04/10/2008 Farm Bureau Market Report

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Grain & Soybean Date: April 10, 2008 Soybeans Local Elevators: (Apr) EAST AR:  1288 to 1311 (NC) Summ. 1151 to 1190 River Elevators: (Apr) MISS: 1232 to 1286 ; AR & White 1302 to - - - (NC) Summ. 1169 to 1198 Ark. Processor Bids: (Apr) 1285 to 1304  (NC) 1188 to - - - Memphis:  (Apr) 1333 to 1341 (NC)  1201 to 1206 Riceland Foods:  (Apr) Stuttgart 1304 ; Pendleton 1311 ; West Memphis 1332 Chicago Futures: May up 43 at  1356   Jul  up  42 3/4  at  1372 3/4   Aug up 40  at  1360   Nov up 27  at  1271   Nov '09 up 21  at  1226   Today's Arkansas LDP rate for soybeans is: 0¢ Soybean Comment Soybeans were the upside leader with buying interest driven by ideas that $12 beans are undervalued when compared with $6 corn. The monthly supply/demand report showed slight increases in domestic crush and exports, but this was more than offset by a 75 million bushel reduction in the residual category. Net result was a 20 million bushels increase, up to 160 million bushels, in projected ending stocks. This was less than was anticipated after the quarterly stocks report showed more beans than expected. The USDA export report provided a bullish surprise for the market today, showing total sales of 23.7 million bushels. Clearly the situation in Argentina is having an impact on demand for U.S beans. Resistance for November begins at today’s high of $12.90, with additional resistance at $13. Wheat Cash bid for new crop at Memphis  806 1/4 to 811 1/4; Bids to farmers at Local Elevators 768-796; River Elevators 751-809; Chicago Futures: May down  11  at  923    Jul down 10 1/2  at  936 1/4    Sep down  10 3/4  at  949 3/4    Dec down  10 3/4  at  963 1/4    Jul '09 down  13  at  940    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for wheat is: 0¢ Grain Sorghum Cash bid for April at Memphis  990 to 999; Bids to farmers at River Elevators 931-940; Today's Arkansas LDP rate for sorghum is: 0¢ Corn Cash bid for April at Memphis   584 1/4 to - - -;   new crop at Memphis   569 1/4 to - - -; Bids to farmers at River Elevators  n/a to - - - Chicago Futures: May down  10 3/4  at  594 1/4    Jul down  10 1/2  at  607 1/2    Sep down  9  at  614 1/4    Dec down  8 3/4  at  611 1/4    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for corn is: 0¢ Grain Comment Wheat posted double digit losses, but with the current expanded limits, the trading range looks quite narrow in comparison. The weekly export report showed total sales of 28.1 million bushels, but the market was instead watching the weather. Ideas today are that rains in the Southern Plains will improve the hard red winter wheat crop, and that is reflected in the fact that Kansas City was actually the downside leader today. July has support at the recent low of $9.05, and a close below that level will suggest a move toward support between $6.80 and $8.50. Corn futures were down despite the current weather conditions causing planting delays. Forecasts call for dry weather next week throughout most of the corn belt, however, and traders are apparently looking ahead. Yesterday’s high of $6.28 ½ for December becomes initial resistance. Cotton & Rice  Date: April 10, 2008 Cotton Spot Price, Grade 41 Staple 34: Memphis up 80 at  6765   Greenwood up  80 at 6765 New York Futures: May up  89  at  7474    Jul up  88  at  7812    Dec up  58  at  8511    Mar '09 up  63  at  6804    May '09 up  114  at  8945  This week's LDP rate for cotton is  0 cents   The estimate for next week is  0 cents Cotton Comment Cotton continues to benefit from carryover strength from the grain markets. The USDA supply/demand report was actually bearish for cotton. Production for ’07 was raised 370,000 bales to 19.4 million bales. This was partially offset by a 100,000 bale increase in domestic use. The net result was an increase of 300,000 bales to 9.7 million bales in projected ending stocks. Futures registered strong across the board gains and December is in position to make a run at recent resistance at 88.5 cents. This could prove to be a difficult area as the market attempts to go higher. Support remains the recent