09/12/2007 Farm Bureau Market Report

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Grain & Soybean Date: September 12, 2007 Soybeans Local Elevators: (Sep) EAST AR:  854 to 876 (NC) Summ. 865 to 884 River Elevators: (Sep) MISS: 879 to 887 ; AR & White 868 to 887 (NC) Summ. 870 to 890 Ark. Processor Bids: (Sep) 864 to 876  (NC) 884 to 887 Memphis:  (Sep) 888 1/2 to - - - (NC)  898 1/2 to 904 1/2 Riceland Foods:  (NC) Stuttgart 876 ; Pendleton 876 ; West Memphis 881 Chicago Futures: Sep up 20 at  925   Nov  up  18  at  938 1/2   Jan up 18  at  953 3/4   Mar up 17 1/4  at  964 3/4   Nov '08 up 5 1/2  at  924 1/2   Today's Arkansas LDP rate for soybeans is: 0¢ Soybean Comment Soybeans made big gains following the USDA report which lowered the ’07 production number to hold all the gain as November pushed to a new contract high before losing momentum. Corn pushed up to 15 cent gains despite a 3 bushel increase in projected yields which put production at 13.3 billion bushels. This suggests little downside in the grain and beans with funds finding renewed vigor in soaring oil futures. Corn’s next resistance is the recent December high of $3.72, while beans will have resistance at today’s 9.59 ½ high. Corn support is just under $3.40, and beans have support between $9.05 and $8.90. Wheat Cash bid for September at Memphis  798 1/2 to 799 1/2; Bids to farmers at Local Elevators 507; River Elevators 499-522; Chicago Futures: Sep down  31  at  840    Dec down 30  at  860 1/2    Mar down  30  at  861 1/2    Jul '08 down  6  at  592    Jul '09 down  12  at  418 1/2    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for wheat is: 0¢ Grain Sorghum Cash bid for September at Memphis  690 to - - -; Bids to farmers at River Elevators 609-673; Today's Arkansas LDP rate for sorghum is: 0¢ Corn Cash bid for September at Memphis   326 1/2 to 327 1/2;   new crop at Memphis   n/a to - - -; Bids to farmers at River Elevators  314 to 327 Chicago Futures: Sep up  15 1/4  at  339 3/4    Dec up  15 1/4  at  356 1/2    Mar up  15 1/4  at  373    Dec '08 up  12  at  403 1/2    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for corn is: 0¢ Grain Comment Wheat futures were higher in early dealings in reaction to today’s reports, but ended lower—down the limit in many contracts. Bearish key reversals were also charted in many contracts. The U.S. carryover was cut to the lowest level in 34 years. World stocks were also slashed, down to 112.36 million metric tons from 114.78 million in the August estimate. The bullish supply situation has been well known for sometime. Today’s reversal could spark a sharp drop in futures. Corn futures ended higher despite a U.S. crop estimate of 13.3 billion bushels. USDA upped their average yield estimate to 155.8 bushels/acre. Apparently though, those numbers don’t come as a surprise to the market. New contract highs in oil futures and weakness of the dollar added strength. Cotton & Rice  Date: September 12, 2007 Cotton Spot Price, Grade 41 Staple 34: Memphis up 120 at  5760   Greenwood up  120 at 5760 New York Futures: Oct up  95  at  6010    Dec up  93  at  6257    Mar up  79  at  6571    May up  85  at  6695    Dec '08 up  90  at  7135  This week's LDP rate for cotton is  1.10 cents   The estimate for next week is  1.00 cents Cotton Comment USDA pegged ’07 cotton production at 17.8 million bales, up almost a half million bales from August. Usage was unchanged with ending stocks raised 400,000 bales to 6.2 million bales. World production was raised 1.26 million bales which was offset by a similar reduction in beginning stocks. China’s projected import needs were lowered by 1 million bales. The market reaction was positive with December hitting the 50% retracement objective just below 63 cents. The next upside objective is 64.14 cents. Trendline support starts