07/31/2007 Farm Bureau Market Report

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Grain & Soybean Date: July 31, 2007 Soybeans Local Elevators: (Jul) EAST AR:  746 to 774 (NC) Summ. 775 to 794 River Elevators: (Jul) MISS: 774 to 781 ; AR & White 760 to 781 (NC) Summ. 774 to 800 Ark. Processor Bids: (Jul) 775 to 778  (NC) 793 to 794 Memphis:  (Jul) 793 1/2 to - - - (NC)  799 1/2 to - - - Riceland Foods:  (NC) Stuttgart 775 ; Pendleton 774 ; West Memphis 774 Chicago Futures: Sep up 10 1/4 at  841 1/4   Nov  up  9 3/4  at  857 1/2   Jan up 9 1/2  at  872 1/2   Mar up 9 1/2  at  883 1/2   Nov '08 up 3 1/2  at  894 1/2   Today's Arkansas LDP rate for soybeans is: 0¢ Soybean Comment Soybeans traded to the positive side throughout today’s session. A 3% decline in the good to excellent category in yesterday’s crop progress report set the stage, which was bolstered by a continuous dry, hot outlook for portions of the Midwest. This year’s smaller soybean acreage needs to see good weather over the next 3 weeks during the pod filling stage. Any bobble in yields would result in a very tight supply situation. November needs to close above $8.63 to keep the market in an upmode. Support is still located at $8.34. Wheat Cash bid for July at Memphis  583 to 585; Bids to farmers at Local Elevators 559-568; River Elevators 555-584; Chicago Futures: Sep down  7 1/2  at  630    Dec down 7 3/4  at  649    Mar down  3  at  648    Jul '08 down  5  at  559 1/2    Jul '09 down  2  at  550    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for wheat is: 0¢ Grain Sorghum Cash bid for new crop at Memphis  617 to 618; Bids to farmers at River Elevators 552-623; Today's Arkansas LDP rate for sorghum is: 0¢ Corn Cash bid for July at Memphis   295 3/4 to 300 3/4;   new crop at Memphis   285 3/4 to - - -; Bids to farmers at River Elevators  268 to 279 Chicago Futures: Sep up  2 1/4  at  325 3/4    Dec up  2 1/4  at  342 1/4    Mar up  2 1/4  at  357 1/2    Dec '08 up  2 3/4  at  393    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for corn is: 0¢ Grain Comment Wheat futures were solidly lower today on profit taking after September moved to a new high last week. Export demand is strong despite the high prices, signaling just how short world supplies really are. However, profit taking and technical selling are likely to hit this market at any time. September has an initial downside objective at $6.22 ½, the bottom of the recent chart gap. Cotton & Rice  Date: July 31, 2007 Cotton Spot Price, Grade 41 Staple 34: Memphis  n/a at  - - -   Greenwood   n/a at - - - New York Futures: Oct up  51  at  6300    Dec up  35  at  6490    Mar up  46  at  6810    May up  65  at  6910    Dec '08 up  60  at  7225  This week's LDP rate for cotton is  0 cents   The estimate for next week is  0 cents Cotton Comment Cotton reversed to close a little higher, after trading lower most of the session. Yesterday’s crop progress showed a couple of percentage points decline in the good to excellent categories. Next week’s supply demand report may indicate a slightly larger production number, than has been in the earlier reports. Anything over 18 million bales will be negative. Good export sales are anticipated but better crops in other regions could again make the U.S. a residual supplier. Longer term, the market upside will be limited, until we start thinking in terms of ’08 plantings. Another year at 11 million acres would suggest a very tight supply situation. However, it will probably take ’08 December in the upper 70’s to 80 or better to move acreage back to cotton. Rice Long Grain Cash Bid for  Aug/Sep/Oct/Nov 1001/cwt  to  - - -   - - - - - -  to  - - - Chicago Futures: Sep up  15 1/2  at  1042 1/2    Nov up  14 1/2  at  1076 1/2    Jan up  14  at  1110    Mar up  13  at  1135    - - -   - - -  at  - - -  Today's Arkansas LDP rate for long grain rice is  0¢ medium