07/13/2009 Farm Bureau Market Report

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Grain & Soybean Date: July 13, 2009 Soybeans Local Elevators: (Jul) EAST AR:  1059 to - - - (NC) Summ. 870 to 880 River Elevators: (Jul) MISS: 941 to 1049 ; AR & White 911 to 921 (NC) Summ. 870 to 907 Ark. Processor Bids: (Jul) n/a to - - -  (NC) 877 to 886 Memphis:  (Jul) 1064 1/2 to - - - (NC)  911 1/2 to 913 1/2 Riceland Foods:  (Jul) Stuttgart 880 ; Pendleton 884 ; West Memphis 907 Chicago Futures: Sep down 16 1/4 at  955 1/2   Nov  down  5 1/2  at  911 1/2   Jan '10 down 6  at  919 1/2   Mar '10 down 6 3/4  at  922 1/2   Jul '10 down 5  at  923   Today's Arkansas LDP rate for soybeans is: 0¢ Soybean Comment Soybeans were lower with old crop contracts leading the way. The crop in the Midwest is in great shape, and that is keeping a lid on prices. Long term bigger soybean ending stocks are expected to push the market lower. USDA didn’t adjust their 08/09 stocks projected even after the larger than expected quarterly stocks. Next year’s stocks are projected at just 250 million bushels, but most expect numbers to rise. A move by November below $8.82 would be very negative, as it looks like this market is forming a bear flag. Corn closed higher after trading lower early in the day. Long term the market points lower, but it remains technically oversold which could mean a short term bounce. Support begins at Friday’s low of $3.28 ½. Wheat Cash bid for July at Memphis  436 3/4 to 452 3/4; Bids to farmers at Local Elevators 401-423; River Elevators 382-443; Chicago Futures: Sep up  24  at  542 3/4    Dec up 23 3/4  at  569    Mar '10 up  23 3/4  at  587    May '10 up  23 3/4  at  598    Jul '10 up  23  at  607    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for wheat is: 0¢ Grain Sorghum Cash bid for July at Memphis  499 to - - -; Bids to farmers at River Elevators 398-479; Today's Arkansas LDP rate for sorghum is: 0¢ Corn Cash bid for July at Memphis   321 3/4 to 336 3/4;   new crop at Memphis   321 3/4 to 323 3/4; Bids to farmers at River Elevators  310 to 335 Chicago Futures: Sep up  3 1/2  at  331 3/4    Dec up  1 1/2  at  339 1/2    Mar '10 up  1 1/4  at  352 1/2    Jul '10 up  3/4  at  370    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for corn is: 0¢ Grain Comment Wheat futures posted sharp gains today, with little fundamental justification. USDA raised the 09-10 production estimate to 2.112 billion bushels and carryout to 706 million bushels in Friday’s report. They only lowered their on-farm price estimate by a dime, however, suggesting that the negative fundamentals are mostly built into prices at this point. The soybean/wheat and corn/wheat spread is historically wide at this point as well, and should start to narrow as prospects for large crops keep the other markets under pressure. Cotton & Rice  Date: July 13, 2009 Cotton Spot Price, Grade 41 Staple 34: Memphis up 57 at  5596   Greenwood up  57 at 5596 New York Futures: Oct up  57  at  6096    Dec up  21  at  6266    Mar '10 down  3  at  6467    May '10 down  15  at  6579    - - -   - - -  at  - - -  This week's LDP rate for cotton is  5.27 cents   The estimate for next week is  4.14 cents Cotton Comment Cotton closed with solid gains after breaking trendline resistance yesterday. Good followthrough on that gain suggests a retest of resistance at the recent December contract high of 63.75 cents. USDA left yield and harvested acres unchanged from the June report, but adjusted 08/09 ending stocks downward to 6 million bales. Reduced exports for 09/10 left projected ending stocks at 5.6 million bales. Only minor adjustments were made in world numbers. Rice Long Grain Cash Bid for  Jul 1289/cwt  to  - - -   - - - - - -  to  - - - Chicago Futures: Sep up  4  at  1306    Nov up  6  at  1313    Jan '10 up  6 1/2  at  1327    Mar '10 up  1 1/2  at  1341    - - -   - - -  at  - - -  Today's Arkansas LDP rate for long grain rice is  0¢ medium grain rice is  0¢ Rice Comment New crop rice was higher again today after USDA projected a decline in long grain production of 18 million cwt. Use was left nearly the same, but end results were projected ending stocks of just 11.8 million cwt. In old crop 08/09 USDA raised ending stocks by 2.5 million cwt. Medium grain production was raised as a result of increased ’09 plantings. World numbers were essentially unchanged. September futures have moved back above $13. Long term charts have resistance at $13.40, and then there isn’t much on the charts until $15.60. Cattle & Hogs  Date: July 13, 2009 Cattle As reported by Federal-State Market News, receipts were 4,077 head at sales in Ash Flat, Springdale & Ola.  Compared with last week, feeder steers sold steady to $2 lower . Steers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 105.50 to - - -   500 to 550 lbs. 98 to - - -   600 to 650 lbs. 96.75 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 95.25 to - - - Heifers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 91.50 to - - -  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 86.50 to - - - Slaughter Cows, Boners 44   to   51.50 Light Weight 34 to 40 Bulls, Yield Grade   1   1000   to   2100 lbs.   56   to   62, high dressing 62-69 Midwest Steers   were $2 lower to $1 higher   at   80   to   83 Panhandle Steers   were steady to $.50 higher   at   82   to   82.50 Oklahoma City Feeders Steers n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - -   n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - - Heifers n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - -   n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - - Chicago Futures: Live Cattle: Aug up 130 at 8477   Oct up 160 at 9025 Feeders: Aug up 87 at 10380   Sep up 100 at 10422 Cattle Comment Cattle futures posted solid gains today. Active movement last week has traders expecting tighter supplies of market-ready cattle this week. Lower corn prices have helped give feeders a boost. Hogs Peoria: were     steady   at   33   to   35 Chicago Futures: Aug down 60 at 6300   Oct up 15 at 5880 Sheep St. Paul sheep shorn slaughter lambs   at   n/a   to   - - - Hogs Comment Hog futures were mostly lower. Nearby contracts were lower on profit taking, while deferreds were pressured by ideas that lower corn prices will curb herd liquidation. Poultry  Date: July 13, 2009 Eggs New York:  Ex. Lg. 81-85; Lg. 79-83; Med. 58-62; Chicago:  Ex. Lg. 68-76; Lg. 66-74; Med. 49-57; Eastern Region Turkeys Hens: 8-16 lbs. 82-84 Toms: 16-24 lbs. 82-84   Delmarva Broilers U.S. Grade A Trade sentiment was barely steady to instances weak. Demand following the weekend was light to fair with limited trading. Supplies of all sizes were readily available to satisfy current trade needs. In production areas, live supplies were moderate at mixed, but mostly desirable weights. ---------------------------------------- HOW TO UNSUBSCRIBE You are receiving this newsletter because you requested that your e-mail address be added to the Arkansas Farm Bureau Market Report. To unsubscribe or change your subscription information, go to http://www.arfb.com/commodity_marketing/email/ ---------------------------------------- QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS? If you have any comments or questions about this e-newsletter please e-mail us at mktrpt@arfb.com Arkansas Farm Bureau 10720 Kanis Road Little Rock, AR 72211 501-224-4400 Copyright 2009 Arkansas Farm Bureau, Inc. All rights reserved Terms of Use