07/10/2009 Farm Bureau Market Report

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Grain & Soybean Date: July 10, 2009 Soybeans Local Elevators: (Jul) EAST AR:  1105 to - - - (NC) Summ. 875 to 885 River Elevators: (Jul) MISS: 947 to 1075 ; AR & White 917 to 927 (NC) Summ. 875 to 912 Ark. Processor Bids: (Jul) n/a to - - -  (NC) 882 to 885 Memphis:  (Jul) 1114 3/4 to - - - (NC)  917 to 919 Riceland Foods:  (Jul) Stuttgart n/a ; Pendleton n/a ; West Memphis n/a Chicago Futures: Sep down 1 1/4 at  971 3/4   Nov  up  1  at  917   Jan '10 up 1 3/4  at  925 1/2   Mar '10 up 2 3/4  at  929 1/4   Jul '10 up 9 1/2  at  928   Today's Arkansas LDP rate for soybeans is: 0¢ Soybean Comment Soybeans rebounded from early losses to close mixed. November futures ended the week on a positive note by holding yesterday’s gains. Long term bigger soybean ending stocks are expected to push the market lower. USDA didn’t adjust their 08/09 stocks projected even after the larger than expected quarterly stocks. Next year’s stocks are projected at just 250 million bushels, but most expect numbers to rise. Corn closed mixed, which was a good showing, considering the additional 170 million bushels which were added to the 08/09 ending stocks projection. Biggest surprise was USDA’s failure to adjust projected yields higher in light of current crop progress reports. Many expected yield to be increased 2 or 3 bushels per acre. Even with a yield adjustment, projected production was raised 355 million bushels to 12.29 billion. 09/10 ending stocks were 1.55 billion bushels. If yield were to rise 3 bushels per acre it would add almost 250 million bushels to production. Long term the market points lower, but it remains technically oversold which could mean a short term bounce. Wheat Cash bid for July at Memphis  413 3/4 to 418 3/4; Bids to farmers at Local Elevators 377-399; River Elevators 358-416; Chicago Futures: Sep down  3 1/2  at  518 3/4    Dec down 3 1/4  at  545 1/4    Mar '10 down  2 3/4  at  563 1/4    May '10 down  3 1/4  at  574 1/4    Jul '10 down  4 1/4  at  584    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for wheat is: 0¢ Grain Sorghum Cash bid for July at Memphis  496 to - - -; Bids to farmers at River Elevators 396-476; Today's Arkansas LDP rate for sorghum is: 0¢ Corn Cash bid for July at Memphis   316 1/4 to 333 1/4;   new crop at Memphis   316 1/4 to 318 1/4; Bids to farmers at River Elevators  302 to 327 Chicago Futures: Sep down  1 1/4  at  328 1/4    Dec down  2  at  338    Mar '10 down  2  at  351 1/4    Jul '10 down  1 1/2  at  369 1/4    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for corn is: 0¢ Grain Comment Wheat futures turned lower today in reaction to USDA’s supply/demand report. USDA raised the 09-10 production estimate to 2.112 billion bushels and carryout to 706 million bushels. They only lowered their on-farm price estimate by a dime, however, suggesting that the negative fundamentals are mostly built into prices at this point. The soybean/wheat and corn/wheat spread is historically wide at this point as well, and should start to narrow as prospects for large crops keep the other markets under pressure. Cotton & Rice  Date: July 10, 2009 Cotton Spot Price, Grade 41 Staple 34: Memphis up 364 at  5539   Greenwood up  364 at 5539 New York Futures: Oct up  128  at  6039    Dec up  132  at  6245    Mar '10 up  110  at  6470    May '10 up  96  at  6594    - - -   - - -  at  - - -  This week's LDP rate for cotton is  5.27 cents   The estimate for next week is  4.77 cents Cotton Comment Cotton closed with solid gains after breaking trendline resistance yesterday. Good followthrough on that gain suggests a retest of resistance at the recent December contract high of 63.75 cents. USDA left yield and harvested acres unchanged from the June report, but adjusted 08/09 ending stocks downward to 6 million bales. Reduced exports for 09/10 left projected ending stocks at 5.6 million