01/17/2008 Farm Bureau Market Report

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Grain & Soybean Date: January 17, 2008 Soybeans Local Elevators: (Jan) EAST AR:  1184 to 1206 (NC) Summ. 1180 to 1212 River Elevators: (Jan) MISS: 1196 to 1240 ; AR & White 1196 to 1212 (NC) Summ. 1185 to 1215 Ark. Processor Bids: (Jan) 1197 to 1200  (NC) 1203 to 1205 Memphis:  (Jan) 1226 to 1236 (NC)  1210 to - - - Riceland Foods:  (NC) Stuttgart 1200 ; Pendleton 1216 ; West Memphis 1239 Chicago Futures: Mar down 6 at  1271   May  down  5 1/2  at  1291   Jul down 8 3/4  at  1305 1/2   Nov '08 down 4  at  1270   Nov '09 down 4  at  1246   Today's Arkansas LDP rate for soybeans is: 0¢ Soybean Comment Soybeans closed lower for the second day in a row. Early gains pushed November above $13 and to a new contract high. The market then saw a steady erosion which ended the day on the negative side. The market appears to be in a consolidation phase which might continue for a few days. Export numbers were anything but negative and indicate price has not started the job of rationing tight supplies. Closing of last Friday’s report gap at $11.94 would be the first sign of the market topping. Wheat Cash bid for new crop at Memphis  764 to 769; Bids to farmers at Local Elevators 744-766; River Elevators 746-769; Chicago Futures: Mar up  14  at  940 1/2    May up 15 1/2  at  956 1/2    Jul '08 up  12 1/2  at  864    Sep up  15 3/4  at  872 3/4    Jul '09 up  18 1/4  at  851 1/4    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for wheat is: 0¢ Grain Sorghum Cash bid for January at Memphis  930 to 932; Bids to farmers at River Elevators 814-877; Today's Arkansas LDP rate for sorghum is: 0¢ Corn Cash bid for January at Memphis   490 to - - -;   new crop at Memphis   481 1/4 to - - -; Bids to farmers at River Elevators  472 to 487 Chicago Futures: Mar down  1/2  at  502    May unchanged    at  514 3/4    Jul unchanged    at  525 1/4    Dec down  1/4  at  521    Today's Arkansas LDP rate for corn is: 0¢ Grain Comment Wheat posted double digit gains in response to the weekly export report. USDA reported that 18 million bushels were sold to foreign buyers last week. The cumulative sales total is now 20 million bushels larger than USDA’s forecast for the entire year. Combine the strong demand with a smaller than expected U.S. plantings estimate and potential weather related crop problems and new crop wheat looks to have additional upside potential. Cotton & Rice  Date: January 17, 2008 Cotton Spot Price, Grade 41 Staple 34: Memphis up 61 at  6717   Greenwood up  61 at 6717 New York Futures: Mar up  61  at  7192    May up  62  at  7365    Jul up  61  at  7549    Dec up  56  at  7999    Mar '09 up  49  at  8224  This week's LDP rate for cotton is  0 cents   The estimate for next week is  0 cents Cotton Comment Cotton managed to hold some of its early gains and close higher for the day. New crop December again tested the contract high of 80.56 cents before declining. Monday’s gap remains open and as such is a potential measuring gap or signal for additional gains. A close below 77.5 cents by the December contract would negate upside objectives. Below that last week’s low of 74.5 cents should provide good support. While there are ample stocks available for the 07-08 market year, it appears world production in ’08 will fall well below utilization. With the U.S. acreage expected to decline again this year it could mean a big reduction in stocks. No doubt cotton will have to compete for acreage in ’09. Between now and then we should see an overall positive situation develop. While price will have down periods the trend should be higher. Rice Long Grain Cash Bid for  Jan/Feb/Mar 1239/cwt  to  - - -   - - - - - -  to  - - - Chicago Futures: Mar down  1 1/2  at  1414    May unchanged    at  1447    Jul unchanged    at  1475    Sep up  5  at  1438    - - -   - - -  at  - - -  Today's Arkansas LDP rate for long grain rice is  0¢ medium grain rice is  0¢ Rice Comment Rice was essentially steady to higher as late selling pared early gains. The market remains extremely volatile and subject to wide swings. Yesterday’s low of $13.95 represents potential near term support. A close below that level will open the market to downside retracement objectives of $13.79, $13.53 and $13.26. Overall fundamentals remain supportive. Tighter U.S. and world stocks won’t improve although the Vietnam harvest will provide another export source. Any decline in beans and corn will provide relief for rice, however U.S. acreage could drop again this year. Cattle & Hogs  Date: January 17, 2008 Cattle As reported by Federal-State Market News, receipts were 2,744 head at sales in Charlotte, Ratcliff & Green Forest.  Compared with last week, feeder steers sold weak to $5 lower, heifers mostly steady to $3 lower . Steers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 115 to 125   500 to 550 lbs. 106 to 116   600 to 700 lbs. 92 to 102  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 101 to 109 Heifers:  Medium & Large Frame 1   400 to 450 lbs. 90 to 100  Medium & Large Frame 2   400 to 450 lbs. 85 to 95 Slaughter Cows, Boners 41   to   46 Light Weight 30 to 38 Bulls, Yield Grade   1   1000   to   2100 lbs.   50   to   57.50, high dressing 58 Midwest Steers   were steady to $.50 higher   at   88   to   89.50 Panhandle Steers   were steady to $.50 higher   at   88   to   89.50 Oklahoma City Feeders Steers n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - -   n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - - Heifers n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - -   n/a to - - - lbs. - - - to - - - Chicago Futures: Live Cattle: Feb up 85 at 9090   Jun down 5 at 9345 Feeders: Jan up 7 at 9705   Mar up 32 at 10130 Cattle Comment February live cattle spiked lower today before closing higher. Today’s low of $89.13 becomes initial support, with additional support at the contract low of $87.60. Other contracts were mixed, with the market continuing to be under pressure from slow product movement and concern about potentially heavy cattle sales. Hogs Peoria: were     steady   at   25.5   to   26 Chicago Futures: Feb up 75 at 5520   Jun up 240 at 7575 Sheep St. Paul sheep shorn slaughter lambs   at   n/a   to   - - - Hogs Comment Hog futures traded in a wide range today before closing solidly higher but well below the day’s high. Indications that cash prices have bottomed for now were supportive. Weather has slowed marketings in some areas, but not enough to cause concern about a backlog. Strong pork demand is a plus. February is still under pressure from its premium to cash prices. Poultry  Date: January 17, 2008 Eggs New York:  Ex. Lg. 156-160; Lg. 154-158; Med. 138-142; Chicago:  Ex. Lg. 145-153; Lg. 128-136; Med. 128-136; Eastern Region Turkeys Hens: 8-16 lbs. 71-75 Toms: 16-24 lbs. 71-75   Delmarva Broilers U.S. Grade A Trade sentiment was overall no better than steady. Supplies of all sizes were more than sufficient to handle trade needs. In production areas, live supplies were moderate at mixed, but mostly desirable weights. ---------------------------------------- HOW TO UNSUBSCRIBE You are receiving this newsletter because you requested that your e-mail address be added to the Arkansas Farm Bureau Market Report. To unsubscribe or change your subscription information, go to http://www.arfb.com/commodity_marketing/email/ ---------------------------------------- QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS? If you have any comments or questions about this e-newsletter please e-mail us at mktrpt@arfb.com Arkansas Farm Bureau 10720 Kanis Road Little Rock, AR 72211 501-224-4400 Copyright 2007 Arkansas Farm Bureau, Inc. All rights reserved Terms of Use