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| ARKANSAS FARM BUREAU ELECTRONIC NEWSLETTER Bi-Weekly Market Briefings for 11-06-2009 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- http://www.arfb.com Soybeans have traded sideways over the past four weeks, with big moves both up and down. The weather-delayed harvest has reduced the bearish implications of a potentially big crop. Continued bad weather has reduced potential yield and capped this year’s production number. In addition to weather, outside markets have been a driving influence. A 14-month low in the dollar provided support, as have gains in crude oil and equities. However, reversals in those markets often drive soybeans and other grains as well. Price tends to move with equities and crude oil and opposite the dollar. That trend is expected to continue. Support at $9.60 and resistance at $10.28 are key price levels. A close to either side will suggest further movement in that direction. As harvest moves into high gear, corn is testing trendline support. A break in the rain has allowed farmers to make headway on a stalled fall harvest. That in itself would tend to pressure the market. However, questions about how the weather affected losses and quality will keep traders concerned for some time. Like soybeans, corn will be influenced by outside markets, which may or may not have any connection to actual fundamentals. December support is located in the $3.60–$3.65 area, while resistance is the recent high of $4.13. On the downside, a close below $3.47 would be bearish. Wheat lost momentum. During late October, July 2010 futures climbed upwards of $4.25 over concerns about planting conditions for next year’s crop. Farmers’ inability to harvest full crops has limited their ability to plant wheat. Big U.S. and world supplies capped above $6, which becomes resistance. Recently, the market worked itself into a sideways pattern around $5. Support is the Oct. 2 contract low of $4.83 ¾. For the second time in recent weeks, December cotton failed to hold a move above 69 cents. There is little question weather has cut potential yields and damaged quality in the Midsouth crop. Supply will be less than projected. On the other hand, demand is still questionable as the United States and other countries continue to work through the economic downturn. In the long run, cotton will need to work higher. After clearing resistance at 69–70 cents, the old resistance around 77 cents may be the next objective. Support starts at 65–66 cents. January rice futures broke resistance at $14.50 late last week. The move came after news that India lifted a long-time import ban. That suggests they will import rice this year, as opposed to be being an exporter. “How much?” and “When?” remain the questions. A delayed harvest in the southern United States and questions about quality have further boosted prices. Prospects of business from Iraq was also a positive factor. With November nearing expiration, January becomes the lead month. A move above 415 suggests a weekly chart objective near $15.80 may be attainable. Cattle futures have retreated from recent highs, but are finding support from firmer cutout values. Packer margins are still in the red, though, so that will keep a lid on futures for the near term. Two deaths and a ground-beef recall associated with e-coli contamination in New England have so far not affected the market. Stronger corn prices are limiting the upside for feeder futures. December live cattle futures have resistance at the recent high around $88 and support at the contract low of $83.50. Hog futures have rallied in recent days. Demand appears to have improved this fall, as slaughter numbers crept higher and prices rose $3-$4. News that China will lift its ban on U.S. pork imports was also a positive factor. December has chart-gap resistance between $57.75–$58.30. Contact: • Gene Martin (501) 228-1330, gene.martin@arfb.com . • Brandy Carroll (501) 228-1268, brandy.carroll@arfb.com . • Bruce Tencleve (501) 228-1856, bruce.tencleve@arfb.com . • Matt King (501) 228-1297, matt.king@arfb.com . -------------------------------------------------------------------------- We promised you your own bank, and here it is - www.farmbureaubank.com Created by members who understand your financial needs like no other bank can. Backed by the strength, stability and leadership of Farm Bureau. Go ahead. See what better banking is all about. Call 1-800-492-FARM Personal Bankers are available Monday - Friday, 7am to 7pm CST -------------------------------------------------------------------------- QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS? If you have any comments or questions about this e-newsletter please e-mail us at: mktrpt@arfb.com -------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------- HOW TO UNSUBSCRIBE You are receiving this newsletter because you requested that your e-mail address be added to the Arkansas Farm Bureau Market Report. To unsubscribe or change your subscription information, go to http://www.arfb.com/commodity_marketing/email/ ---------------------------------------- QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS? If you have any comments or questions about this e-newsletter please e-mail us at mktrpt@arfb.com Arkansas Farm Bureau Copyright 2009  |
