02/11/2008 Farm Bureau Market Report

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Grain & Soybean Date: February 11, 2008 Soybeans Local Elevators: (Feb) EAST AR:  1270 to 1292 (NC) Summ. 1192 to 1224 River Elevators: (Feb) MISS: 1261 to 1315 ; AR & White 1277 to 1283 (NC) Summ. 1191 to 1227 Ark. Processor Bids: (Feb) 1255 to 1286  (NC) 1215 to 1217 Memphis:  (Feb) 1307 to 1311 (NC)  1212 to 1222 Riceland Foods:  (NC) Stuttgart 1286 ; Pendleton 1292 ; West Memphis 1315 Chicago Futures: Mar down 13 at  1326   May  down  13  at  1345 1/2   Jul down 13 1/4  at  1354 1/2   Nov down 3  at  1282   Nov '09 unchanged   at  1220   Today's Arkansas LDP rate for soybeans is: 0¢ Soybean Comment Soybeans lost ground today, but crop declines were minimal. The market has a very top heavy look after failing to hold several big upturns last week. Wednesday’s key reversal down on the November contract remains valid. Index funds are maintaining big positions, but could bail if the market shows potential follow through to the downside. The key will be ’08 planting intentions which won’t be released until the end of March. Wheat Cash bid for new crop at Memphis  874 to 879; Bids to farmers at Local Elevators 859-881; River Elevators 861-884; Chicago Futures: Mar down  45  at  1048    May down 24 3/4  at  1085    Jul down  4 1/2  at  979    Sep down  1 1/2  at  987    Jul '09 down  6 1/2  at  904    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for wheat is: 0¢ Grain Sorghum Cash bid for February at Memphis  885 to 899; Bids to farmers at River Elevators 805-868; Today's Arkansas LDP rate for sorghum is: 0¢ Corn Cash bid for February at Memphis   494 1/2 to 496 1/2;   new crop at Memphis   488 to 493; Bids to farmers at River Elevators  467 to 494 Chicago Futures: Mar down  4 1/2  at  503 1/2    May down  4 1/4  at  516 3/4    Sep down  4  at  526    Dec down  4 3/4  at  525 1/4    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for corn is: 0¢ Grain Comment Wheat futures charted a bearish key reversal in both old and new crop futures. USDA raised the export projection by 25 million bushels in Friday’s report. Wheat feed usage was trimmed by 5 million, with a net result of a 20 million bushel cut in the ending stocks estimate. This was expected, but the funds drove the market limit up anyway in light of the ever tightening world stocks situation. However, it is likely that the bullish fundamentals are more than built in to current prices. This could be the signal that the winter high has now been charted. Cotton & Rice  Date: February 11, 2008 Cotton Spot Price, Grade 41 Staple 34: Memphis down 168 at  6266   Greenwood down  168 at 6266 New York Futures: Mar down  189  at  6720    May down  182  at  6900    Jul down  190  at  7076    Dec down  174  at  7577    Mar '09 down  165  at  7945  This week's LDP rate for cotton is  0 cents   The estimate for next week is  0 cents Cotton Comment Cotton was mostly lower as the reaction to Friday’s National Cotton Council planting intentions report was less than positive. The report showed an 11.8% decline dropping ’08 plantings to 9.55 million acres. This compares to 10.83 in ’07. Mid-south plantings were down 25.5 % with Arkansas, Mississippi and Tennessee down almost 30%. In Arkansas, plantings were projected 605,000 acres down almost 50% from the 1.17 million acres in 2006. But poor exports led USDA to reduce their projection by 300,000 bales and raise ending stocks the same amount to 8.2 million bales. Upside for old crop will be tough, but at some point a potentially smaller ’08 crop will begin to boost values. Rice Long Grain Cash Bid for  Feb/Mar 1351/cwt  to  - - -   - - - - - -  to  - - - Chicago Futures: Mar down  14  at  1551    May down  11  at  1582    Jul down  21  at  1594    Sep down  2  