10/13/2009 Farm Bureau Market Report

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Grain & Soybean Date: October 13, 2009 Soybeans Local Elevators: (Oct) EAST AR:  973 to 991 (NC) Summ. 979 to - - - River Elevators: (Oct) MISS: 1003 to 1018 ; AR & White 972 to 982 (NC) Summ. 997 to 1026 Ark. Processor Bids: (Oct) 982 to 985  (NC) 1008 to - - - Memphis:  (Oct) 1008 to 1018 (NC)  n/a to - - - Riceland Foods:  (Oct/Nov) Stuttgart 985 ; Pendleton 995 ; West Memphis 1013 Chicago Futures: Nov down 6 at  993   Jan '10  down  4 1/4  at  995 3/4   Mar '10 down 5 1/4  at  995 1/4   Jul '10 down 6 1/2  at  986 1/2   Nov '10 down 3 3/4  at  975 1/4   Today's Arkansas LDP rate for soybeans is: 0¢ Soybean Comment Soybeans moved above $10 before retracing a portion of the $1.25 gains of the last 6 days. It is not uncommon to see a market back track as traders take profits. Drier weather in the western cornbelt is a welcomed event. However, it will take a while for high moisture crops to dry down in the field. In the mid-South, extended forecasts show rain thru Thursday and then some sun. Harvest will be a long drawn out process and the market may have already taken that into consideration. Resistance at $10.20 and $10.66 are the next potential upside targets. A downturn should have support between $9.80 and $9.65. Corn held small gains after pushing up to the 50% retracement objective, just below $3.90. The weekend freeze and snow stopped crop development and the question is how much damage was done. Like beans, this market is subject to profit taking in the short term. Support starts at $3.75 and then $3.50. Wheat Cash bid for October at Memphis  351 1/4 to 366 1/4; Bids to farmers at Local Elevators 426; River Elevators 487-510; Chicago Futures: Dec up  17  at  511 1/4    Mar '10 up 17  at  530 1/4    May '10 up  16 3/4  at  543    Jul '10 up  15 1/2  at  555 1/2    Sep '10 up  16 1/4  at  570    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for wheat is: 0¢ Grain Sorghum Cash bid for October at Memphis  664 to 676; Bids to farmers at River Elevators 586-661; Today's Arkansas LDP rate for sorghum is: 0¢ Corn Cash bid for October at Memphis   384 3/4 to 385 3/4;   new crop at Memphis   343 3/4 to 383 3/4; Bids to farmers at River Elevators  364 to 381 Chicago Futures: Dec up  1/2  at  381 3/4    Mar '10 up  1/4  at  393 1/4    Jul '10 up  1/2  at  408 1/4    Dec '10 unchanged    at  419 1/2    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for corn is: 0¢ Grain Comment Wheat posted strong gains again today, but there isn’t much fundamental justification for the rally. Friday’s USDA report added additional bearish news, as wheat stocks were increased to 888 million bushels. The market is oversold, however, and wheat is heavily discounted against other commodities based upon historical relationships. It is possible that bearish fundamentals are fully factored in to prices at this level. December’s close above $5 opens the market to test resistance around $5.15. Cotton & Rice  Date: October 13, 2009 Cotton Spot Price, Grade 41 Staple 34: Memphis up 286 at  6163   Greenwood up  286 at 6163 New York Futures: Dec down  343  at  6125    Mar '10 down  495  at  6225    May '10 down  932  at  5900    Jul '10 down  649  at  6293    - - -   - - -  at  - - -  This week's LDP rate for cotton is  4.66 cents   The estimate for next week is  3.32 cents Cotton Comment Cotton continued to move higher with December penetrating resistance and closing just under 66 cents. Technically, this was positive and suggests a possible move toward the 62% retracement objective of 70.5 cents on the weekly chart. Last week’s report lowered the ’09 production number, domestic use and ending stocks. It didn’t take into account the probable losses that have been lost to weather over the first half of October. While demand hasn’t improved stocks will