rice is  0¢ Rice Comment Rice futures continued to move higher with November moving about $20 and in position to test resistance at the next level at $20.15. Look for the trend to be sideways to higher with support around $18.30. Recent weather factors indicate harvest will be slow and well behind the norm. Losses are also likely and that should lower this year’s final production number. The international market appears to have evened out, although Vietnam remains somewhat erratic. Cattle & Hogs  Date: September 23, 2008 Cattle As reported by Federal-State Market News, receipts were 1560 head at sales in Fort Smith and Marshall.  Compared with last week, feeder steers under 450 lbs. $1 to $3 lower, over 450 lbs. $5 to $8 lower. Feeder heifers $3 to $5 lower . Steers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 110.08 to - - -   500 to 550 lbs. 98.19 to - - -   600 to 650 lbs. 96.14 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 94.12 to - - - Heifers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   500 to 550 lbs. 91.44 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 85.27 to - - - Slaughter Cows, Boners 49   to   55 Light Weight n/a to - - - Bulls, Yield Grade   1   1000   to   2100 lbs.   64   to   71.25 Midwest Steers   were $1-$2 lower   at   97   to   - - - Panhandle Steers   were steady to $2 lower   at   97   to   - - - Oklahoma City Feeders Steers 500 to 550 lbs. 114 to 123.75   550 to 600 lbs. 110 to 117 Heifers 500 to 550 lbs. 105 to 110.50   550 to 600 lbs. 102 to 109.75 Chicago Futures: Live Cattle: Dec down 45 at 10345   Feb down 47 at 10367 Feeders: Nov down 52 at 10595   Jan down 45 at 10585 Cattle Comment Cattle futures turned lower again on economic worries and renewed strength in the dollar. The latter will hurt our export potential. October live cattle have tough resistance around $103. Hogs Peoria: were $1 lower to $1.5     higher   at   44   to   44.5 Chicago Futures: Dec down 105 at 6630   Feb down 72 at 7187 Sheep St. Paul n/a   at   - - -   to   - - - Hogs Comment Hogs were lower, also on concerns about the strength of the economy and the stronger dollar and its potential impact on exports. October futures have support near $65.50. Poultry  Date: September 23, 2008 Eggs New York:  Ex. Lg. 111-115; Lg. 109-113; Med. 95-99; Chicago:  Ex. Lg. 101-109; Lg. 99-107; Med. 86-94; Eastern Region Turkeys Hens: 8-16 lbs. 98-102 Toms: 16-24 lbs. 97-102   Delmarva Broilers U.S. Grade A Trade sentiment was barely steady to weak. Demand for early week business was light to fair with trading confined to regular commitments. Supplies of all sizes were fully adequate to ample for light trade needs. In production areas, live supplies were moderate. Weights were mostly desirable. ---------------------------------------- HOW TO UNSUBSCRIBE You are receiving this newsletter because you requested that your e-mail address be added to the Arkansas Farm Bureau Market Report. To unsubscribe or change your subscription information, go to http://www.arfb.com/commodity_marketing/email/ ---------------------------------------- QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS? If you have any comments or questions about this e-newsletter please e-mail us at mktrpt@arfb.com Arkansas Farm Bureau 10720 Kanis Road Little Rock, AR 72211 501-224-4400 Copyright 2008 Arkansas Farm Bureau, Inc. All rights reserved Terms of Use