12/19/2008 Farm Bureau Market Report

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Grain & Soybean Date: December 19, 2008 Soybeans Local Elevators: (Dec) EAST AR:  845 to 868 (NC) Summ. 851 to - - - River Elevators: (Dec) MISS: 863 to 893 ; AR & White 851 to 866 (NC) Summ. 851 to 893 Ark. Processor Bids: (Dec) 838 to 868  (NC) 838 to 860 Memphis:  (Dec) 463 1/4 to - - - (NC)  814 to 829 Riceland Foods:  (Dec) Stuttgart 868 ; Pendleton 868 ; West Memphis 893 Chicago Futures: Jan '09 down 1 1/4 at  868 1/4   Mar '09  down  2  at  872 1/2   May '09 down 2 1/4  at  883 3/4   Jul '09 down 2 1/4  at  895   Nov '09 down 3 1/4  at  899   Today's Arkansas LDP rate for soybeans is: 0¢ Soybean Comment Soybean prices fold under pressure and posted slight losses today. While soybeans have fought to stay in positive territory all week despite declines in the crude oil market, profit taking before the weekend caused prices to fall slightly today. The fundamentals for soybeans are still relatively strong compared to other crops. Soybeans will likely see prices strengthen in the coming weeks as the acreage battle gets underway as the current differential of 2.1 favors corn. Corn prices continue to decline. Weak crude oil price continue to pressure corn prices. As declining crude oil prices have gas futures at less than $1 per gallon, making it difficult for ethanol to compete. Ethanol is currently trading at a 51 cent premium to gasoline (Note: January 1, 2009 the tax credit declines from 51-cents to 45-cents). If gasoline prices continue to decline we could see additional cuts in corn used for ethanol down to the Renewal Fuel Standard levels - about 3.5 billion bushels. While crude oil prices will dominate corn price movements in the near term, in the coming week we should start to see the acreage battle between corn and soybean which will support prices. Wheat Cash bid for December at Memphis  463 1/4 to - - -; Bids to farmers at Local Elevators 458-473; River Elevators 470-508; Chicago Futures: Mar '09 down  8 1/4  at  563 1/4    May '09 down 8 1/4  at  576    Jul '09 down  8 3/4  at  587 3/4    Sep '09 down  8 1/2  at  608 3/4    Dec '09 down  8 1/2  at  630 1/4    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for wheat is: 0¢ Grain Sorghum Cash bid for December at Memphis  519 to - - -; Bids to farmers at River Elevators 394-475; Today's Arkansas LDP rate for sorghum is: 0¢ Corn Cash bid for December at Memphis   360 3/4 to 365 3/4;   new crop at Memphis   361 to - - -; Bids to farmers at River Elevators  316 to 356 Chicago Futures: Mar '09 down  8 3/4  at  380 3/4    May '09 down  9 1/4  at  391    Sep '09 down  10  at  411    Dec '09 down  9 3/4  at  425    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for corn is: 0¢ Grain Comment Weak global demand finally catches up with wheat price causing them to close lower. Wheat prices had been hoping the weak dollar would increase demand for U.S. wheat. However, when that fell through there was still hope adverse weather conditions had many thinking a winter kill is possible given the freezing temperatures, but that appears to be over blown according to Kansas State agronomist. July wheat prices will need to find additional bullish news if it hopes to maintain gains over the last couple of weeks. Cotton & Rice  Date: December 19, 2008 Cotton Spot Price, Grade 41 Staple 34: Memphis down 5 at  4223   Greenwood down  5 at 4223 New York Futures: Mar '09 down  18  at  4510    May '09 down  10  at  4577    Jul '09 down  5  at  4695    Dec '09 down  13  at  5135    - - -   - - -  at  - - -  This week's LDP rate for cotton is  15.83 cents   The estimate for next week is  15.14 cents Cotton Comment December cotton did not even make a run at breaking through the 