tighten. Delays in harvest are going to result in further deterioration of this year’s crop. Rice Long Grain Cash Bid for  Oct/Nov 1300/cwt  to  - - -   - - - - - -  to  - - - Chicago Futures: Nov down  10 1/2  at  1390    Jan '10 down  10 1/2  at  1415 1/2    Mar '10 down  11  at  1440    May '10 down  10  at  1463    - - -   - - -  at  - - -  Today's Arkansas LDP rate for long grain rice is  0¢ medium grain rice is  0¢ Rice Comment Rice was higher again today with November briefly trading above $14. That brings the recent high at $14.25 into play. On the international side the market remains somewhat subdued. It should be noted that the recent Iraq tender went to sources other than the U.S. as they favored lowered prices over quality. Last week’s USDA report raised production estimates in almost all areas except Arkansas. Arkansas's yield was unchanged, given recent weather it would seem yield will be impacted along with quality. Harvest activity remains well behind and it doesn’t look like there will be much happening this week. Cattle & Hogs  Date: October 13, 2009 Cattle As reported by Federal-State Market News, receipts were 2,519 head at sales in Fort Smith, Ash Flat & Ola.  Compared with last week, feeder steers sold weak to $4 lower . Steers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 105.75 to - - -   500 to 550 lbs. 94 to - - -   600 to 650 lbs. 88.50 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 79.50 to - - - Heifers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 88.25 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 79.50 to - - - Slaughter Cows, Boners 37   to   43 Light Weight 31 to 34 Bulls, Yield Grade   1   1000   to   2100 lbs.   50   to   55.50, high dressing 55.50-60 Midwest Steers   were $2 lower to $1 higher   at   81   to   - - - Panhandle Steers   were steady to $1 lower   at   81   to   - - - Oklahoma City Feeders Steers 500 to 550 lbs. 106 to 113.85   600 to 650 lbs. 95 to 100 Heifers 500 to 550 lbs. 89.50 to 99   n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - - Chicago Futures: Live Cattle: Dec down 62 at 8467   Feb down 72 at 8547 Feeders: Nov down 105 at 9312   Jan down 100 at 9402 Cattle Comment Cattle futures ended lower. Packers are currently losing about $25 per head due to poor demand. High unemployment and cheap pork are preventing retail prices from moving higher. Hogs Peoria: were     steady   at   27   to   29 Chicago Futures: Dec down 15 at 5367   Feb down 32 at 5920 Sheep St. Paul sheep shorn slaughter lambs   at   n/a   to   - - - Hogs Comment Hog prices continue to have difficulty moving higher, but continue to consolidate in a range between 48 and 52. Hog prices continue to be under pressure from weak cash fundamentals. The weaker dollar is sparking optimism that export demand will improve. Poultry  Date: October 13, 2009 Eggs New York:  Ex. Lg. 99-103; Lg. 97-101; Med. 76-80; Chicago:  Ex. Lg. 86-94; Lg. 84-92; Med. 72-80; Eastern Region Turkeys Hens: 8-16 lbs. 80-85 Toms: 16-24 lbs. 80-85   Delmarva Broilers U.S. Grade A The market tone was steady to about steady. Supplies of all sizes were moderate to satisfy current trade needs. In production areas, live supplies were moderate at desirable to heavy weights. ---------------------------------------- HOW TO UNSUBSCRIBE You are receiving this newsletter because you requested that your e-mail address be added to the Arkansas Farm Bureau Market Report. To unsubscribe or change your subscription information, go to http://www.arfb.com/commodity_marketing/email/ ---------------------------------------- QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS? If you have any comments or questions about this e-newsletter please e-mail us at mktrpt@arfb.com Arkansas Farm Bureau 10720 Kanis Road Little Rock, AR 72211 501-224-4400 Copyright 2009 Arkansas Farm Bureau, Inc. All rights reserved Terms of Use