at  1535    - - -   - - -  at  - - -  Today's Arkansas LDP rate for long grain rice is  0¢ medium grain rice is  0¢ Rice Comment Rice traded in a narrow range before closing lower. The market was pressured by the turnaround in wheat. Limits were expanded to 60 cents in all three exchanges allowing completion of the short squeeze in most contracts. Only the two front contracts in Minneapolis closed higher. This pressured rice and allowed for a little weaker undertone. The international market has been extremely firm with price levels in both Thailand and Vietnam exceeding $450 per tonne. Overall world and U.S. supplies are very tight. U.S. long grain stocks are projected to be just 10.7 million cwt and that compares with 28.5 to start the year. Recent price gains are drawing attention to rice and could be pushing plantings for ’08 higher. If you are planting based on today’s price levels – then lock in the price on some of your production. It offers excellent opportunities. While price moved higher it could tank and probably will if and when everything else does. Cattle & Hogs  Date: February 11, 2008 Cattle As reported by Federal-State Market News, receipts were 1,809 head at sales in Ola & Springdale.  Compared with last week, feeder steers sold $3-4 higher, heifers $4-9 higher . Steers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 124 to 134   500 to 550 lbs. 113 to 123   600 to 700 lbs. 100 to 110  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 117 to 127 Heifers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 105 to 115  Medium & Large Frame 2   350 to 400 lbs. 99 to 109 Slaughter Cows, Boners 49   to   53 Light Weight 37 to 41 Bulls, Yield Grade   1   1000   to   2100 lbs.   60   to   65, high dressing 65-68.50 Midwest Steers   were $4-2 higher   at   92   to   - - - Panhandle Steers   were $4-2 higher   at   92   to   - - - Oklahoma City Feeders Steers 500 to 550 lbs. 126 to 129   650 to 700 lbs. 107.50 to 114.75 Heifers 550 to 600 lbs. 97 to 109.75   600 to 650 lbs. 97 to 101.50 Chicago Futures: Live Cattle: Apr steady at 9510   Jun up 30 at 9445 Feeders: Mar up 87 at 10590   Aug up 75 at 11395 Cattle Comment Cattle futures were mostly higher. Wholesale beef prices have increased enough this week that packer margins are now estimated to be back in positive territory. Futures’ premium to cash prices limited the upside. Hogs Peoria: were $1     higher   at   34.5   to   35 Chicago Futures: Apr up 20 at 6507   Jun up 12 at 7867 Sheep St. Paul sheep shorn slaughter lambs   at   n/a   to   - - - Hogs Comment Hogs ended mixed. Weak packer margins and larger hog runs are expected to keep a lid on prices. Weakness in grain futures eased concerns of herd liquidation. Poultry  Date: February 11, 2008 Eggs New York:  Ex. Lg. 156-160; Lg. 154-158; Med. 138-142; Chicago:  Ex. Lg. 146-154; Lg. 144-152; Med. 130-138; Eastern Region Turkeys Hens: 8-16 lbs. 75-77 Toms: 16-24 lbs. 75-77   Delmarva Broilers U.S. Grade A Trade sentiment was fully steady to firm. Supplies of all sizes were well balanced to short and moving well. In production areas, live supplies were moderate at mostly desirable weights. ---------------------------------------- HOW TO UNSUBSCRIBE You are receiving this newsletter because you requested that your e-mail address be added to the Arkansas Farm Bureau Market Report. To unsubscribe or change your subscription information, go to http://www.arfb.com/commodity_marketing/email/ ---------------------------------------- QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS? If you have any comments or questions about this e-newsletter please e-mail us at mktrpt@arfb.com Arkansas Farm Bureau 10720 Kanis Road Little Rock, AR 72211 501-224-4400 Copyright 2008 Arkansas Farm Bureau, Inc. All rights reserved Terms of Use