03/20/2008 Farm Bureau Market Report

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Grain & Soybean Date: March 20, 2008 The Farm Bureau Center will be closed on Friday, March 21, 2008 in observance of the holiday. The next market report will be available on Monday, March 24, 2008. We wish you all a safe and Happy Easter. Soybeans Local Elevators: (Mar) EAST AR:  1120 to 1142 (NC) Summ. 1020 to 1059 River Elevators: (Mar) MISS: 1110 to 1164 ; AR & White 1132 to - - - (NC) Summ. 1038 to 1067 Ark. Processor Bids: (Mar) 1132 to 1136  (NC) 1052 to 1057 Memphis:  (Mar) 1172 to - - - (NC)  475 to 478 Riceland Foods:  (NC) Stuttgart 1136 ; Pendleton 1142 ; West Memphis 1165 Chicago Futures: May down 50 at  1207   Jul  down  50  at  1222   Aug down 50  at  1216   Nov down 50  at  1140   Nov '09 down 50  at  1080   Today's Arkansas LDP rate for soybeans is: 0¢ Soybean Comment Soybeans continued the sharp downturn despite a bullish export report. November futures gapped below the January low and major trendline support. The next support is also the 62% retracement objective of $10.70. This is also the downside objective of the bear flag formation that was completed with Monday’s decline. Prospects of a big U.S. acreage in ’08 and a good South American crop are contributing to the downturn. Soybeans have made a major top and without a significant weather event aren’t likely to revisit contract highs anytime soon. ON the other hand corn may rebound and make another good move if acreage intentions approach the low end (86-88 million acres) of recent estimates. Wheat Cash bid for new crop at Memphis  818 1/2 to 821 1/2; Bids to farmers at Local Elevators 787-804; River Elevators 784-807; Chicago Futures: May down  86 1/2  at  987 1/2    Jul down 61 1/2  at  986 1/2    Sep down  71  at  984    Dec down  70  at  994    Jul '09 down  30 1/2  at  937 1/2    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for wheat is: 0¢ Grain Sorghum Cash bid for March at Memphis  876 to 879; Bids to farmers at River Elevators 770-832; Today's Arkansas LDP rate for sorghum is: 0¢ Corn Cash bid for March at Memphis   493 1/2 to 503 1/2;   new crop at Memphis   475 to 478; Bids to farmers at River Elevators  476 to 491 Chicago Futures: May down  19 3/4  at  507 1/2    Jul down  20  at  519 1/4    Sep down  18 1/2  at  523    Dec down  20  at  521 1/4    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for corn is: 0¢ Grain Comment Wheat futures were sharply lower again today. There really isn’t any fundamental news to justify this price break, but export sales were disappointing this week. The supply situation remains tight, but this year’s crop is expected to be significantly larger. The index funds have started liquidating long positions, and that is taking its toll on many of the grain markets. The market has completed a 38% retracement of this winter’s gains, with the 50% level of $9.23 the next likely target. Cotton & Rice  Date: March 20, 2008 Cotton Spot Price, Grade 41 Staple 34: Memphis down 100 at  6402   Greenwood down  100 at 6402 New York Futures: May down  27  at  7175    Jul up  7  at  7430    Dec up  8  at  7942    Mar '09 down  19  at  8182    May '09 down  116  at  8175  This week's LDP rate for cotton is  0 cents   The estimate for next week is  0 cents Cotton Comment Cotton was all over the board with December registering almost a 6 cents trading range. Overnight limit declines gave way to big gains. But the cotton session ended slightly lower suggesting that the market may be ready to settle down and consolidate around or perhaps above today’s lows. Overall fundamentals remain bearish, but we may near an equilibrium. Dry conditions in Texas are prompting some acreage moving back to cotton. These discussions won’t be reflected in the March 31 planting intentions. Survey information for that report was, as of March 1. Overall fundamentals for cotton are negative with U.S. ending stocks projected at 9.4 million bales. That reflects reduced export needs for both China and Turkey. This larger carryover figure buffers prospects of a smaller planted acreage in ‘08. Rice Long Grain Cash Bid for  Mar 1535/cwt  to  - - -   Apr/May 1555/cwt  to  - - - Chicago Futures: May up  1  at  1803 1/2    Jul unchanged    at  1830    Sep up  30  at  1665    Nov up  30  at  1670    n/a down  - - -  at  - - -  Today's Arkansas LDP rate for long grain rice is  0¢ medium grain rice is  0¢ Rice Comment Rice bowed up and held its ground while beans, corn and wheat endured big losses today. September rice held above Monday’s low and made a solid rebound in the distant contracts. Underlying fundamentals for rice are still very good. U.S. export movement is good and milled price levels are finally catching up with the cash market. Even a pass by the Philippines on a GSM 102 tender didn’t phase the market. A very similar situation is being seen in Thailand where exporters are withdrawing from the market to see where things are headed. Very reminiscent of the recent move in wheat. While everything looks rosy we will need to see the market move above the recent September contract high of $16.92. Be aware that what goes up will come down. Take advantage of good profit opportunities while they are available. Cattle & Hogs  Date: March 20, 2008 Cattle As reported by Federal-State Market News, receipts were 1,033 head at sales in Charlotte, Ratcliff & Green Forest.  Compared with last week, feeder steers sold $4-7 lower, instances $10 lower . Steers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 110 to 114   500 to 550 lbs. 95 to 105   600 to 650 lbs. 90 to 100  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 102 to 112 Heifers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 90.50 to 100  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 86 to 96 Slaughter Cows, Boners 45   to   52 Light Weight 30 to 37.50 Bulls, Yield Grade   1-2   1000   to   2100 lbs.   58   to   65, high dressing 66.50 Midwest Steers   were steady to $1 higher   at   88   to   89 Panhandle Steers   were steady to $1 higher   at   88   to   89 Oklahoma City Feeders Steers n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - -   n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - - Heifers n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - -   n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - - Chicago Futures: Live Cattle: Apr up 105 at 9067   Jun up 102 at 9097 Feeders: May up 240 at 10735   Aug up 197 at 11080 Cattle Comment Cattle futures were mostly higher today on ideas that beef demand will strengthen after Easter. The market is cautiously optimistic, however, in the face of a weakening economy. April has resistance at this week’s high of $91.40. Hogs Peoria: were     steady   at   27   to   29 Chicago Futures: Apr up 137 at 5632   Jun up 95 at 7207 Sheep St. Paul sheep shorn slaughter lambs   at   n/a   to   - - - Hogs Comment April hogs charted a bullish reversal today. The upside appears to be limited, however, as the fundamental situation is unchanged. The USDA is expected to report a further build-up of frozen stocks in this week’s report. Weekly kills have been running significantly ahead of last year’s pace and average weights are higher. Poultry  Date: March 20, 2008 Eggs New York:  Ex. Lg. 163-167; Lg. 161-165; Med. 138-142; Chicago:  Ex. Lg. 154-162; Lg. 152-160; Med. 133-141; Eastern Region Turkeys Hens: 8-16 lbs. 82-84 Toms: 16-24 lbs. 81-84   Delmarva Broilers U.S. Grade A Trade sentiment was about steady to weak. Pre-holiday demand was seasonally slow to fair and usually limited to regular commitments. Supplies of all sizes were fully adequate to ample for trade needs. In production areas, live supplies were moderate at mixed, but mostly desirable weights. ---------------------------------------- HOW TO UNSUBSCRIBE You are receiving this newsletter because you requested that your e-mail address be added to the Arkansas Farm Bureau Market Report. To unsubscribe or change your subscription information, go to http://www.arfb.com/commodity_marketing/email/ ---------------------------------------- QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS? If you have any comments or questions about this e-newsletter please e-mail us at mktrpt@arfb.com Arkansas Farm Bureau 10720 Kanis Road Little Rock, AR 72211 501-224-4400 Copyright 2008 Arkansas Farm Bureau, Inc. All rights reserved Terms of Use