05/12/2009 Farm Bureau Market Report

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Grain & Soybean Date: May 12, 2009 Soybeans Local Elevators: (May) EAST AR:  1103 to 1118 (NC) Summ. 920 to 937 River Elevators: (May) MISS: 1118 to 1138 ; AR & White 1102 to 1117 (NC) Summ. 922 to 955 Ark. Processor Bids: (May) 1111 to 1118  (NC) 932 to 934 Memphis:  (May) 1127 1/2 to 1137 1/2 (NC)  959 1/2 to - - - Riceland Foods:  (May) Stuttgart 1118 ; Pendleton 1118 ; West Memphis 1138 Chicago Futures: July up 1 1/2 at  1117 1/2   Sept  down  1 1/2  at  1023 1/2   Nov down 3 1/2  at  979 1/2   Jan '10 down 3  at  983 3/4   Mar '10 down 2  at  982   Today's Arkansas LDP rate for soybeans is: 0¢ Soybean Comment Soybeans closed mixed with a reversal of the overnight trade. Tight old crop stocks pushed nearby futures higher while the slow corn planting pace and the potential for more soybean acres weighed on new crop. USDA lowered 08/09 ending stocks by 35 million bushels to just 130 million bushels. Using the March planting projection and trendline yields, USDA put the 09 crop at 3.195 billion bushels and 09/10 ending stocks at 230 million bushels. Planted acreage is generally expected to be considerably higher than the 76 million acres in the March intentions. Inability to hold overnight gains suggests a move above $10 will be difficult, but the next upside objective is $10.38. Wheat Cash bid for May at Memphis  508 3/4 to 510 3/4; Bids to farmers at Local Elevators 493-513; River Elevators 505-533; Chicago Futures: July up  2  at  592 3/4    Sept up 2 1/2  at  619 1/2    Dec up  2 1/2  at  641 3/4    Mar '10 up  2 3/4  at  656 3/4    May '10 up  3 1/4  at  666 1/2    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for wheat is: 0¢ Grain Sorghum Cash bid for May at Memphis  603 to 604; Bids to farmers at River Elevators 530-610; Today's Arkansas LDP rate for sorghum is: 0¢ Corn Cash bid for May at Memphis   418 1/2 to - - -;   New crop at Memphis   401 1/4 to 404 1/4; Bids to farmers at River Elevators  390 to 415 Chicago Futures: July up  6 1/4  at  427 1/2    Sept up  6 3/4  at  436 1/4    Dec up  7 3/4  at  448    Mar '10 up  8  at  458 3/4    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for corn is: 0¢ Grain Comment Wheat closed steady to firm on a smaller projected crop of 2.03 billion bushels. Smaller projected ending stocks was also a positive factor. July is testing the $6 level and may find tough sledding at the next chart points of $6.31 and $6.68. Corn firmed as traders look at the slow pace of planting and forecasts for more rain. 08/09 use was raised by 100 million bushels in today’s report. That lowered projected ending stocks to 1.6 billion bushels. USDA projected an ‘09 production of 12.1 billion bushels, that is a yield of 155.4 bushels per acre on projected plantings of 85 million acres. Yield has been adjusted a little below trendline because of late planting. Ethanol use in 09/10 was pushed up to 4.1 billion bushels and stocks would drop to 1.15 billion bushels. September’s strong close suggests a move toward resistance between $4.58 and $4.75. Cotton & Rice  Date: May 12, 2009 Cotton Spot Price, Grade 41 Staple 34: Memphis down 22 at  5632   Greenwood down  22 at 5632 New York Futures: July down  22  at  6032    Oct down  52  at  6161    Dec down  72  at  6214    Mar '10 down  103  at  6382    - - -   - - -  at  - - -  This week's LDP rate for cotton is  7.83 cents   The estimate for next week is  6.10 cents Cotton Comment Cotton declined after recent sharp gains and closed lower today. USDA made only minor changes in the 08/09 supply demand numbers, but the first 09/10 projection was somewhat disappointing. Exports for 09/10 were forecast at just 11 million bales, reflecting a poor world economic climate and slow growth in China’s mill sector. USDA did project Chinese imports at 9 million bales, up from just 6.5 million bales this year. However, U.S. stocks were projected to be 5.6 million bales in 09/10 down just a little over one million bales from this year. None of this reflects this year’s slow planting pace and the potential impact of the current wet weather. Technically, look