Click here to view this report online.
  |
| ARKANSAS FARM BUREAU ELECTRONIC NEWSLETTER Bi-Weekly Market Briefings for 09-11-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- http://www.arfb.com Soybeans have lost their upward momentum. For awhile, a tight-supply situation supported the crop; however, prices recently penetrated support at $9.40. This suggests additional seasonal losses are probable, with the next support at $8.80. This month’s Supply/Demand Report has yet to be released, but most private reports are putting yield higher than last month. Weather forecasts indicate little chance of damaging frost, which means weather premiums will be taken out of the market. Economic conditions are still a factor, though. The Dollar Index is under pressure and recently fell to an 11-month low. This is renewing inflation fears. Coupled with stronger crude oil, this could trigger renewed outside interest. Old support at $9.40 becomes initial resistance for a rebound, while the recent high at $10.17 appears unattainable. Corn penetrated support at $3.20, which has definite downside implications. Like soybeans, this month’s Supply/Demand Report is expected to show another upward adjustment in projected yield. Right now, private estimates range as high as 167 bushels per acre (some are quietly suggesting that 170 bushels per acre may be attainable). In any case, there’s a big crop in the making, and it isn’t uncommon for big crop estimates to grow during harvest. The next major chart objective is $2.90, then $2.64. Wheat should be near a seasonal low. Normally the crop drops, makes a low after harvest and then rallies into October and November. However, as the market attempts to deal with large domestic and global stocks, this year may be different. U.S. exports are barely 50 percent of year-ago levels, and that needs to improve. A weaker dollar could bring demand our way. Technically, December will need to close above $5.10 to indicate a bottom has been made. Rice has rallied. Smaller long-grain production numbers, coupled with an expectation of strong demand, are forecasting a tight-stock situation. Adding support is the monsoon season in India, which could reduce their crop prospects by as much as 20 percent. This could turn India from an exporter into an importer, but only time will tell. For now, big Thai intervention stocks continue to hang over the crop. Recent gains suggest November could test earlier resistance between $14.20–$14.25. Should production be even less than expected, or should harvest problems develop, the initial retracement objective is $16.35 (that is 38 percent of the decline from the April ’08 high to the March ’09 low). Cotton has found temporary support at 57 cents. However, the market is unlikely to exceed resistance — the recent December high of $65.47 — unless world economic conditions show greater improvement. The recent downturn in the Chinese stock market suggests that it could be awhile before their textile industry makes a significant rebound. On the supply side, the U.S. crop showed a slight downward slide in this week’s progress report. A smaller crop will help, but it will take a big dip to excite the market. Prospects for cattle futures may be looking up. Product movement was good over the Labor Day weekend, and the feedlot inventory is the smallest it’s been in six years. Recent losses in the value of the dollar have also given the market a boost as U.S. beef becomes more affordable overseas. Processors saw improved margins in August thanks to higher wholesale beef prices. October live cattle charted a bullish key reversal last week and could head toward the 38 percent retracement objective near $88.30. October feeders have also charted a key reversal and gapped above the recent downtrend. The 38 percent retracement objective near $99.80 is now the first upside target. Over the past couple weeks, hog futures have inched higher thanks to strength in the cash hog market. A seasonal increase in marketings, however, could limit the upside potential. Demand is disappointing, and exports, in particular, are down sharply from a year ago. For now, it looks like October futures have found support at the August contract low of $43.57. In poultry, Arkansas had 23.1 million eggs set for the week ending Aug. 29, up slightly from the previous week. There were 20.5 million chicks placed, down nearly 500,000. Year-to-date totals for chicks placed in the top 19 producing states are down 4.5 million from this week last year. Year-to-date totals for eggs are down 5.3 million. In broilers, the estimated national slaughter for the week ending Sept. 5 is nearly 170 million. Actual slaughter for the week ending Aug. 29 was 169.5 million. Contact: • Gene Martin (501) 228-1330, gene.martin@arfb.com . • Brandy Carroll (501) 228-1268, brandy.carroll@arfb.com . • Bruce Tencleve (501) 228-1856, bruce.tencleve@arfb.com . • Matt King (501) 228-1297, matt.king@arfb.com . -------------------------------------------------------------------------- We promised you your own bank, and here it is - www.farmbureaubank.com Created by members who understand your financial needs like no other bank can. Backed by the strength, stability and leadership of Farm Bureau. Go ahead. See what better banking is all about. Call 1-800-492-FARM Personal Bankers are available Monday - Friday, 7am to 7pm CST -------------------------------------------------------------------------- QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS? If you have any comments or questions about this e-newsletter please e-mail us at: mktrpt@arfb.com -------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------- HOW TO UNSUBSCRIBE You are receiving this newsletter because you requested that your e-mail address be added to the Arkansas Farm Bureau Market Report. To unsubscribe or change your subscription information, go to http://www.arfb.com/commodity_marketing/email/ ---------------------------------------- QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS? If you have any comments or questions about this e-newsletter please e-mail us at mktrpt@arfb.com Arkansas Farm Bureau Copyright 2009  |
No comments:
Post a Comment