10/20/2009 Farm Bureau Market Report

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Grain & Soybean Date: October 20, 2009 Soybeans Local Elevators: (Oct) EAST AR:  960 to 989 (NC) Summ. 982 to - - - River Elevators: (Oct) MISS: 997 to 1011 ; AR & White 959 to 969 (NC) Summ. 984 to 1031 Ark. Processor Bids: (Oct) 970 to 989  (NC) 1009 to Memphis:  (Oct) 1002 1/2 to 1009 1/2 (NC)  n/a to - - - Riceland Foods:  (Oct/Nov) Stuttgart 970 ; Pendleton 989 ; West Memphis 1006 Chicago Futures: Nov down 13 3/4 at  982 1/2   Jan '10  down  15 1/4  at  985 1/4   Mar '10 down 16 3/4  at  986 1/4   Jul '10 down 16 1/2  at  980 1/2   Nov '10 down 15 3/4  at  975   Today's Arkansas LDP rate for soybeans is: 0¢ Soybean Comment Soybeans gave back yesterday’s gains. Profit taking on long positions was a big part of the downward pressure today. USDA pegged the crop at just 30% harvested this week compared to a 5 year average of 72%. So the fundamentals are conflicting. On one hand you have a huge, possibly record-setting crop, but on the other the latest harvest in 30 years and the possible quality problems that come with it. Upside objectives near $10.20 and $10.66 remain viable, while support starts at $9.65 to $9.80. Corn futures gave back a little, but fared better than beans. The slow harvest is the biggest supportive factor. Private estimates suggest that 250 million bushels have been lost to frost—also supportive. December has resistance at the top of the chart gap at $3.96. Wheat Cash bid for October at Memphis  357 1/2 to 372 1/2; Bids to farmers at Local Elevators 429; River Elevators 490-513; Chicago Futures: Dec down  1/4  at  517 1/2    Mar '10 down 1  at  535 12    May '10 down  1/2  at  547 1/2    Jul '10 down  3/4  at  558    Sep '10 down  4 1/4  at  568 1/2    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for wheat is: 0¢ Grain Sorghum Cash bid for October at Memphis  669 to 687; Bids to farmers at River Elevators 589-664; Today's Arkansas LDP rate for sorghum is: 0¢ Corn Cash bid for October at Memphis   384 1/2 to - - -;   new crop at Memphis   347 3/4 to 387 3/4; Bids to farmers at River Elevators  361 to 381 Chicago Futures: Dec down  1 3/4  at  384 1/2    Mar '10 down  1 1/4  at  396 3/4    Jul '10 down  1 1/2  at  413    Dec '10 down  1 1/2  at  423 1/2    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for corn is: 0¢ Grain Comment Wheat is showing surprising strength holding above $5 in the face of bearish fundamentals. The market is oversold and wheat is heavily discounted against other commodities based upon historical relationships. Cotton & Rice  Date: October 20, 2009 Cotton Spot Price, Grade 41 Staple 34: Memphis up 101 at  6323   Greenwood up  101 at 6323 New York Futures: Dec up  76  at  6723    Mar '10 up  64  at  6961    May '10 up  62  at  7102    Jul '10 up  47  at  7239    - - -   - - -  at  - - -  This week's LDP rate for cotton is  2.56 cents   The estimate for next week is  .89 cents Cotton Comment Cotton turned higher today but traded with yesterday’s trading range. A smaller crop, harvest delays and potential quality problems are all providing underlying support, and more wet weather is on the way. Weak demand is limiting the upside. Rice Long Grain Cash Bid for  Oct/Nov 1247  to  1320/cwt   - - - - - -  to  - - - Chicago Futures: Nov down  30 1/2  at  1356 1/2    Jan '10 down  30 1/2  at  1381    Mar '10 down  30 1/2  at  1402 1/2    May '10 down  30 1/2  at  1426 1/2    - - -   - - -  at  - - -  Today's Arkansas LDP rate for long grain rice is  0¢ medium grain rice is  0¢ Rice Comment Rice posted sharp losses. Profit taking on long positions and carryover weakness from soybeans and corn tugged the market lower today. Combines were rolling this weekend, but more rain is in the forecast later this week. Given recent weather it would seem yield will be impacted along with quality. The international side of the market remains somewhat subdued. It should be noted that the recent Iraq tender went to sources other than the U.S. as they favored lowered prices over quality. Cattle & Hogs  Date: October 20, 2009 Cattle As reported by Federal-State Market News, receipts were 534 head at sales in Heber Springs.  Compared with last week, feeder steers n/a . Steers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 103.75 to - - -   500 to 550 lbs. 90 to - - -   600 to 650 lbs. 87 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 82.75 to - - - Heifers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 85.50 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 73.50 to - - - Slaughter Cows, Boners 40   to   44.50 Light Weight 27 to 32 Bulls, Yield Grade   1   1000   to   2100 lbs.   51   to   55.50, high dressing untested Midwest Steers   wer e$4.50-.1 higher   at   84.50   to   - - - Panhandle Steers   were $4.50-.50 higher   at   84.50   to   - - - Oklahoma City Feeders Steers 500 to 550 lbs. 104 to 113.50   600 to 650 lbs. 88 to 97 Heifers 500 to 550 lbs. 87 to 96.75   600 to 650 lbs. 80 to 88 Chicago Futures: Live Cattle: Dec down 30 at 8615   Feb '10 down 35 at 8650 Feeders: Nov down 32 at 9520   Jan '10 down 37 at 9565 Cattle Comment Cattle futures were under pressure today from cash market weakness and future’s premium to cash. Weakness in hogs was also a factor. Live December has upside objectives at the 50% retracement level of $87.13 and the 62% level of $87.98. Hogs Peoria: were     steady   at   27   to   29 Chicago Futures: Dec down 117 at 5287   Feb '10 down 107 at 5975 Sheep St. Paul sheep shorn slaughter lambs   at   n/a   to   - - - Hogs Comment Hogs turned solidly lower on news that H1N1 was confirmed in hogs at the Minnesota state fair. Weak cash fundamentals are also a factor. December charted a bearish key reversal and could work toward support below $48. Poultry  Date: October 20, 2009 Eggs New York:  Ex. Lg. 103-107; Lg. 101-105; Med. 81-85; Chicago:  Ex. Lg. 88-96; Lg. 86-94; Med. 75-83; Eastern Region Turkeys Hens: 8-16 lbs. 80-85 Toms: 16-24 lbs. 80-85   Delmarva Broilers U.S. Grade A The market tone was steady. Demand was fair to moderate with light trading. Supplies of all sizes were sufficient to satisfy current trade needs. In production areas live supplies were moderate; at mixed, but mostly desirable weights. ---------------------------------------- HOW TO UNSUBSCRIBE You are receiving this newsletter because you requested that your e-mail address be added to the Arkansas Farm Bureau Market Report. To unsubscribe or change your subscription information, go to http://www.arfb.com/commodity_marketing/email/ ---------------------------------------- QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS? If you have any comments or questions about this e-newsletter please e-mail us at mktrpt@arfb.com Arkansas Farm Bureau 10720 Kanis Road Little Rock, AR 72211 501-224-4400 Copyright 2009 Arkansas Farm Bureau, Inc. All rights reserved Terms of Use