for a temporary pullback. December has good support at the old high of 57.2 cents. Should the uptrend continue the next upside retracement objective is 69.2 cents. Rice Long Grain Cash Bid for  n/a - - -  to  - - -   n/a - - -  to  - - - Chicago Futures: July down  47 1/2  at  1217 1/2    Sept down  47  at  1187    Nov down  50  at  1197    Jan '10 down  45  at  1221    - - -   - - -  at  - - -  Today's Arkansas LDP rate for long grain rice is  0¢ medium grain rice is  0¢ Rice Comment Rice futures were sharply lower as the market broke out of a very narrow 5 week trading range. USDA’s monthly supply demand report provided the initial look at 09/10 marking year projections. Increased 09 plantings are expected to produce 224 million cwt of rice with projecting ending stocks increasing from 23 to 39 million cwt. The average farm price of 09/10 long grain was projected at $9.50 to 10.50 per cwt. World numbers reflect increased production over the last several years with ending stocks projected to increase from 75 mmt to 94.7 mmt in just 3 years. Today’s sharp break by September futures suggests a test of the mid March low of $11.40. Cattle & Hogs  Date: May 12, 2009 Cattle As reported by Federal-State Market News, receipts were 786 head at sales in Fort Smith and Heber Springs.  Compared with last week, feeder steers sold $1 to $4 higher, most advance on thin fleshed weaned calves suitable for grazing . Steers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 119.50 to - - -   500 to 550 lbs. 112.50 to - - -   600 to 650 lbs. 108.50 to - - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 106.50 to - - - Heifers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   500 to 550 lbs. 97.50 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 91.50 to - - - Slaughter Cows, Boners 45   to   51 Light Weight 30 to 33.50 Bulls, Yield Grade   1   1000   to   2100 lbs.   61   to   65 Midwest Steers   were steady to $2 lower   at   83   to   - - - Panhandle Steers   were steady to $3 lower   at   83   to   - - - Oklahoma City Feeders Steers 500 to 550 lbs. 120.75 to 122.25   550 to 600 lbs. 114 to 119.50 Heifers 400 to 500 lbs. 109 to 115   500 to 600 lbs. 99.25 to 108.75 Chicago Futures: Live Cattle: June down 7 at 8320   Aug down 32 at 8357 Feeders: Aug down 15 at 10145   Sept down 32 at 10155 Cattle Comment Cattle futures were mixed at the end of today’s session. USDA projected beef production up slightly from year ago levels. That may make it difficult for cattle as economic conditions continue to be a factor in retail beef demand. Hogs Peoria: were $1.50 to $2     higher   at   34.50   to   35 Chicago Futures: June up 115 at 6892   Aug up 60 at 7085 Sheep St. Paul n/a   at   - - -   to   - - - Hogs Comment Hogs rebounded to close higher. Carcass values were up almost $2 from yesterday, as market ready supplies are tight. Seasonally supplies decline into June and this year will not be an exception. Poultry  Date: May 12,2009 Eggs New York:  Ex. Lg. 72-76; Lg. 70-74; Med. 61-65; Chicago:  Ex. Lg. 62-70; Lg. 60-68; Med. 52-60; Eastern Region Turkeys Hens: 8-16 lbs. 77-80 Toms: 16-24 lbs. 77-80   Delmarva Broilers U.S. Grade A Trade sentiment was fully steady to mostly firm. Retail demand was light to fair with limited trading. Food service demand was moderate to fairly good, best for active fast food promotions. Supplies of all sizes were usually sufficient to well cleared to satisfy current trade needs. In production areas, live supplies were moderate at mostly desirable weights. ---------------------------------------- HOW TO UNSUBSCRIBE You are receiving this newsletter because you requested that your e-mail address be added to the Arkansas Farm Bureau Market Report. To unsubscribe or change your subscription information, go to http://www.arfb.com/commodity_marketing/email/ ---------------------------------------- QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS? If you have any comments or questions about this e-newsletter please e-mail us at mktrpt@arfb.com Arkansas Farm Bureau 10720 Kanis Road Little Rock, AR 72211 501-224-4400 Copyright 2009 Arkansas Farm Bureau, Inc. All rights reserved Terms of Use