05/05/2009 Farm Bureau Market Report

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Grain & Soybean Date: May 5, 2009 Soybeans Local Elevators: (May) EAST AR:  1084 to 1099 (NC) Summ. 901 to 918 River Elevators: (May) MISS: 1101 to 1121 ; AR & White 1086 to 1101 (NC) Summ. 902 to 936 Ark. Processor Bids: (May) 1094 to 1099  (NC) 913 to 915 Memphis:  (May) 1121 to 1122 (NC)  940 1/2 to - - - Riceland Foods:  (May) Stuttgart 1099 ; Pendleton 1099 ; West Memphis 1110 Chicago Futures: Jul down 2 1/2 at  1101   Sep  down  7 1/2  at  1007   Nov down 10  at  960 1/2   Jan '10 down 10  at  964 1/2   Mar '10 down 9  at  962 1/2   Today's Arkansas LDP rate for soybeans is: 0¢ Soybean Comment Soybeans reversed overnight gains and closed lower except for the expiring May contract. Tight near term supplies remain a concern but the overriding concern was the potential for more acres moving to soybeans as corn planting remains well behind schedule. Upside potential for new crop will be limited by that threat. Yesterday’s high of $9.87 ½ is now resistance. Support at $9.50 is tenuous at best, that leaves trendline support around $9 as the best bet. Corn stabilized to close narrowly mixed as the market firmed in the day trade. Illinois showed 5% planted versus 66% the last 5 years. Missouri, Ohio and Indiana are also well behind the norm. Overall planting is 33% compared to 50%, so some states like Iowa, Minnesota and Nebraska are ahead of normal. The Eastern cornbelt could be in the fields by the weekend, weather permitting. Wheat Cash bid for May at Memphis  471 1/2 to 485 1/2; Bids to farmers at Local Elevators 454-474; River Elevators 465-494; Chicago Futures: Jul up  2 1/2  at  553 1/2    Sep up 2 3/4  at  580 1/4    Dec up  2 3/4  at  602 3/4    Mar '10 up  2 3/4  at  618 1/4    May '10 up  2 3/4  at  627 1/4    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for wheat is: 0¢ Grain Sorghum Cash bid for May at Memphis  563 to 570; Bids to farmers at River Elevators 491-571; Today's Arkansas LDP rate for sorghum is: 0¢ Corn Cash bid for May at Memphis   399 1/4 to - - -;   new crop at Memphis   379 1/4 to - - -; Bids to farmers at River Elevators  367 to 397 Chicago Futures: Jul down  2 1/2  at  405 1/4    Sep down  6 1/2  at  414 1/4    Dec down  1/2  at  425    Mar '10 down  1/4  at  437 1/2    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for corn is: 0¢ Grain Comment Wheat firmed but closed well below earlier highs. Weather implications could put the market in an up mode, but poor export demand will be a limiting factor. July resistance near $5.80 will be a major stumbling block. Cotton & Rice  Date: May 5, 2009 Cotton Spot Price, Grade 41 Staple 34: Memphis up 83 at  5405   Greenwood up  83 at 5405 New York Futures: Jul up  83  at  5805    Oct up  95  at  5993    Dec up  101  at  6077    Mar '10 up  129  at  6305    - - -   - - -  at  - - -  This week's LDP rate for cotton is  10.05 cents   The estimate for next week is  8.54 cents Cotton Comment Cotton blasted to the highest level in over 6 months. New crop December stopped short of 62 cents before losing momentum, and closing well below the day’s highs. This comes after penetrating prior resistance at 57.2 cents last week. The market is overbought technically with the 9 day Relative Strength Index well above 70. This could mean a substantial downward retracement at some point in the near future. Fundamentals remain negative, but planting weather could keep the rally moving higher. Rice Long Grain Cash Bid for  n/a - - -  to  - - -   n/a - - -  to  - - - Chicago Futures: Jul unchanged    at  1301 1/2    Sep up  3 1/2  at  1252 1/2    Nov up  3  at  1253 1/2    Jan '10 unchanged    at  1276    - - -   - - -  at  - - -  Today's Arkansas LDP rate for long grain rice is  0¢ medium grain rice is  0¢ Rice Comment Rice was marginally lower in a light trade with September continuing to test resistance at the upper limits of the trading range that has contained the market for the last several months. A close above this level would signal a possible move to the next resistance level is $12.85. U.S. acreage is expected to be slightly higher this year. While production will increase, it shouldn’t be enough to really impact the market significantly. The bigger problem may be the probable availability to the market of big intervention stocks in Thailand and India. This is a market situation that needs to be monitored on a continuing basis. Cattle & Hogs  Date: May 5, 2009 Cattle As reported by Federal-State Market News, receipts were 610 head at sales in Fort Smith & Heber Springs.  Compared with last week, feeder steers sold steady to $2 higher . Steers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 113.25 to - - -   500 to 550 lbs. 105.50 to - - -   600 to 650 lbs. n/a to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. n/a to - - - Heifers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 97.50 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. n/a to - - - Slaughter Cows, Boners 45   to   48.50 Light Weight 35 to 41 Bulls, Yield Grade   1   1000   to   2100 lbs.   57   to   64, high dressing n/a Midwest Steers   were steady to $3.50 lower   at   83   to   - - - Panhandle Steers   n/a   at   - - -   to   - - - Oklahoma City Feeders Steers 550 to 600 lbs. 112.25 to 116   600 to 650 lbs. 107 to 113 Heifers n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - -   n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - - Chicago Futures: Live Cattle: Jun up 25 at 8212   Aug up 12 at 8222 Feeders: Aug up 10 at 9877   Sep up 5 at 9900 Cattle Comment Cattle remained in a narrow trading range today. June live cattle have substantial support near $82, which if broken would likely see a dip to $80. That looks like solid support for the long day run. Slaughter numbers are down almost 5% from a year ago, but heavier weights are an offsetting factor. Weights are expected to decline in the weeks ahead. Hogs Peoria: were $1     lower   at   31.5   to   32 Chicago Futures: Jun up 102 at 6480   Aug up 82 at 6890 Sheep St. Paul sheep shorn slaughter lambs   at   n/a   to   - - - Hogs Comment Hogs rebounded to close higher as Mexico resumed more normal activities following the H1N1 flu incident. While pork demand isn’t expected to recover immediately, the decline in hog prices has provided packers with buying incentive. Slaughter will increase when retail demand improves. Poultry  Date: May 5, 2009 Eggs New York:  Ex. Lg. 76-80; Lg. 74-78; Med. 64-68; Chicago:  Ex. Lg. 68-76; Lg. 66-74; Med. 56-64; Eastern Region Turkeys Hens: 8-16 lbs. 76-79 Toms: 16-24 lbs. 76-79   Delmarva Broilers U.S. Grade A Trade sentiment was fully steady to mostly firm. Supplies of all sizes were usually sufficient to well cleared to satisfy current trade needs. In production areas, live supplies were moderate at mostly desirable weights. ---------------------------------------- HOW TO UNSUBSCRIBE You are receiving this newsletter because you requested that your e-mail address be added to the Arkansas Farm Bureau Market Report. To unsubscribe or change your subscription information, go to http://www.arfb.com/commodity_marketing/email/ ---------------------------------------- QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS? If you have any comments or questions about this e-newsletter please e-mail us at mktrpt@arfb.com Arkansas Farm Bureau 10720 Kanis Road Little Rock, AR 72211 501-224-4400 Copyright 2009 Arkansas Farm Bureau, Inc. All rights reserved Terms of Use