04/18/2008 Farm Bureau Market Report

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Grain & Soybean Date: April 18, 2008 Soybeans Local Elevators: (Apr) EAST AR:  1294 to 1317 (NC) Summ. 1173 to 1200 River Elevators: (Apr) MISS: 1279 to 1338 ; AR & White 1306 to 1314 (NC) Summ. 1179 to 1210 Ark. Processor Bids: (Apr) 1300 to 1310  (NC) 1198 to - - - Memphis:  (Apr) 1341 1/2 to 1343 1/2 (NC)  1211 to - - - Riceland Foods:  (Apr/May) Stuttgart 1310 ; Pendleton 1341 ; West Memphis 1338 Chicago Futures: May up 11 at  1361 1/2   Jul  up  10 1/2  at  1377   Aug up 11  at  1367   Nov up 2 3/4  at  1281   Nov '09 up 3 1/2  at  1251   Today's Arkansas LDP rate for soybeans is: 0¢ Soybean Comment For the second day in a row, soybeans reversed big declines to close slightly higher. The market is reluctant to go significantly lower with the long range forecasts suggesting significant rainfall for next week. Soybeans have been shadowing corn, which could be impacted more by next week’s forecast. Potential corn yields will begin to drop as planting is delayed, something that the market can’t afford to see happen. While beans have cut losses short, the last two days there appears to be significant resistance around the $13 level. Wheat Cash bid for new crop at Memphis  758 to - - -; Bids to farmers at Local Elevators 717-745; River Elevators 710-758; Chicago Futures: May down  43  at  870    Jul down 43  at  885    Sep down  42 3/4  at  899 1/2    Dec down  39  at  918    Jul '09 down  39  at  913    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for wheat is: 0¢ Grain Sorghum Cash bid for April at Memphis  999 to 1009; Bids to farmers at River Elevators 560-575; Today's Arkansas LDP rate for sorghum is: 0¢ Corn Cash bid for April at Memphis   579 1/2 to 584 1/2;   new crop at Memphis   576 1/4 to - - -; Bids to farmers at River Elevators  560 to 575 Chicago Futures: May down  4  at  599 1/2    Jul down  4  at  613    Sep down  3 1/4  at  621 1/4    Dec down  3 1/4  at  622 3/4    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for corn is: 0¢ Grain Comment The market hammered another nail in the coffin today as July wheat fell below support at $9. The market had been consolidating above that level, and today’s close is further evidence that a major top has been put in. July now has a downside objective near $8.40. Just how much downside risk this market has remains to be seen, however, since the world is recovering from the tightest stocks situation on record. Cotton & Rice  Date: April 18, 2008 Cotton Spot Price, Grade 41 Staple 34: Memphis down 68 at  6510   Greenwood down  68 at 6510 New York Futures: May down  96  at  7079    Jul down  76  at  7452    Dec down  61  at  8270    Mar '09 down  16  at  8700    May '09 down  30  at  8796  This week's LDP rate for cotton is  0 cents   The estimate for next week is  0 cents Cotton Comment Cotton trimmed big declines but remained slightly lower at the close. Fundamentals remain negative with U.S. projected stocks of 9.7 million bales. While the market may need to entice acres to cotton in ’09 there appears to be little need to do that in ’08. So, for now it looks like outside interest, primarily index funds, will be the major moving force. From a technical standpoint yesterday’s high of 89.49 cents should be stiff resistance, while the recent low of 77 cents should be strong support. Look for cotton to move sideways between these levels. Rice Long Grain Cash Bid for  Apr/May 1850/cwt  to  - - -   - - - - - -  to  - - - Chicago Futures: May up  41  at  2371    Jul up  41 1/2  at  2407    Sep up  8  at  2180    Nov up  1  at  2170    - - - up  - - -  at  - - -  Today's Arkansas LDP rate for long grain rice is  0¢ medium grain rice is  0¢ Rice Comment Rice was all over the board with big gains again registered in the old crop contracts. New crop contracts sold off late but managed to hold slight gains at the close. The fundamental picture is unchanged with tight U.S. and world stocks providing underlying support. Hoarding is being seen in some countries and Thai traders are reluctant to offer rice on the market. Other providers, including Thai and Vietnam, effectively have export bans. Vietnam has oversold existing supplies while India has banned non-basmati sales and exports put a high minimum export price on basmati. Rice mills in Texas and Louisiana will need to purchase rice to bridge the gap between old and new crop. Futures show no sign of topping, however it could happen at any time. Current futures offer significant profit potential, however producers may have to take on their own risk management. Selling on the futures may be the only way to take advantage of this market. That could mean significant exposure to margin calls if the market continues higher. Cattle & Hogs  Date: April 18, 2008 Cattle As reported by Federal-State Market News, receipts were 8,685 head at sales in Arkansas this week.  Compared with last week, feeder steers sold steady to $2 lower, heifers steady to $2 higher . Steers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 114.43 to - - -   500 to 550 lbs. 109.40 to - - -   600 to 650 lbs. 92.88 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 107 to - - - Heifers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 101.85 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 95.24 to - - - Slaughter Cows, Boners 46   to   52 Light Weight 35 to 42 Bulls, Yield Grade   1   1000   to   2100 lbs.   58   to   65, high dressing 65-74.50 Midwest Steers   were $5-4 higher   at   90   to   - - - Panhandle Steers   were $5-4 higher   at   90   to   - - - Oklahoma City Feeders Steers 500 to 550 lbs. 110 to 129   600 to 650 lbs. 102.50 to 113.50 Heifers 500 to 550 lbs. 94 to 108.50   600 to 650 lbs. 88 to 103 Chicago Futures: Live Cattle: Jun down 32 at 9232   Aug down 25 at 9805 Feeders: May down 30 at 10572   Aug down 12 at 10852 Cattle Comment June cattle retraced part of yesterday’s gains, but did find support at yesterday’s low of $92.15. Expectations for higher cash trade were supportive, but gains were limited by futures’ premium to cash. Hogs Peoria: were $2     higher   at   37.5   to   38 Chicago Futures: Jun up 140 at 7435   Oct up 32 at 7390 Sheep St. Paul sheep shorn slaughter lambs   at   n/a   to   - - - Hogs Comment June hogs did not follow through on yesterday’s bearish key reversal, ended the day higher. Strong export demand and ideas that supplies will tighten due to seasonal factors were supportive. Poultry  Date: April 18, 2008 Eggs New York:  Ex. Lg. 116-120; Lg. 114-118; Med. 101-105; Chicago:  Ex. Lg. 112-120; Lg. 110-118; Med. 98-106; Eastern Region Turkeys Hens: 8-16 lbs. 85-87 Toms: 16-24 lbs. 85-87   Delmarva Broilers U.S. Grade A Trade sentiment was mostly steady. Supplies of all sizes were usually sufficient to satisfy trade needs. In production areas, live supplies were moderate at mixed, but mostly desirable weights. ---------------------------------------- HOW TO UNSUBSCRIBE You are receiving this newsletter because you requested that your e-mail address be added to the Arkansas Farm Bureau Market Report. To unsubscribe or change your subscription information, go to http://www.arfb.com/commodity_marketing/email/ ---------------------------------------- QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS? If you have any comments or questions about this e-newsletter please e-mail us at mktrpt@arfb.com Arkansas Farm Bureau 10720 Kanis Road Little Rock, AR 72211 501-224-4400 Copyright 2008 Arkansas Farm Bureau, Inc. All rights reserved Terms of Use