around 61 cents. Rice Long Grain Cash Bid for  Sep/Oct 1000  to  1028/cwt   Nov 1029/cwt  to  - - - Chicago Futures: Sep down  5  at  1100    Nov down  5  at  1128    Jan down  3  at  1160    Mar down  2  at  1186    n/a down  - - -  at  - - -  Today's Arkansas LDP rate for long grain rice is  0¢ medium grain rice is  0¢ Rice Comment Rice was a little weaker despite a generally stronger undertone in beans and corn. The USDA report showed a slight downward revision in beginning stocks, and a small upward adjustment in production. Use for 07/08 was also reduced, with the net effect being essentially no change in projected ending stocks for all rice. On the other hand, long grain numbers saw a slight revision downward in ending stocks. This is an overall tightening which was expected as a result of the second consecutive year of smaller production. Current resistance is yesterday’s high of $11.40 and the contract high of $11.58. The market remains in a positive mode. Cattle & Hogs  Date: September 12, 2007 Cattle As reported by Federal-State Market News, receipts were 1,862 head at sales in Conway, Ola & Pocahontas.  Compared with last week, feeder steers sold steady to $2 lower . Steers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 121 to 131   500 to 550 lbs. 108 to 118   600 to 700 lbs. 104 to 114  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 110 to 118 Heifers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 107 to 117  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 95 to 105 Slaughter Cows, Boners 45   to   49.50 Light Weight 32 to 36 Bulls, Yield Grade   1   1000   to   2100 lbs.   60.50   to   65, high dressing 65.50-67 Midwest Steers   n/a   at   - - -   to   - - - Panhandle Steers   n/a   at   - - -   to   - - - Oklahoma City Feeders Steers 500 to 550 lbs. 117.25 to 124.50   600 to 650 lbs. 114.50 to 119 Heifers 500 to 550 lbs. 106.50 to 111.25   600 to 650 lbs. 110 to 115 Chicago Futures: Live Cattle: Oct down 97 at 9472   Dec down 60 at 9900 Feeders: Oct down 162 at 11670   Jan down 155 at 11717 Cattle Comment Cattle futures were mostly lower. Feeders were under heavy pressure from gains in corn. Weakness in wholesale beef prices and concerns about the U.S. economy were also factors. Hogs Peoria: were     steady   at   39.5   to   40 Chicago Futures: Oct down 65 at 6520   Dec down 10 at 6800 Sheep St. Paul sheeps horn slaughter lambs   at   n/a   to   - - - Hogs Comment Hog futures were also lower. Concerns about large hog supplies and weakening pork prices added pressure. Strong packer demand offset that to some degree, but there are concerns about whether or not the pork market can handle the large supplies. Poultry  Date: September 12, 2007 Eggs New York:  Ex. Lg. 131-135; Lg. 129-133; Med. 92-96; Chicago:  Ex. Lg. 121-129; Lg. 119-127; Med. 86-94; Eastern Region Turkeys Hens: 8-16 lbs. 92-93 Toms: 16-24 lbs. 92-93   Delmarva Broilers U.S. Grade A Trade sentiment was mixed, but mostly barely steady to weak. Supplies of all sizes were adequate to burdensome with sharp discounting noted to help clear additional product. In production areas, live supplies were moderate. Weights were mostly desirable, but at times heavy. ---------------------------------------- HOW TO UNSUBSCRIBE You are receiving this newsletter because you requested that your e-mail address be added to the Arkansas Farm Bureau Market Report. To unsubscribe or change your subscription information, go to http://www.arfb.com/commodity/daily_rpt_email.asp ---------------------------------------- QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS? If you have any comments or questions about this e-newsletter please e-mail us at mktrpt@arfb.com Arkansas Farm Bureau 10720 Kanis Road Little Rock, AR 72211 501-224-4400 Copyright 2007 Arkansas Farm Bureau, Inc. All rights reserved