bales. Only minor adjustments were made in world numbers. Rice Long Grain Cash Bid for  n/a - - -  to  - - -   n/a - - -  to  - - - Chicago Futures: Sep up  34 1/2  at  1302    Nov up  35  at  1307    Jan '10 up  34  at  1320 1/2    Mar '10 up  39 1/2  at  1339 1/2    - - -   - - -  at  - - -  Today's Arkansas LDP rate for long grain rice is  0¢ medium grain rice is  0¢ Rice Comment USDA gave rice a good boost with confirmation of unexpected decline in long grain production, of 18 million cwt. Use was left nearly the same, but end results were projected ending stocks of just 11.8 million cwt. In old crop 08/09 USDA raised ending stocks by 2.5 million cwt. Medium grain production was raised as a result of increased ’09 plantings. World numbers were essentially unchanged. September futures made a big early push above $13, but settled just above that level. Long term charts have resistance at $13.40, and then there isn’t much on the charts until $15.60. Cattle & Hogs  Date: July 10, 2009 Cattle As reported by Federal-State Market News, receipts were 8,824 head at sales in Arkansas this week.  Compared with last week, feeder steers sold unevenly, mostly steady to to $4 higher. Feeder heifers sold steady to $2 higher . Steers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 100 to 115, weighted average price 107.79   500 to 550 lbs. 93 to 110   600 to 650 lbs. 91 to 105.25, weighted average 98.25  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 91 to 105 Heifers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 84 to 103, weighted average price 94.50  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. n/a to - - - Slaughter Cows, Boners 44   to   50 Light Weight 31 to 37 Bulls, Yield Grade   1   1000   to   2100 lbs.   53   to   60 Midwest Steers   were $2-1 higher   at   82   to   - - - Panhandle Steers   were $2 higher to steady   at   82   to   - - - Oklahoma City Feeders Steers 500 to 550 lbs. 102 to 116.50   600 to 650 lbs. 95 to 108 Heifers 500 to 550 lbs. 93 to 104.75   600 to 650 lbs. 90.50 to 102.00 Chicago Futures: Live Cattle: Aug steady at 8347   Oct down 17 at 8865 Feeders: Aug down 2 at 10292   Sep down 7 at 10322 Cattle Comment Cattle prices turned mostly lower to end the week. Supply concerns combined with lack luster demand continue to make it difficult for prices to maintain any type of rally. Support at around 82.50 for August. Hogs Peoria: were     steady   at   35   to   - - - Chicago Futures: Aug down 10 at 6360   Oct down 32 at 5865 Sheep St. Paul sheep shorn slaughter lambs   at   n/a   to   - - - Hogs Comment Hog futures turned lower today after failing to challenge resistance at the chart gap between $64.75 and $65.65. Profit taking after recent gains added pressure. Poultry  Date: July 10, 2009 Eggs New York:  Ex. Lg. 79-83; Lg. 77-81; Med. 58-62; Chicago:  Ex. Lg. 60-68; Lg. 58-66; Med. 49-57; Eastern Region Turkeys Hens: 8-16 lbs. 82-84 Toms: 16-24 lbs. 82-84   Delmarva Broilers U.S. Grade A Trade sentiment was about steady to at times barely steady. Demand entering the weekend was light to fair with trading usually limited to regular commitment. Supplies of all sizes were fully sufficient to long to satisfy current trade needs. In production areas, live supplies were moderate at mixed, but mostly desirable weights. ---------------------------------------- HOW TO UNSUBSCRIBE You are receiving this newsletter because you requested that your e-mail address be added to the Arkansas Farm Bureau Market Report. To unsubscribe or change your subscription information, go to http://www.arfb.com/commodity_marketing/email/ ---------------------------------------- QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS? If you have any comments or questions about this e-newsletter please e-mail us at mktrpt@arfb.com Arkansas Farm Bureau 10720 Kanis Road Little Rock, AR 72211 501-224-4400 Copyright 2009 Arkansas Farm Bureau, Inc. All rights reserved Terms of Use