grain rice is  0¢ Rice Comment November rice futures held above support the last several days and then used that as a base to make strong gains today. However, the overall fundamental situation remains unchanged. Crop conditions remain good and that suggests good yields on this year’s smaller long grain plantings. Milled export movement is very slow as freight and price are generally keeping U.S. rice out of the mix. On the other hand Asian stocks are tightening and won’t improve until this year’s harvest. Vietnam has again exceeded their export quota, while Thailand is making sales out of old government intervention stocks. Overall world stocks are tightening as utilization is again greater than production. Technically, November has resistance at last week’s high of $10.89 with support at the recent $10.50 low. $11.00 would represent a 50% retracement of the June-July decline. Cattle & Hogs  Date: July 31, 2007 Cattle As reported by Federal-State Market News, receipts were 1,420 head at sales in Fort Smith & Marshall.  Compared with last week, feeder steers sold steady to firm, instances 3-5 higher . Steers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 124 to 134   500 to 550 lbs. 113 to 123   600 to 650 lbs. 106 to 116  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 112 to 122 Heifers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 109 to 119  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 99 to 106 Slaughter Cows, Boners 46   to   51 Light Weight n/a to - - - Bulls, Yield Grade   1   1000   to   2100 lbs.   61   to   64.25, high dressing 68-72.50 Midwest Steers   were steady to 2.50 lower   at   88   to   89 Panhandle Steers   were steady to 2.50 lower   at   88   to   89 Oklahoma City Feeders Steers 500 to 550 lbs. 126 to 133   600 to 650 lbs. 120.75 to 127.50 Heifers 500 to 550 lbs. 118 to 125   600 to 650 lbs. 106.50 to 111 Chicago Futures: Live Cattle: Oct up 97 at 9995   Dec up 90 at 10097 Feeders: Oct up 67 at 11887   Jan up 20 at 11490 Cattle Comment Live cattle ended higher, and the move above $94 suggests that a move toward the contract high just above $96 is possible. Gains were limited by futures’ premium to cash and questions about beef demand. Hogs Peoria: were     steady   at   46   to   46.5 Chicago Futures: Oct up 140 at 7520   Dec up 175 at 7290 Sheep St. Paul sheep shorn slaughter lambs   at   n/a   to   - - - Hogs Comment Hog futures set new highs in many contracts, but gains in nearby August were limited by futures’ premium to cash. Persistent rumors of Chinese buying overrode negative factors including ample hog numbers and negative packer margins. Today’s move could open the upside to $79-80 for October. Poultry  Date: July 31, 2007 Eggs New York:  Ex. Lg. n/a; Lg. n/a; Med. n/a; Chicago:  Ex. Lg. n/a; Lg. n/a; Med. n/a; Eastern Region Turkeys Hens: 8-16 lbs. n/a Toms: 16-24 lbs. n/a   Delmarva Broilers U.S. Grade A Trade sentiment was mixed, but overall no better than steady to instances weak. Supplies of all sizes were more than sufficient to available for trade needs. In production areas, live supplies were moderate at weights in a full range. The Composite Weighted Average price for 07/30/07 was 78.62 compared to 80.51 a week earlier, and 67.40 a year ago. ---------------------------------------- HOW TO UNSUBSCRIBE You are receiving this newsletter because you requested that your e-mail address be added to the Arkansas Farm Bureau Market Report. To unsubscribe or change your subscription information, go to http://www.arfb.com/commodity/daily_rpt_email.asp ---------------------------------------- QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS? If you have any comments or questions about this e-newsletter please e-mail us at mktrpt@arfb.com Arkansas Farm Bureau 10720 Kanis Road Little Rock, AR 72211 501-224-4400 Copyright 2007 Arkansas Farm Bureau, Inc. All rights reserved