52-cent level today. Prices traded down all day. With the dollar index appearing to have bottomed out, hopes of improving cotton shipment during the second half of the year may be gone. Given the global economic outlook, cotton prices will have a difficult time finding strength for upward movement. Rice Long Grain Cash Bid for  n/a - - -  to  - - -   n/a - - -  to  - - - Chicago Futures: Jan '09 down  11 1/2  at  1488 1/2    Mar '09 down  16  at  1471 1/2    May '09 down  16  at  1487 1/2    Jul '09 down  15 1/2  at  1501    - - -   - - -  at  - - -  Today's Arkansas LDP rate for long grain rice is  0¢ medium grain rice is  0¢ Rice Comment Rice prices continued their decline again today. Overall fundamentals remain somewhat negative as U.S milled rice exports, which make up about 2/3 of U.S. rice exports, are extremely slow. Many mills face a restricted milling schedule if new sales don’t surface soon. U.S. milled rice exports are slow because U.S. rice is at a big premium compared to other exporters. Cattle & Hogs  Date: December 19, 2008 Cattle As reported by Federal-State Market News, receipts were 4,330 head at sales in Arkansas this week.  Compared with last week, feeder steers sold firm to $5 higher . Steers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 84.75 to - - -   500 to 550 lbs. 87.25 to - - -   600 to 650 lbs. 84.75 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 87.75 to - - - Heifers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 84.75 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 78 to - - - Slaughter Cows, Boners 37   to   44 Light Weight 24 to 28 Bulls, Yield Grade   1   1000   to   2100 lbs.   48   to   55, high dressing $55-57 Midwest Steers   remained   at   84   to   - - - Panhandle Steers   were $3-2 higher   at   85   to   - - - Oklahoma City Feeders Steers 500 to 550 lbs. 85 to 105.50   600 to 650 lbs. 81 to 96.50 Heifers 500 to 550 lbs. 75 to 90   600 to 650 lbs. 77 to 89.50 Chicago Futures: Live Cattle: Feb '09 up 107 at 8677   Apr '09 up 82 at 8920 Feeders: Jan '09 up 110 at 9350   May '09 up 180 at 9510 Cattle Comment Cattle prices recovered from yesterday's declines. Concerns about the weather and speculation that this afternoon’s cattle on feed report will show lower feed lot placing provided support. Hogs Peoria: were     steady   at   36.50   to   - - - Chicago Futures: Feb '09 down 77 at 6170   Apr '09 down 20 at 6945 Sheep St. Paul sheep shorn slaughter lambs   at   n/a   to   - - - Hogs Comment Lean hogs closed the day down. Losses were limited by concerns of reduced hog numbers. Poultry  Date: December 19, 2008 Eggs New York:  Ex. Lg. 127-131; Lg. 125-129; Med. 91-95; Chicago:  Ex. Lg. 111-119; Lg. 109-117; Med. 81-89; Eastern Region Turkeys Hens: 8-16 lbs. 69-76 Toms: 16-24 lbs. 69-76   Delmarva Broilers U.S. Grade A Trade sentiment was steady. Pre-holiday demand entering the weekend was seasonally light to fair with trading usually limited to regular commitments. Supplies of all sizes were sufficient to satisfy light trade needs. In production areas, live supplies were moderate at mixed, but mostly desirable weights. ---------------------------------------- HOW TO UNSUBSCRIBE You are receiving this newsletter because you requested that your e-mail address be added to the Arkansas Farm Bureau Market Report. To unsubscribe or change your subscription information, go to http://www.arfb.com/commodity_marketing/email/ ---------------------------------------- QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS? If you have any comments or questions about this e-newsletter please e-mail us at mktrpt@arfb.com Arkansas Farm Bureau 10720 Kanis Road Little Rock, AR 72211 501-224-4400 Copyright 2008 Arkansas Farm Bureau, Inc. All rights reserved Terms of Use