low around 77 cents. Rice Long Grain Cash Bid for  Apr/May 1756/cwt  to  - - -   - - - - - -  to  - - - Chicago Futures: May up  39  at  2109    Jul up  45 1/2  at  2144    Sep up  22  at  1992    Nov up  28  at  1988    n/a up  - - -  at  - - -  Today's Arkansas LDP rate for long grain rice is  0¢ medium grain rice is  0¢ Rice Comment Rice was higher again today, but so far Tuesday’s highs remain as resistance. USDA reports were little changed from last month with slight shifts noted in the world numbers. Overall demand remains exceptionally strong for limited supplies. Only the U.S. and Thailand appear to have marketable export supplies on hand. USDA reduced projected exports for Vietnam from 5 million metric tonnes to 4. They have oversold available supplies and movement as they await an equilibrium in the market. Nominal bids have continued to rise and apparently exceed $800 per tonne. With this type of backdrop Tuesday’s key reversal high in old crop contracts may prove to be a false topping sign. New crop contracts posted a daily reversal, but not a key reversal top and appear to still have upside potential. Cattle & Hogs  Date: April 10, 2008 Cattle As reported by Federal-State Market News, receipts were 1,930 head at sales in Charlotte, Ratcliff & Green Forest.  Compared with last week, feeder steers sold $1-5 lower . Steers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 113 to 120   500 to 550 lbs. 103 to 116   600 to 650 lbs. 94.50 to 105.50  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 105 to 115 Heifers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 90 to 107.50  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 88 to 100 Slaughter Cows, Boners 45   to   50 Light Weight 34 to 40 Bulls, Yield Grade   1-2   1000   to   2100 lbs.   55   to   62.50, high dressing 63-71.50 Midwest Steers   were quoted   at   84   to   - - - Panhandle Steers   remained   at   84   to   - - - Oklahoma City Feeders Steers n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - -   n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - - Heifers n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - -   n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - - Chicago Futures: Live Cattle: Apr up 170 at 8847   Jun up 205 at 8980 Feeders: May up 152 at 10235   Aug up 115 at 10570 Cattle Comment Cattle futures were sharply higher, erasing yesterday’s big losses. The product market is finally starting to realize the seasonal bump that the market has been expecting. June moved above trendline resistance today, and are now testing resistance at the recent high of $89.87 ½. Hogs Peoria: were     steady   at   31.5   to   32 Chicago Futures: Apr down 25 at 5917   Jun down 40 at 7015 Sheep St. Paul sheep shorn slaughter lambs   at   n/a   to   - - - Hogs Comment Hogs were lower again today with prices under pressure from burdensome hog supplies and futures’ premium to cash prices. Nearby June has clearly broken out of the long-term downtrend. However, the market looks like it will finish filling in the chart gap between $69.60 and $70.25. Poultry  Date: April 10, 2008 Eggs New York:  Ex. Lg. 123-127; Lg. 121-125; Med. 108-112; Chicago:  Ex. Lg. 124-132; Lg. 122-130; Med. 109-117; Eastern Region Turkeys Hens: 8-16 lbs. 84-86 Toms: 16-24 lbs. 84-86   Delmarva Broilers U.S. Grade A Trade sentiment was mostly steady. Supplies of all sizes were usually sufficient to satisfy trade needs. In production areas, live supplies were moderate at desirable to slightly heavier weights. ---------------------------------------- HOW TO UNSUBSCRIBE You are receiving this newsletter because you requested that your e-mail address be added to the Arkansas Farm Bureau Market Report. To unsubscribe or change your subscription information, go to http://www.arfb.com/commodity_marketing/email/ ---------------------------------------- QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS? If you have any comments or questions about this e-newsletter please e-mail us at mktrpt@arfb.com Arkansas Farm Bureau 10720 Kanis Road Little Rock, AR 72211 501-224-4400 Copyright 2008 Arkansas Farm Bureau, Inc. All rights reserved Terms of Use