05/01/2009 Farm Bureau Market Report

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Grain & Soybean Date: May 01, 2009 Soybeans Local Elevators: (May) EAST AR:  1066 to 1083 (NC) Summ. 911 to 928 River Elevators: (May) MISS: 1086 to 1106 ; AR & White 1064 to 1079 (NC) Summ. 913 to 946 Ark. Processor Bids: (May) 1081 to 1084  (NC) 921 to 923 Memphis:  (May) 1111 to 1117 (NC)  951 to - - - Riceland Foods:  (May) Stuttgart 1081 ; Pendleton 1081 ; West Memphis 1100 Chicago Futures: Jul up 36 at  1091   Sep  up  30 1/2  at  1011   Nov up 27 1/2  at  971   Jan '10 up 26 1/4  at  973 3/4   Mar '10 up 22  at  973   Today's Arkansas LDP rate for soybeans is: 0¢ Soybean Comment Soybeans were sharply higher across the board today. Even new crop made strong gains with November closing well above previous resistance at $9.50 and $9.58. The next major resistance is the January 6 high of $10.38. While the market could see continued technical buying, there isn’t a lot of fundamental support on the new crop end. Tight supplies are a factor for old crop and this can pull new crop along for a while. But the bubble can burst at any time. Corn followed wheat and beans higher with slow planting progress and forecasts of more rain adding underlying support. Rain is expected into the first of next week in areas of the Midwest that are already well behind normal planting. September is testing resistance near $4.25 and could attempt to test the early January high of $4.58. Wheat Cash bid for May at Memphis  496 to 504; Bids to farmers at Local Elevators 470-495; River Elevators 482-515; Chicago Futures: Jul up  33 1/2  at  570    Sep up 33 1/4  at  596 1/2    Dec up  32 1/4  at  618 1/2    Mar '10 up  32  at  634 1/4    May '10 up  31 3/4  at  643    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for wheat is: 0¢ Grain Sorghum Cash bid for May at Memphis  578 to 585; Bids to farmers at River Elevators 519-600; Today's Arkansas LDP rate for sorghum is: 0¢ Corn Cash bid for May at Memphis   407 3/4 to - - -;   new crop at Memphis   387 1/2 to - - -; Bids to farmers at River Elevators  382 to 407 Chicago Futures: Jul up  10 1/4  at  413 3/4    Sep up  10  at  422 1/2    Dec up  10  at  433 1/4    Mar '10 up  10 1/4  at  445    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for corn is: 0¢ Grain Comment July wheat closed sharply higher and is in position to retest resistance just above $5.75. Weather and slow spring planting progress provided the initial impetus for this week’s rally. It now appears a lot of technical short covering aided the rally and helped account for significant gains. Long term export demand remains soft. Cotton & Rice  Date: May 01, 2009 Cotton Spot Price, Grade 41 Staple 34: Memphis up 285 at  5295   Greenwood up  285 at 5295 New York Futures: Jul up  285  at  5652    Oct up  394  at  5920    Dec up  244  at  5990    Mar '10 up  209  at  6185    - - -   - - -  at  - - -  This week's LDP rate for cotton is  11.49 cents   The estimate for next week is  9.86 cents Cotton Comment Cotton joined the party with December hitting 60 cents. After penetrating prior resistance at 57.2 cents the market has a good jump on the 38% retracement objective of 63.5 cents. However, the market is overbought technically with the 9 day Relative Strength Index well above 70. This could mean a substantial downward retracement at some point in the near future. Fundamentals remain negative, but planting weather could keep the rally moving higher. Rice Long Grain Cash Bid for  n/a - - -  to  - - -   n/a - - -  to  - - - Chicago Futures: Jul up  14  at  1324    Sep up  5 1/2  at  1248    Nov up  6  at  1250    Jan '10 up  6 1/2  at  1273 1/2    - - -   - - -  at  - - -  Today's Arkansas LDP rate for long grain rice is  0¢ medium grain rice is  0¢ Rice Comment Rice futures firmed, but September failed to penetrate resistance at $12.50. If that happens, the next resistance level is $12.85. U.S. acreage is expected to be slightly higher this year. While production will increase, it shouldn’t be enough to really impact the market significantly. The bigger problem may be the probable availability to the market of big intervention stocks in Thailand and India. This is a market situation that needs to be monitored on a continuing basis. Cattle & Hogs  Date: May 01, 2009 Cattle As reported by Federal-State Market News, receipts were 10,535 head at sales in Arkansas this week.  Compared with last week, feeder steers sold steady to $2 lower, decline on steers mainly on calves . Steers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 116.50 to - - -   500 to 550 lbs. 94 to - - -   600 to 650 lbs. 89.75 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 104.75 to - - - Heifers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 98.50 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 89.50 to - - - Slaughter Cows, Boners 45   to   50 Light Weight 32 to 40 Bulls, Yield Grade   1   1000   to   2100 lbs.   56   to   63, high dressing 63-67 Midwest Steers   were $1 higher   at   86   to   - - Panhandle Steers   remained   at   85   to   - - - Oklahoma City Feeders Steers n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - -   n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - - Heifers n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - -   n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - - Chicago Futures: Live Cattle: Jun down 40 at 8210   Aug down 62 at 8202 Feeders: Aug down 117 at 9845   Nov down 112 at 9880 Cattle Comment Cattle futures closed mixed after failing to hold early gains. Wholesale beef values appear to have peaked after raising almost $20/cwt in a 3 week period. Slaughter numbers are down about 5% from year ago levels, but that is being offset by heavier slaughter weights. Long term economic conditions are still weighing on consumer confidence, and this will impact higher end cuts and therefore cattle values. Hogs Peoria: were $1     lower   at   34.5   to   35 Chicago Futures: Jun up 105 at 6557   Aug up 60 at 6957 Sheep St. Paul sheep shorn slaughter lambs   at   n/a   to   - - - Hogs Comment Hogs made a slight rebound today, but it was rather anemic when compared to this week’s panic induced losses. Seasonally, the market should be moving up instead of down, and numbers are tight enough to support an upturn. Poultry  Date: May 01, 2009 Eggs New York:  Ex. Lg. 78-82; Lg. 76-80; Med. 65-69; Chicago:  Ex. Lg. 72-80; Lg. 76-80; Med. 59-67; Eastern Region Turkeys Hens: 8-16 lbs. 76-79 Toms: 16-24 lbs. 76-79   Delmarva Broilers U.S. Grade A Trade sentiment was steady. Demand following the weekend was mostly fair with limited trading. Supplies of all sizes were adequate to satisfy current trade needs. In productions areas, live supplies were moderate at mostly desirable weights. ---------------------------------------- HOW TO UNSUBSCRIBE You are receiving this newsletter because you requested that your e-mail address be added to the Arkansas Farm Bureau Market Report. To unsubscribe or change your subscription information, go to http://www.arfb.com/commodity_marketing/email/ ---------------------------------------- QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS? If you have any comments or questions about this e-newsletter please e-mail us at mktrpt@arfb.com Arkansas Farm Bureau 10720 Kanis Road Little Rock, AR 72211 501-224-4400 Copyright 2009 Arkansas Farm Bureau, Inc. All rights reserved Terms of Use