02/10/2009 Farm Bureau Market Report

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Grain & Soybean Date: February 10, 2009 Soybeans Local Elevators: (Feb) EAST AR:  969 to 999 (NC) Summ. 849 to 879 River Elevators: (Feb) MISS: 994 to 1009 ; AR & White 969 to 984 (NC) Summ. 864 to 894 Ark. Processor Bids: (Feb) 985 to 989  (NC) 869 to 879 Memphis:  (Feb) 1009 to 1014 (NC)  894 to - - - Riceland Foods:  (Feb) Stuttgart 989 ; Pendleton 999 ; West Memphis 1006 Chicago Futures: Mar down 8 at  994   May  down  7 1/4  at  1000 1/4   Jul down 7 1/4  at  1007 1/4   Sep down 7  at  967   Nov down 4  at  939   Today's Arkansas LDP rate for soybeans is: 0¢ Soybean Comment Soybeans closed the day lower despite a positive supply demand report. USDA cut the domestic crush by 35 million bushels, but more than offset that with a 50 million bushel increase in exports. That left projected ending stocks at 210 million bushels, down 15 from last month. USDA also trimmed South American estimates, dropping Argentina to 43.8 mmt and Brazil to 57. That was a total cut of 7.7 mmt from the January estimates. The March contract remains in a sideways pattern with support at $9.35 and resistance near $10.20. November is a slight downtrend with support at the recent low near $8.90, while resistance is seen at $10.40. Corn was slightly lower after USDA left the U.S. supply demand report unchanged from a month ago. Most pre-report estimates suggested use would decline and projected stocks would inch toward the 2 billion bushel mark. Both world production and use were lowered with most of the production cut coming from drought stricken Argentina. For now, corn remains in a tight consolidation trading range. Wheat Cash bid for February at Memphis  456 to 466; Bids to farmers at Local Elevators 462-477; River Elevators 472-502; Chicago Futures: Mar down  9  at  556    May down 9  at  569    Jul down  9  at  581 1/2    Sep down  8 1/4  at  607    Dec down  7 3/4  at  628    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for wheat is: 0¢ Grain Sorghum Cash bid for February at Memphis  521 to - - -; Bids to farmers at River Elevators 608; Today's Arkansas LDP rate for sorghum is: 0¢ Corn Cash bid for February at Memphis   376 3/4 to 379 3/4;   new crop at Memphis   367 1/2 to - - -; Bids to farmers at River Elevators  337 to 377 Chicago Futures: Mar down  3/4  at  376 3/4    May down  1  at  387    Sep down  1 1/4  at  407 1/2    Dec down  1 1/4  at  420 1/2    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for corn is: 0¢ Grain Comment Wheat futures turned lower today as well. USDA didn’t change the balance sheet for US wheat. They did cut the Argentine production estimate down to half what it was a year ago. Export sales to South Korea and Japan also should have been good news. July has found tough resistance at $6, and support begins at last week’s low of $5.64 ½. Cotton & Rice  Date: February 10, 2009 Cotton Spot Price, Grade 41 Staple 34: Memphis down 300 at  4248   Greenwood down  300 at 4248 New York Futures: Mar down  300  at  4698    May down  266  at  4795    Jul down  260  at  4934    Dec down  242  at  5207    - - -   - - -  at  - - -  This week's LDP rate for cotton is  12.73 cents   The estimate for next week is  13.17 cents Cotton Comment Cotton was hit with another bearish report that featured a 300,000 bale dip in domestic mill use and exports that declined 500,000 bales. The export number is the direct result of a lower Chinese use, 47 million bales compared to 48.5 a month ago, that trimmed their import projection by a million bales. The net result was projected U.S. ending stocks of 7.7 million bales and sharply lower futures. The market dropped out of a very tight sideways pattern with December likely to test recent support just under 52 cents, while March is headed to 46 cents or lower. Rice Long Grain Cash Bid for  n/a - - -  to  - - -   n/a - - -  to  - - - Chicago Futures: Mar down  50  at  1260 1/2    May down  50  at  1270    Jul down  50  at  1281    Sep down  36  at  1204    - - -   - - -  at  - - -  Today's Arkansas LDP rate for long grain rice is  0¢ medium grain rice is  0¢ Rice Comment Rice numbers weren’t changed a lot but enough to suggest the market can go lower if export sales aren’t forthcoming soon. USDA lowered milled rice export projections from 53 to 50 million cwt, with all of that coming out of long grain. It also sent the price projection 50 cents lower to a range of $15 to $16. The question is how soon the U.S. will get back in the export market and at what price level. Current quotes are just under $600 per tonne, while Vietnam continues to move rice at around $400 per tonne. Today’s reversal may send March back near support at $11.55. Cattle & Hogs  Date: February 10, 2009 Cattle As reported by Federal-State Market News, receipts were 730 head at sales in Fort Smith.  Compared with last week, feeder steers sold $2-5 higher . Steers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 118.50 to - - -   500 to 550 lbs. 106.25 to - - -   600 to 650 lbs. 93.75 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 103.25 to - - - Heifers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 96.50 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 84.75 to - - - Slaughter Cows, Boners 42   to   46.50 Light Weight n/a to - - - Bulls, Yield Grade   1   1000   to   2100 lbs.   50   to   55.50, high dressing 61.50-64.50 Midwest Steers   n/a   at   - - -   to   - - - Panhandle Steers   n/a   at   - - -   to   - - - Oklahoma City Feeders Steers 500 to 550 lbs. 106 to 114.50   600 to 650 lbs. 98 to 107 Heifers 550 to 600 lbs. 88 to 93   650 to 700 lbs. 87 to 93.75 Chicago Futures: Live Cattle: Apr up 30 at 8805   Jun up 47 at 8540 Feeders: Mar up 15 at 9570   May down 5 at 9847 Cattle Comment Cattle futures opened strong today on follow-through from yesterday’s strong close. Weakness in the U.S. stock market, however, put a stop to the upward movement. April has overhead, trendline resistance near $89. Hogs Peoria: were     steady   at   34.5   to   35 Chicago Futures: Apr up 222 at 6230   Jun up 200 at 7505 Sheep St. Paul sheep shorn slaughter lambs   at   n/a   to   - - - Hogs Comment Hogs gapped higher today on strength from higher pork values. Packer margins are back in the black thanks to higher prices this week. USDA’s export projection capped gains at 719 million pounds below last year’s total. Today’s gap should provide solid support at $61.70. Poultry  Date: February 10, 2009 Eggs New York:  Ex. Lg. 100-104; Lg. 98-102; Med. 92-96; Chicago:  Ex. Lg. 97-105; Lg. 95-103; Med. 88-96; Eastern Region Turkeys Hens: 8-16 lbs. 72-75 Toms: 16-24 lbs. 72-75   Delmarva Broilers U.S. Grade A Trade sentiment was steady to about steady. Supplies of all sizes were sufficient for current trade needs. In production areas, live supplies were moderate at mixed, but mostly desirable weights. ---------------------------------------- HOW TO UNSUBSCRIBE You are receiving this newsletter because you requested that your e-mail address be added to the Arkansas Farm Bureau Market Report. To unsubscribe or change your subscription information, go to http://www.arfb.com/commodity_marketing/email/ ---------------------------------------- QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS? If you have any comments or questions about this e-newsletter please e-mail us at mktrpt@arfb.com Arkansas Farm Bureau 10720 Kanis Road Little Rock, AR 72211 501-224-4400 Copyright 2009 Arkansas Farm Bureau, Inc. All rights reserved Terms of Use